Dataset Information

Body mass index trajectories during mid to late life and risks of mortality and cardiovascular outcomes: Results from four prospective cohorts.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Our understanding of the weight-outcome association mainly comes from single-time body mass index (BMI) measurement. However, data on long-term trajectories of within-person changes in BMI on diverse study outcomes are sparse. Therefore, this study is to determine the associations of individual BMI trajectories and cardiovascular outcomes.

Methods

The present analysis was based on data from 4 large prospective cohorts and restricted to participants aged ≥45 years with at least two BMI measurements. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals(95%CI) for each outcome according to different BMI trajectories were calculated in Cox regression models.

Findings

The final sample comprised 29,311 individuals (mean age 58.31 years, and 77.31% were white), with a median 4 BMI measurements used in this study. During a median follow-up of 21.16 years, there were a total of 10,192 major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and 11,589 deaths. A U-shaped relation was seen with all study outcomes. Compared with maintaining stable weight, the multivariate adjusted HR for MACE were 1.53 (95%CI 1.40-1.66), 1.26 (95%CI 1.16-1.37) and 1.08 (95%CI 1.02-1.15) respectively for rapid, moderate and slow weight loss; 1.01 (95%CI 0.95-1.07), 1.13 (95%CI 1.05-1.21) and 1.29 (95%CI 1.20-1.40) respectively for slow, moderate and rapid weight gain. Identical patterns of association were observed for all other outcomes. The development of BMI differed markedly between the outcome-free individuals and those who went on to experience adverse events, generally beginning to diverge 10 years before the occurrence of the events.

Interpretation

Our findings may signal an underlying high-risk population and inspire future studies on weight management.

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China, Guangdong Natural Science Foundation.

SUBMITTER: Cheng YJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7985466 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundUnderstanding lifecourse trajectories of body-mass index (BMI) is important for identifying groups at high risk of poor health and potential target points for intervention. This study aimed to describe BMI trajectories from childhood to mid-adulthood in four population-based cohorts established in the 1970s and 1980s and to identify childhood sociodemographic factors related to trajectory membership.MethodsBetween Dec 17, 1970 and Dec 15, 1994, data were collected at the first visit from 9830 participants from the International Childhood Cardiovascular Cohort (i3C) Consortium, which includes participants from Australia (1985), Finland (1980) and the USA (1970-1994). Participants had at least three measures of height and weight, including one in childhood (6-18 years) and one in adulthood (>18 years), and were aged 30-49 years at last measurement. Latent Class Growth Mixture Modelling was used to identify lifecourse BMI trajectory groups and log multinomial regression models were fit to identify their childhood sociodemographic predictors.FindingsFive consistent BMI trajectory groups were identified amongst the four cohorts: persistently low (35.9-58.6%), improving from high (0.7-4.8%), progressing to moderate (9.3-43.7%), progressing to high (1.1-6.0%), and progressing to very high (0.7-1.3%). An additional three BMI trajectory groups were identified in some, but not all, cohorts: adult onset high (three cohorts; 1.8-20.7%), progressing to moderate-high (two cohorts; 5.2-13.8%), and relapsing yo-yoers (alternating upward and downward; one cohort; 1.3%). In pooled analyses, each predictor variable in childhood, including age, gender, parental education and race, was associated with increased likelihood of belonging to the most (e.g., improving from high) and least (e.g., progressing to very high) favourable BMI trajectory groups, suggesting a U-shaped (or inverse U-shaped) pattern of association.InterpretationFive consistent BMI trajectory groups were identified across four cohorts from Australia, Finland, and the USA, mainly across two eras of birth. While most participants remained on a persistently low trajectory (50%), many demonstrated worsening BMI trajectories (47%), with only few demonstrating improving trajectories (<5%). Age, gender, parental education, and race appear to be important predictors of BMI trajectory group membership and need consideration in preventive and management strategies.FundingThis study was supported by funding from the National Institutes of Health, National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (grant number R01 HL121230).

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