Dataset Information

Clinician Accuracy in Identifying and Predicting Organ Dysfunction in Critically Ill Children.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

To determine clinician accuracy in the identification and prediction of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome.

Design

Prospective cohort study.

Setting

University of Michigan's C.S. Mott Children's Hospital PICU.

Patients

Patients admitted to the PICU with an anticipated PICU length of stay greater than 48 hours.

Interventions

None.

Measurements and main results

For each patient, the clinical team (attending, fellow, resident/nurse practitioner) was surveyed regarding existing and anticipated organ dysfunction. The primary outcomes were clinicians' accuracy at identifying multiple organ dysfunction syndrome and predicting new or progressive multiple organ dysfunction syndrome, compared to the objective assessment of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome using Proulx criteria. We also measured sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values, and negative and positive likelihood ratios of clinician assessments. We tested for differences in accuracy by clinician type using chi-square tests. Clinicians rated their confidence in prediction on a 5-point Likert scale. There were 476 eligible PICU admissions, for whom 1,218 surveys were completed. Multiple organ dysfunction syndrome was present in 89 patients (18.7%) at enrollment, and new or progressive multiple organ dysfunction syndrome occurred in 39 (8.2%). Clinicians correctly identified multiple organ dysfunction syndrome with 79.9% accuracy and predicted additional organ dysfunction with 82.6% accuracy. However, the positive and negative likelihood ratios for new or progressive multiple organ dysfunction syndrome prediction were 3.0 and 0.7, respectively, indicating a weak relationship between the clinician prediction and development of new or progressive multiple organ dysfunction syndrome. The positive predictive value of new or progressive multiple organ dysfunction syndrome prediction was just 22.1%. We found no differences in accuracy by clinician type for either identification of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (80.2% vs 78.2% vs 81.0%; p = 0.57) or prediction of new or progressive multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (84.8% vs 82.8% vs 80.3%; p = 0.26) for attendings, fellows, and residents/nurse practitioners, respectively. There was a weak correlation between the confidence and accuracy of prediction (pairwise correlation coefficient, 0.26; p < 0.001).

Conclusions

PICU clinicians correctly identified multiple organ dysfunction syndrome and predicted new or progressive multiple organ dysfunction syndrome with 80% accuracy. However, only 8% of patients developed new or progressive multiple organ dysfunction syndrome, so accuracy was largely due to true negative predictions. The positive predictive value for new or progressive multiple organ dysfunction syndrome prediction was just 22%. Accuracy did not differ by clinician type, but was correlated with self-rated confidence and was higher for negative predictions.

SUBMITTER: Carlton EF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7959260 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundTwo sets of diagnostic criteria of paediatric multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) were published by Proulx in 1996 and by Goldstein in 2005. We hypothesized that this changes the epidemiology of MODS. Thus, we determined the epidemiology of MODS, according to these two sets of diagnostic criteria, we studied the intra- and inter-observer reproducibility of each set of diagnostic criteria, and we compared the association between cases of MODS at paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) entry, as diagnosed by each set of diagnostic criteria, and 90-day all-cause mortality.MethodsAll consecutive patients admitted to the tertiary care PICU of Sainte-Justine Hospital, from April 21, 2009 to April 20, 2010, were considered eligible for enrolment into this prospective observational cohort study. The exclusion criteria were gestational age < 40 weeks, age < 3 days or > 18 years at PICU entry, pregnancy, admission immediately after delivery. No patients were censored. Daily monitoring using medical chart ended when the patient died or was discharged from PICU. Mortality was monitored up to death, hospital discharge, or 90 days post PICU entry, whatever happened first. Concordance rate and kappa score were calculated to assess reproducibility. The number of MODS identified with Proulx and Goldstein definitions was compared using 2-by-2 contingency tables. Student's t test or Wilcoxon signed-ranked test was used to compare continuous variables with normal or abnormal distribution, respectively. We performed a Kaplan-Meier survival analysis to assess the association between MODS at PICU entry and 90-day mortality.ResultsThe occurrence of MODS was monitored daily and prospectively in 842 consecutive patients admitted to the PICU of Sainte-Justine Hospital over 1 year. According to Proulx and Goldstein diagnostic criteria, 180 (21.4 %) and 314 patients (37.3 %) had MODS over PICU stay, respectively. Concordance of MODS diagnosis over PICU stay was 81.3 % (95 % CI 78.6-83.9 %), and kappa score was 0.56 (95 % CI 0.50-0.61). Discordance was mainly attributable to cardiovascular or neurological dysfunction criteria. The proportion of patients with MODS at PICU entry who died within 90 days was higher with MODS diagnosed with Proulx criteria (17.8 vs. 11.5 %, p = 0.038), as well as the likelihood ratio of death (4.84 vs. 2.37). On the other hand, 90-day survival rate of patients without MODS at PICU entry was similar (98.6 vs. 98.9 % (p = 0.73).ConclusionsProulx and Goldstein diagnostic criteria of paediatric MODS are not equivalent. The epidemiology of paediatric MODS varies depending on which set of diagnostic criteria is applied.