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Predicting the public health impact of a malaria transmission-blocking vaccine.

ABSTRACT: Transmission-blocking vaccines that interrupt malaria transmission from humans to mosquitoes are being tested in early clinical trials. The activity of such a vaccine is commonly evaluated using membrane-feeding assays. Understanding the field efficacy of such a vaccine requires knowledge of how heavily infected wild, naturally blood-fed mosquitoes are, as this indicates how difficult it will be to block transmission. Here we use data on naturally infected mosquitoes collected in Burkina Faso to translate the laboratory-estimated activity into an estimated activity in the field. A transmission dynamics model is then utilised to predict a transmission-blocking vaccine's public health impact alongside existing interventions. The model suggests that school-aged children are an attractive population to target for vaccination. Benefits of vaccination are distributed across the population, averting the greatest number of cases in younger children. Utilising a transmission-blocking vaccine alongside existing interventions could have a substantial impact against malaria.

SUBMITTER: Challenger JD

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7940395 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting the public health impact of a malaria transmission-blocking vaccine.

Challenger Joseph D JD Olivera Mesa Daniela D Da Dari F DF Yerbanga R Serge RS Lefèvre Thierry T Cohuet Anna A Churcher Thomas S TS

Nature communications 20210308 1

Transmission-blocking vaccines that interrupt malaria transmission from humans to mosquitoes are being tested in early clinical trials. The activity of such a vaccine is commonly evaluated using membrane-feeding assays. Understanding the field efficacy of such a vaccine requires knowledge of how heavily infected wild, naturally blood-fed mosquitoes are, as this indicates how difficult it will be to block transmission. Here we use data on naturally infected mosquitoes collected in Burkina Faso to ...[more]

PMID: 33686061

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Project description:BackgroundThe RTS,S malaria vaccine may soon be licensed. Models of impact of such vaccines have mainly considered deployment via the World Health Organization's Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) in areas of stable endemic transmission of Plasmodium falciparum, and have been calibrated for such settings. Their applicability to low transmission settings is unclear. Evaluations of the efficiency of different deployment strategies in diverse settings should consider uncertainties in model structure.Methods and findingsAn ensemble of 14 individual-based stochastic simulation models of P. falciparum dynamics, with differing assumptions about immune decay, transmission heterogeneity, and treatment access, was constructed. After fitting to an extensive library of field data, each model was used to predict the likely health benefits of RTS,S deployment, via EPI (with or without catch-up vaccinations), supplementary vaccination of school-age children, or mass vaccination every 5 y. Settings with seasonally varying transmission, with overall pre-intervention entomological inoculation rates (EIRs) of two, 11, and 20 infectious bites per person per annum, were considered. Predicted benefits of EPI vaccination programs over the simulated 14-y time horizon were dependent on duration of protection. Nevertheless, EPI strategies (with an initial catch-up phase) averted the most deaths per dose at the higher EIRs, although model uncertainty increased with EIR. At two infectious bites per person per annum, mass vaccination strategies substantially reduced transmission, leading to much greater health effects per dose, even at modest coverage.ConclusionsIn higher transmission settings, EPI strategies will be most efficient, but vaccination additional to the EPI in targeted low transmission settings, even at modest coverage, might be more efficient than national-level vaccination of infants. The feasibility and economics of mass vaccination, and the circumstances under which vaccination will avert epidemics, remain unclear. The approach of using an ensemble of models provides more secure conclusions than a single-model approach, and suggests greater confidence in predictions of health effects for lower transmission settings than for higher ones.

Project description:Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence has increased in Latin America and Asia and is responsible for nearly 74.1% of malaria cases in Latin America. Immune responses to P. vivax are less well characterized than those to P. falciparum, partly because P. vivax is more difficult to cultivate in the laboratory. While antibodies are known to play an important role in P. vivax disease control, few studies have evaluated responses to P. vivax sexual stage antigens. We collected sera or plasma samples from P. vivax-infected subjects from Brazil (n = 70) and Cambodia (n = 79) to assess antibody responses to domain 1 of the gametocyte/gamete stage protein Pvs230 (Pvs230D1M). We found that 27.1% (19/70) and 26.6% (21/79) of subjects from Brazil and Cambodia, respectively, presented with detectable antibody responses to Pvs230D1M antigen. The most frequent subclasses elicited in response to Pvs230D1M were IgG1 and IgG3. Although age did not correlate significantly with Pvs230D1M antibody levels overall, we observed significant differences between age strata. Hemoglobin concentration inversely correlated with Pvs230D1M antibody levels in Brazil, but not in Cambodia. Additionally, we analyzed the antibody response against Pfs230D1M, the P. falciparum ortholog of Pvs230D1M. We detected antibodies to Pfs230D1M in 7.2 and 16.5% of Brazilian and Cambodian P. vivax-infected subjects. Depletion of Pvs230D1M IgG did not impair the response to Pfs230D1M, suggesting pre-exposure to P. falciparum, or co-infection. We also analyzed IgG responses to sporozoite protein PvCSP (11.4 and 41.8% in Brazil and Cambodia, respectively) and to merozoite protein PvDBP-RII (67.1 and 48.1% in Brazil and Cambodia, respectively), whose titers also inversely correlated with hemoglobin concentration only in Brazil. These data establish patterns of seroreactivity to sexual stage Pvs230D1M and show similar antibody responses among P. vivax-infected subjects from regions of differing transmission intensity in Brazil and Cambodia.

Dataset Information

Predicting the public health impact of a malaria transmission-blocking vaccine.

Publications

Predicting the public health impact of a malaria transmission-blocking vaccine.

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