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Identifying organ dysfunction trajectory-based subphenotypes in critically ill patients with COVID-19.

ABSTRACT: COVID-19-associated respiratory failure offers the unprecedented opportunity to evaluate the differential host response to a uniform pathogenic insult. Understanding whether there are distinct subphenotypes of severe COVID-19 may offer insight into its pathophysiology. Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score is an objective and comprehensive measurement that measures dysfunction severity of six organ systems, i.e., cardiovascular, central nervous system, coagulation, liver, renal, and respiration. Our aim was to identify and characterize distinct subphenotypes of COVID-19 critical illness defined by the post-intubation trajectory of SOFA score. Intubated COVID-19 patients at two hospitals in New York city were leveraged as development and validation cohorts. Patients were grouped into mild, intermediate, and severe strata by their baseline post-intubation SOFA. Hierarchical agglomerative clustering was performed within each stratum to detect subphenotypes based on similarities amongst SOFA score trajectories evaluated by Dynamic Time Warping. Distinct worsening and recovering subphenotypes were identified within each stratum, which had distinct 7-day post-intubation SOFA progression trends. Patients in the worsening suphenotypes had a higher mortality than those in the recovering subphenotypes within each stratum (mild stratum, 29.7% vs. 10.3%, p = 0.033; intermediate stratum, 29.3% vs. 8.0%, p = 0.002; severe stratum, 53.7% vs. 22.2%, p < 0.001). Pathophysiologic biomarkers associated with progression were distinct at each stratum, including findings suggestive of inflammation in low baseline severity of illness versus hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis in higher baseline severity of illness. The findings suggest that there are clear worsening and recovering subphenotypes of COVID-19 respiratory failure after intubation, which are more predictive of outcomes than baseline severity of illness. Distinct progression biomarkers at differential baseline severity of illness suggests a heterogeneous pathobiology in the progression of COVID-19 respiratory failure.

SUBMITTER: Su C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8342520 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ObjectivesTo determine clinician accuracy in the identification and prediction of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome.DesignProspective cohort study.SettingUniversity of Michigan's C.S. Mott Children's Hospital PICU.PatientsPatients admitted to the PICU with an anticipated PICU length of stay greater than 48 hours.InterventionsNone.Measurements and main resultsFor each patient, the clinical team (attending, fellow, resident/nurse practitioner) was surveyed regarding existing and anticipated organ dysfunction. The primary outcomes were clinicians' accuracy at identifying multiple organ dysfunction syndrome and predicting new or progressive multiple organ dysfunction syndrome, compared to the objective assessment of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome using Proulx criteria. We also measured sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values, and negative and positive likelihood ratios of clinician assessments. We tested for differences in accuracy by clinician type using chi-square tests. Clinicians rated their confidence in prediction on a 5-point Likert scale. There were 476 eligible PICU admissions, for whom 1,218 surveys were completed. Multiple organ dysfunction syndrome was present in 89 patients (18.7%) at enrollment, and new or progressive multiple organ dysfunction syndrome occurred in 39 (8.2%). Clinicians correctly identified multiple organ dysfunction syndrome with 79.9% accuracy and predicted additional organ dysfunction with 82.6% accuracy. However, the positive and negative likelihood ratios for new or progressive multiple organ dysfunction syndrome prediction were 3.0 and 0.7, respectively, indicating a weak relationship between the clinician prediction and development of new or progressive multiple organ dysfunction syndrome. The positive predictive value of new or progressive multiple organ dysfunction syndrome prediction was just 22.1%. We found no differences in accuracy by clinician type for either identification of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (80.2% vs 78.2% vs 81.0%; p = 0.57) or prediction of new or progressive multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (84.8% vs 82.8% vs 80.3%; p = 0.26) for attendings, fellows, and residents/nurse practitioners, respectively. There was a weak correlation between the confidence and accuracy of prediction (pairwise correlation coefficient, 0.26; p < 0.001).ConclusionsPICU clinicians correctly identified multiple organ dysfunction syndrome and predicted new or progressive multiple organ dysfunction syndrome with 80% accuracy. However, only 8% of patients developed new or progressive multiple organ dysfunction syndrome, so accuracy was largely due to true negative predictions. The positive predictive value for new or progressive multiple organ dysfunction syndrome prediction was just 22%. Accuracy did not differ by clinician type, but was correlated with self-rated confidence and was higher for negative predictions.

Project description:IntroductionMultiple organ dysfunction (MOD) is a common pathway to morbidity and death in critically ill children. Defining organ dysfunction is challenging, as we lack a complete understanding of the complex pathobiology. Current pediatric organ dysfunction criteria assign the same diagnostic value-the same "weight"- to each organ system. While each organ dysfunction in isolation contributes to the outcome, there are likely complex interactions between multiple failing organs that are not simply additive.ObjectiveDetermine whether certain combinations of organ system dysfunctions have a significant interaction associated with higher risk of morbidity or mortality in critically ill children.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective observational cohort study of critically ill children at two large academic medical centers from 2010 and 2018. Patients were included in the study if they had at least two organ dysfunctions by day 3 of PICU admission based on the Pediatric Organ Dysfunction Information Update Mandate (PODIUM) criteria. Mortality was described as absolute number of deaths and mortality rate. Combinations of two pediatric organ dysfunctions were analyzed with interaction terms as independent variables and mortality or persistent MOD as the dependent variable in logistic regression models.ResultsOverall, 7,897 patients met inclusion criteria and 446 patients (5.6%) died. The organ dysfunction interactions that were significantly associated with the highest absolute number of deaths were cardiovascular + endocrinologic, cardiovascular + neurologic, and cardiovascular + respiratory. Additionally, the interactions associated with the highest mortality rates were liver + cardiovascular, respiratory + hematologic, and respiratory + renal. Among patients with persistent MOD, the most common organ dysfunctions with significant interaction terms were neurologic + respiratory, hematologic + immunologic, and endocrinologic + respiratory. Further analysis using classification and regression trees (CART) demonstrated that the absence of respiratory and liver dysfunction was associated with the lowest likelihood of mortality.Implications and future directionsCertain combinations of organ dysfunctions are associated with a higher risk of persistent MOD or death. Notably, the three most common organ dysfunction interactions were associated with 75% of the mortality in our cohort. Critically ill children with MOD presenting with these combinations of organ dysfunctions warrant further study.

Project description:Purposethe pathophysiologic mechanisms explaining differences in clinical outcomes following COVID-19 are not completely described. This study aims to investigate antibody responses in critically ill patients with COVID-19 in relation to inflammation, organ failure and 30-day survival.MethodsAll patients with PCR-verified COVID-19 and gave consent, and who were admitted to a tertiary Intensive care unit (ICU) in Sweden during March-September 2020 were included. Demography, repeated blood samples and measures of organ function were collected. Analyses of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies (IgM, IgA and IgG) in plasma were performed and correlated to patient outcome and biomarkers of inflammation and organ failure.ResultsA total of 115 patients (median age 62 years, 77% male) were included prospectively. All patients developed severe respiratory dysfunction, and 59% were treated with invasive ventilation. Thirty-day mortality was 22.6% for all included patients. Patients negative for any anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody in plasma during ICU admission had higher 30-day mortality compared to patients positive for antibodies. Patients positive for IgM had more ICU-, ventilator-, renal replacement therapy- and vasoactive medication-free days. IgA antibody concentrations correlated negatively with both SAPS3 and maximal SOFA-score and IgM-levels correlated negatively with SAPS3. Patients with antibody levels below the detection limit had higher plasma levels of extracellular histones on day 1 and elevated levels of kidney and cardiac biomarkers, but showed no signs of increased inflammation, complement activation or cytokine release. After adjusting for age, positive IgM and IgG antibodies were still associated with increased 30-day survival, with odds ratio (OR) 7.1 (1.5-34.4) and 4.2 (1.1-15.7), respectively.ConclusionIn patients with severe COVID-19 requiring intensive care, a poor antibody response is associated with organ failure, systemic histone release and increased 30-day mortality.

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Identifying organ dysfunction trajectory-based subphenotypes in critically ill patients with COVID-19.

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