Modelling of optimal vaccination strategies in response to a bioterrorism associated smallpox outbreak.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Costantino V
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7993194 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:Smallpox was eradicated in the 1970s, but new outbreaks could be seeded by bioterrorism or accidental release. Substantial vaccine-induced morbidity and mortality make pre-emptive mass vaccination controversial, and if vaccination is voluntary, then there is a conflict between self- and group interests. This conflict can be framed as a tragedy of the commons, in which herd immunity plays the role of the commons, and free-riding (i.e. not vaccinating pre-emptively) is analogous to exploiting the commons. This game has been analysed previously for a particular post-outbreak vaccination scenario. We consider several post-outbreak vaccination scenarios and compare the expected increase in mortality that results from voluntary versus imposed vaccination. Below a threshold level of post-outbreak vaccination effort, expected mortality is independent of the level of response effort. A lag between an outbreak starting and a response being initiated increases the post-outbreak vaccination effort necessary to reduce mortality. For some post-outbreak vaccination scenarios, even modest response lags make it impractical to reduce mortality by increasing post-outbreak vaccination effort. In such situations, if decreasing the response lag is impossible, the only practical way to reduce mortality is to make the vaccine safer (greater post-outbreak vaccination effort leads only to fewer people vaccinating pre-emptively).
| S-EPMC4590493 | biostudies-literature
Project description:A novel statistical model based on a two-layer, contact and information, graph is suggested in order to study the influence of disease prevalence on voluntary general population vaccination during the COVID-19 outbreak. Details about the structure and number of susceptible, infectious, and recovered/vaccinated individuals from the contact layer are simultaneously transferred to the information layer. The ever-growing wealth of information that is becoming available about the COVID virus was modelled at each individual level by a simplified proxy predictor of the amount of disease spread. Each informed individual, a node in a heterogeneous graph, makes a decision about vaccination "motivated" by their benefit. The obtained results showed that disease information type, global or local, has a significant impact on an individual vaccination decision. A number of different scenarios were investigated. The scenarios showed that in the case of the stronger impact of globally broadcasted disease information, individuals tend to vaccinate in larger numbers at the same time when the infection has already spread within the population. If individuals make vaccination decisions based on locally available information, the vaccination rate is uniformly spread during infection outbreak duration. Prioritising elderly population vaccination leads to an increased number of infected cases and a higher reduction in mortality. The developed model accuracy allows the precise targeting of vaccination order depending on the individuals' number of social contacts. Precisely targeted vaccination, combined with pre-existing immunity, and public health measures can limit the infection to isolated hotspots inside the population, as well as significantly delay and lower the infection peak.
| S-EPMC8229990 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCirculating vaccine-derived poliovirus outbreaks are spreading more widely than anticipated, which has generated a crisis for the global polio eradication initiative. Effectively responding with vaccination activities requires a rapid risk assessment. This assessment is made difficult by the low case-to-infection ratio of type 2 poliovirus, variable transmissibility, changing population immunity, surveillance delays, and limited vaccine supply from the global stockpile. The geographical extent of responses have been highly variable between countries.MethodsWe develop a statistical spatio-temporal model of short-term, district-level poliovirus spread that incorporates known risk factors, including historical wild poliovirus transmission risk, routine immunization coverage, population immunity, and exposure to the outbreak virus.ResultsWe find that proximity to recent cVDPV2 cases is the strongest risk factor for spread of an outbreak, and find significant associations between population immunity, historical risk, routine immunization, and environmental surveillance (p < 0.05). We examine the fit of the model to type 2 vaccine derived poliovirus spread since 2016 and find that our model predicts the location of cVDPV2 cases well (AUC = 0.96). We demonstrate use of the model to estimate appropriate scope of outbreak response activities to current outbreaks.ConclusionAs type 2 immunity continues to decline following the cessation of tOPV in 2016, outbreak responses to new cVDPV2 detections will need to be faster and larger in scope. We provide a framework that can be used to support decisions on the appropriate size of a vaccination response when new detections are identified. While the model does not account for all relevant local factors that must be considered in the overall vaccination response, it enables a quantitative basis for outbreak response size.
| S-EPMC10109086 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Molecular subtyping of Bacillus anthracis played an important role in differentiating and identifying strains during the 2001 bioterrorism-associated outbreak. Because B. anthracis has a low level of genetic variability, only a few subtyping methods, with varying reliability, exist. We initially used multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) to subtype 135 B. anthracis isolates associated with the outbreak. All isolates were determined to be of genotype 62, the same as the Ames strain used in laboratories. We sequenced the protective antigen gene (pagA) from 42 representative outbreak isolates and determined they all had a pagA sequence indistinguishable from the Ames strain (PA genotype I). MLVA and pagA sequencing were also used on DNA from clinical specimens, making subtyping B. anthracis possible without an isolate. Use of high-resolution molecular subtyping determined that all outbreak isolates were indistinguishable by the methods used and probably originated from a single source. In addition, subtyping rapidly identified laboratory contaminants and nonoutbreak-related isolates.
| S-EPMC2730295 | biostudies-literature
Project description:To assess community needs for public information during a bioterrorism-related crisis, we simulated an intentional Rift Valley fever outbreak in a community in the southern part of the United States. We videotaped a series of simulated print and television "news reports" over a fictional 9-day crisis period and invited various groups (e.g., first-responders and their spouses or partners, journalists) within the selected community to view the videotape and respond to questions about their reactions. All responses were given anonymously. First-responders and their spouses or partners varied in their reactions about how the crisis affected family harmony and job performance. Local journalists exhibited considerable personal fear and confusion. All groups demanded, and put more trust in, information from local sources. These findings may have implications for risk communication during bioterrorism-related outbreaks.
| S-EPMC3001393 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We present a stochastic model for the spread of smallpox after a small number of index cases are introduced into a susceptible population. The model describes a branching process for the spread of the infection and the effects of intervention measures. We discuss scenarios in which ring vaccination of direct contacts of infected persons is sufficient to contain an epidemic. Ring vaccination can be successful if infectious cases are rapidly diagnosed. However, because of the inherent stochastic nature of epidemic outbreaks, both the size and duration of contained outbreaks are highly variable. Intervention requirements depend on the basic reproduction number (R0), for which different estimates exist. When faced with the decision of whether to rely on ring vaccination, the public health community should be aware that an epidemic might take time to subside even for an eventually successful intervention strategy.
| S-EPMC3323203 | biostudies-literature
Project description:34,354,966 active cases and 460,787 deaths because of COVID-19 pandemic were recorded on November 06, 2021, in India. To end this ongoing global COVID-19 pandemic, there is an urgent need to implement multiple population-wide policies like social distancing, testing more people and contact tracing. To predict the course of the pandemic and come up with a strategy to control it effectively, a compartmental model has been established. The following six stages of infection are taken into consideration: susceptible (S), asymptomatic infected (A), clinically ill or symptomatic infected (I), quarantine (Q), isolation (J) and recovered (R), collectively termed as SAIQJR. The qualitative behavior of the model and the stability of biologically realistic equilibrium points are investigated in terms of the basic reproduction number. We performed sensitivity analysis with respect to the basic reproduction number and obtained that the disease transmission rate has an impact in mitigating the spread of diseases. Moreover, considering the non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical intervention strategies as control functions, an optimal control problem is implemented to mitigate the disease fatality. To reduce the infected individuals and to minimize the cost of the controls, an objective functional has been constructed and solved with the aid of Pontryagin's maximum principle. The implementation of optimal control strategy at the start of a pandemic tends to decrease the intensity of epidemic peaks, spreading the maximal impact of an epidemic over an extended time period. Extensive numerical simulations show that the implementation of intervention strategy has an impact in controlling the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic. Further, our numerical solutions exhibit that the combination of three controls are more influential when compared with the combination of two controls as well as single control. Therefore, the implementation of all the three control strategies may help to mitigate novel coronavirus disease transmission at this present epidemic scenario.Supplementary informationThe online version supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11071-022-07235-7.
| S-EPMC8801045 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The COVID-19 outbreak has highlighted our vulnerability to novel infections. Faced with this threat and no effective treatment, in line with many other countries, the UK adopted enforced social distancing (lockdown) to reduce transmission-successfully reducing the reproductive number R below one. However, given the large pool of susceptible individuals that remain, complete relaxation of controls is likely to generate a substantial further outbreak. Vaccination remains the only foreseeable means of both containing the infection and returning to normal interactions and behaviour. Here, we consider the optimal targeting of vaccination within the UK, with the aim of minimising future deaths or quality adjusted life year (QALY) losses. We show that, for a range of assumptions on the action and efficacy of the vaccine, targeting older age groups first is optimal and may be sufficient to stem the epidemic if the vaccine prevents transmission as well as disease.
| S-EPMC8101958 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Smallpox has played an unparalleled role in human history and remains a significant potential threat to public health. Despite the historical significance of this disease, we know little about the underlying pathophysiology or the virulence mechanisms of the causative agent, variola virus. To improve our understanding of variola pathogenesis and variola-host interactions, we examined the molecular and cellular features of hemorrhagic smallpox in cynomolgus macaques. We used cDNA microarrays to analyze host gene expression patterns in sequential blood samples from each of 22 infected animals. Variola infection elicited striking and temporally coordinated patterns of gene expression in peripheral blood. Of particular interest were features that appear to represent an IFN response, cell proliferation, immunoglobulin gene expression, viral dose-dependent gene expression patterns, and viral modulation of the host immune response. The virtual absence of a tumor necrosis factor /NF-B-activated transcriptional program in the face of an overwhelming systemic infection suggests that variola gene products may ablate this response. These results provide a detailed picture of the host transcriptional response during smallpox infection, and may help guide the development of diagnostic, therapeutic, and prophylactic strategies. Groups of assays that are related as part of a time series. Keywords: time_series_design
2006-01-11 | GSE4013 | GEO
Project description:We propose and analyze a compartmental nonlinear deterministic mathematical model for the typhoid fever outbreak and optimal control strategies in a community with varying population. The model is studied qualitatively using stability theory of differential equations and the basic reproductive number that represents the epidemic indicator is obtained from the largest eigenvalue of the next-generation matrix. Both local and global asymptotic stability conditions for disease-free and endemic equilibria are determined. The model exhibits a forward transcritical bifurcation and the sensitivity analysis is performed. The optimal control problem is designed by applying Pontryagin maximum principle with three control strategies, namely, the prevention strategy through sanitation, proper hygiene, and vaccination; the treatment strategy through application of appropriate medicine; and the screening of the carriers. The cost functional accounts for the cost involved in prevention, screening, and treatment together with the total number of the infected persons averted. Numerical results for the typhoid outbreak dynamics and its optimal control revealed that a combination of prevention and treatment is the best cost-effective strategy to eradicate the disease.
| S-EPMC5610837 | biostudies-literature