The impact of environmental variables on the spread of COVID-19 in the Republic of Korea.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Lim YK
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7966806 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) remains a serious issue, and the role played by meteorological indicators in the process of virus spread has been a topic of academic discussion. Previous studies reached different conclusions due to inconsistent methods, disparate meteorological indicators, and specific time periods or regions. This manuscript is based on seven daily meteorological indicators in the NCEP reanalysis data set and COVID-19 data repository of Johns Hopkins University from 22 January 2020 to 1 June 2021. Results showed that worldwide average temperature and precipitable water (PW) had the strongest correlation (ρ > 0.9, p < 0.001) with the confirmed COVID-19 cases per day from 22 January to 31 August 2020. From 22 January to 31 August 2020, positive correlations were observed between the temperature/PW and confirmed COVID-19 cases/deaths in the northern hemisphere, whereas negative correlations were recorded in the southern hemisphere. From 1 September to 31 December 2020, the opposite results were observed. Correlations were weak throughout the near full year, and weak negative correlations were detected worldwide (|ρ| < 0.4, p ≤ 0.05); the lag time had no obvious effect. As the latitude increased, the temperature and PW of the maximum confirmed COVID-19 cases/deaths per day generally showed a decreasing trend; the 2020-year fitting functions of the response latitude pattern were verified by the 2021 data. Meteorological indicators, although not a decisive factor, may influence the virus spread by affecting the virus survival rates and enthusiasm of human activities. The temperature or PW threshold suitable for the spread of COVID-19 may increase as the latitude decreases.
| S-EPMC8923516 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This study describes the epidemiological characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) based on reported cases from long-term care facilities. As of April 20th, 2020, 3 long-term care facilities in a metropolitan area of South Korea had reported cases of COVID-19. These facilities' employees were presumed to be the sources of infection. There were 2 nursing hospitals that did not report any additional cases. One nursing home had a total of 25 cases, with an attack rate of 51.4% (95% CI 35.6-67.0), and a fatality rate of 38.9% (95% CI 20.3-61.4) among residents. The results from this study suggest that early detection and maintenance of infection control minimizes the risk of rapid transmission.
| S-EPMC7442447 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Objectives:Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreaks in nursing facilities can easily lead to a high rate of infection and fatality. A surge in newly infected cases in the first quarter of 2020 in Gyeongsan-si, in the Republic of Korea, was followed by several outbreaks in nursing facilities in the same area. The aim of this study is to report on the epidemiological investigation and the management to reduce the infection rate in nursing facilities for older adults. Methods:The municipal government and the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention performed an epidemiological investigation into 5 nursing facilities that reported a high number of COVID-19 infection cases from February to May 2020. COVID-19 infected cases in the facilities were investigated to identify the infection routes, and the fatality rate of the 5 facilities. Results:The 5 facilities had a combined fatality rate of 12.2% (9 deceased among the 74 infected cases). The median age of the deceased was 87 years old (range: 82-91). The infection was first identified on February 27th, 2020, peaked on March 6th, and was last detected on March 24th, 2020. Conclusion:Difficulties specific to such facilities included the delay in the recognition of symptoms and limitation in distancing. Tailored strategies such as daily monitoring of symptoms and proactive COVID-19 screening of quarantined residents, contributed to a decline in the infections in the facilities.
| S-EPMC7442439 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This study aimed to determine the presence of SARS-CoV-2 on surfaces frequently touched by COVID-19 patients, and assess the scope of contamination and transmissibility in facilities where the outbreaks occurred. In the course of this epidemiological investigation, a total of 80 environmental specimens were collected from 6 hospitals (68 specimens) and 2 "mass facilities" (6 specimens from a rehabilitation center and 6 specimens from an apartment building complex). Specific reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction targeting of RNA-dependent RNA polymerase, and envelope genes, were used to identify the presence of this novel coronavirus. The 68 specimens from 6 hospitals (A, B, C, D, E, and G), where prior disinfection/cleaning had been performed before environmental sampling, tested negative for SARS-CoV-2. However, 2 out of 12 specimens (16.7%) from 2 "mass facilities" (F and H), where prior disinfection/cleaning had not taken place, were positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA polymerase, and envelope genes. These results suggest that prompt disinfection and cleaning of potentially contaminated surfaces is an effective infection control measure. By inactivating SARS-CoV-2 with disinfection/cleaning the infectivity and transmission of the virus is blocked. This investigation of environmental sampling may help in the understanding of risk assessment of the COVID-19 outbreak in "mass facilities" and provide guidance in using effective disinfectants on contaminated surfaces.
| S-EPMC7282419 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWhile numerous studies have assessed the effects of environmental (meteorological variables and air pollutants) and socioeconomic variables on the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, many of them, however, have significant methodological limitations and errors that could call their results into question. Our main objective in this paper is to assess the methodological limitations in studies that evaluated the effects of environmental and socioeconomic variables on the spread of COVID-19.Main bodyWe carried out a systematic review by conducting searches in the online databases PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus up to December 31, 2020. We first excluded those studies that did not deal with SAR-CoV-2 or COVID-19, preprints, comments, opinion or purely narrative papers, reviews and systematic literature reviews. Among the eligible full-text articles, we then excluded articles that were purely descriptive and those that did not include any type of regression model. We evaluated the risk of bias in six domains: confounding bias, control for population, control of spatial and/or temporal dependence, control of non-linearities, measurement errors and statistical model. Of the 5631 abstracts initially identified, we were left with 132 studies on which to carry out the qualitative synthesis. Of the 132 eligible studies, we evaluated 63.64% of the studies as high risk of bias, 19.70% as moderate risk of bias and 16.67% as low risk of bias.ConclusionsAll the studies we have reviewed, to a greater or lesser extent, have methodological limitations. These limitations prevent conclusions being drawn concerning the effects environmental (meteorological and air pollutants) and socioeconomic variables have had on COVID-19 outcomes. However, we dare to argue that the effects of these variables, if they exist, would be indirect, based on their relationship with social contact.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12302-021-00550-7.
| S-EPMC8432444 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn the Republic of Korea (ROK), social distancing and public behavior changes mitigated COVID-19 spread. However, a second wave of the epidemic is expected in the fall if neither vaccine nor antiviral drugs become available. This study investigated the impact of non-pharmaceutical measures on short- and long-term outbreak dynamics.MethodsA mathematical model based on Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model is developed considering isolated and behavior-changed groups. Using the least-squares fitting method, transmission and behavior change rates were estimated using cases reported from February 16 to April 20, 2020.FindingsThe estimated transmission rate of COVID-19 was 4·6180 and behavior change rate was 2·6044. The model predicted the number of new cases to continuously decrease, with less than one case expected after May 6, 2020. Concurrently, a 25% reduction in behavioral changes during the outbreak would increase the case count by 60,000, resulting in 4,000 cases at maximum, exceeding the medical system's capacity. As behavioral restrictions are eased, local transmission will likely increase, with forecasted second wave peak in October 2020.InterpretationSocial distancing and public behavior changes have curbed the spread of COVID-19 in the ROK. Mathematical modeling demonstrates the importance of these measures in reducing and delaying outbreaks. Nevertheless, non-pharmaceutical interventions cannot eliminate the disease. In the future, vaccines and antiviral treatments combined with social distancing and public behavior changes will be paramount to ending COVID-19 epidemic.
| S-EPMC7514094 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background:The recent COVID-19 pandemic has emerged as a threat to global health. Though current evidence on the epidemiology of the disease is emerging, very little is known about the predictors of recovery. Objectives:To describe the epidemiology of confirmed COVID-19 patients in the Republic of Korea and identify predictors of recovery. Materials and Methods:Using publicly available data for confirmed COVID-19 cases from the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from January 20, 2020, to April 30, 2020, we undertook descriptive analyses of cases stratified by sex, age group, place of exposure, date of confirmation, and province. Correlation was tested among all predictors (sex, age group, place of exposure, and province) with Pearson's correlation coefficient. Associations between recovery from COVID-19 and predictors were estimated using a multivariable logistic regression model. Results:Majority of the confirmed cases were females (56%), 20-29 age group (24.3%), and primarily from three provinces-Gyeongsangbuk-do (36.9%), Gyeonggi-do (20.5%), and Seoul (17.1%). The case fatality ratio was 2.1%, and 41.6% cases recovered. Older patients, patients from provinces such as Daegu, Gyeonggi-do, Gyeongsangbuk-do, Jeju-do, Jeollabuk-do, and Jeollanam-do, and those contracting the disease from healthcare settings had lower recovery. Conclusions:Our study adds to the very limited evidence base on potential predictors of recovery among confirmed COVID-19 cases. We call additional research to explore the predictors of recovery and support development of policies to protect the vulnerable patient groups.
| S-EPMC7395990 | biostudies-literature
Project description:At the end of 2019, a novel coronavirus, designated as SARS-CoV-2, emerged in Wuhan, China and was identified as the causal pathogen of COVID-19. The epidemic scale of COVID-19 has increased dramatically, with confirmed cases increasing across China and globally. Understanding the potential affecting factors involved in COVID-19 transmission will be of great significance in containing the spread of the epidemic. Environmental and meteorological factors might impact the occurrence of COVID-19, as these have been linked to various diseases, including severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), whose causative pathogens belong to the same virus family as SARS-CoV-2. We collected daily data of COVID-19 confirmed cases, air quality and meteorological variables of 33 locations in China for the outbreak period of 29 January 2020 to 15 February 2020. The association between air quality index (AQI) and confirmed cases was estimated through a Poisson regression model, and the effects of temperature and humidity on the AQI-confirmed cases association were analyzed. The results show that the effect of AQI on confirmed cases associated with an increase in each unit of AQI was statistically significant in several cities. The lag effect of AQI on the confirmed cases was statistically significant on lag day 1 (relative risk (RR) = 1.0009, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.0004, 1.0013), day 2 (RR = 1.0007, 95% CI: 1.0003, 1.0012) and day 3 (RR = 1.0008, 95% CI: 1.0003, 1.0012). The AQI effect on the confirmed cases might be stronger in the temperature range of 10 °C ? T < 20 °C than in other temperature ranges, while the RR of COVID-19 transmission associated with AQI was higher in the relative humidity (RH) range of 10% ? RH < 20%. Results may suggest an enhanced impact of AQI on the COVID-19 spread under low RH.
| S-EPMC7204718 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The general elections for the 21st National Assembly in the Republic of Korea were scheduled for April 15th, 2020, which was during the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak. To ensure a safe election, the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) recommended several public health measures. The KCDC developed key interventions after reviewing the general election strategy that targeted COVID-19 patients and individuals isolating at home. Four voters who participated in the election tested positive, but did not contract COVID-19 during voting. The results demonstrated that the KCDC minimized the spread of infection in the community during the election. The measures implemented by KCDC during the election held under a COVID-19 outbreak cannot be generalized to elections as a whole because cultural and national consciousness vary between countries. Nevertheless, it demonstrates that the systemic strategies and applications against the pandemic can minimize the possibility of viral spread.
| S-EPMC7442438 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundRisk factors for child maltreatment have been exacerbated during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially due to economic downfalls leading to parental job losses and poor mental health.ObjectiveThis study aimed to examine the association between child maltreatment and unemployment rate in the Republic of Korea.Participants and settingNationally representative data at the province level were used.MethodsThe monthly excess number of hotline calls related to child maltreatment during the COVID-19 pandemic was estimated for each province. Fixed effects regressions was used to examine the relationship between the excess number of hotline calls and unemployment rate.ResultsThe average excess number of hotline calls was significantly negative in the early stage of the pandemic, but became significantly positive afterwards except for some months with averages not statistically different from zero. The regression results showed that an increase of male unemployment rate by 1% was significantly associated with an increase in the excess number of hotline calls by 0.15-0.17 per 10,000 children for most dependent variables for the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. The statistical significance of female unemployment rate was mixed with the opposite sign of the coefficient to that of male unemployment. Overall unemployment rate was not significant.ConclusionsThis study suggests that disruptions in child welfare services should be avoided to prevent underreporting of or delayed responses to suspected cases. Also, policies need to be designed considering potential pathways from economic downfalls, especially male unemployment, to child maltreatment.
| S-EPMC8752450 | biostudies-literature