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Spatiotemporal dynamics of habitat suitability for the Ethiopian staple crop, Eragrostis tef (teff), under changing climate

ABSTRACT: Teff (Eragrostis tef (Zucc.) Trotter) is a staple, ancient food crop in Ethiopia. Its growth is affected by climate change, so it is essential to understand climatic effects on its habitat suitability in order to design countermeasures to ensure food security. Based on the four Representative Concentration Pathway emission scenarios (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we predicted the potential distribution of teff under current and future scenarios using a maximum entropy model (Maxent). Eleven variables were selected out of 19, according to correlation analysis combined with their contribution rates to the distribution. Simulated accuracy results validated by the area under the curve (AUC) had strong predictability with values of 0.83–0.85 for current and RCP scenarios. Our results demonstrated that mean temperature in the coldest season, precipitation seasonality, precipitation in the cold season and slope are the dominant factors driving potential teff distribution. Proportions of suitable teff area, relative to the total study area were 58% in current climate condition, 58.8% in RCP2.6, 57.6% in RCP4.5, 59.2% in RCP6.0, and 57.4% in RCP8.5, respectively. We found that warmer conditions are correlated with decreased land suitability. As expected, bioclimatic variables related to temperature and precipitation were the best predictors for teff suitability. Additionally, there were geographic shifts in land suitability, which need to be accounted for when assessing overall susceptibility to climate change. The ability to adapt to climate change will be critical for Ethiopia’s agricultural strategy and food security. A robust climate model is necessary for developing primary adaptive strategies and policy to minimize the harmful impact of climate change on teff.

SUBMITTER: Zewudie D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7996070 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Teff [Eragrostis tef (Zuccagni) Trotter] is a small-sized cereal grain and an indigenous crop in Ethiopia. The Amhara region is one of the major teff producers regions in the country. However, information on the phenolic content of the region's teff varieties is limited. Seventy-two teff samples were collected from three administrative zones (West Gojjam zone, Awi zone, and East Gojjam zone) of the Amhara region of Ethiopia. The samples' total polyphenol and flavonoid contents were determined using colorimetric methods. The total flavonoid contents expressed as catechin equivalent, CE (i.e., under alkaline conditions) and quercetin equivalent, Q.E (i.e., under the methanolic solution of AlCl3) were found to be in the range of 7.66 ± 0.60-57.36 ± 3.87 mg C.E and 15.45 ± 0.15-113.12 ± 3.09 mg Q.E per 100 g of teff samples, respectively. The corresponding total polyphenol content (TPC), described as gallic acid equivalent (G.A.E.), was in the range of 46.21 ± 1.20-133.32 ± 5.44 mg G.A.E. The results showed that the mean TPC value of the teff samples from the West Gojjam zone was enriched with polyphenol than samples from the Awi zone and East Gojjam. Furthermore, it was noted that the mean TPC and TFC values did not vary significantly between samples of the East Gojjam and Awi zone (p > 0.05). In contrast, a significant difference in mean TPC and TFC-Q.E were noted between the sampling zone of East Gojjam and West Gojjam and between West Gojjam and Awi zones (p < 0.05). These significant variations in TPC and TFC might be due to observable variations in the agroecological zones and the genetic-make-up of the samples. Person correlation indicated a significant positive correlation matrix between the three variables (p = 0.01). The teff samples were trying to be classified based on their geographical origin using hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) and biplots. Accordingly, the variance explained by component 1 (PC1) is 67.2%, and the variance explained by component 2 (PC2) is 20.0%.

Project description:Silicon (Si) is one of the beneficial plant mineral nutrients which is known to improve biotic and abiotic stress resilience and productivity in several crops. However, its beneficial role in underutilized or "orphan" crop such as tef [Eragrostis tef (Zucc.) Trotter] has never been studied before. In this study, we investigated the effect of Si application on tef plant performance. Plants were grown in soil with or without exogenous application of Na2SiO3 (0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, and 5.0 mM), and biomass and grain yield, mineral content, chlorophyll content, plant height, and expression patterns of putative Si transporter genes were studied. Silicon application significantly increased grain yield (100%) at 3.0 mM Si, and aboveground biomass yield by 45% at 5.0 mM Si, while it had no effect on plant height. The observed increase in grain yield appears to be due to enhanced stress resilience and increased total chlorophyll content. Increasing the level of Si increased shoot Si and Na content while it significantly decreased the content of other minerals including K, Ca, Mg, P, S, Fe, and Mn in the shoot, which is likely due to the use of Na containing Si amendment. A slight decrease in grain Ca, P, S, and Mn was also observed with increasing Si treatment. The increase in Si content with increasing Si levels prompted us to analyze the expression of Si transporter genes. The tef genome contains seven putative Si transporters which showed high homology with influx and efflux Lsi transporters reported in various plant species including rice. The tef Lsi homologs were deferentially expressed between tissues (roots, leaves, nodes, and inflorescences) and in response to Si, suggesting that they may play a role in Si uptake and/or translocation. Taken together, these results show that Si application improves stress resilience and yield and regulates the expression of putative Si transporter genes. However, further study is needed to determine the physiological function of the putative Si transporters, and to study the effect of field application of Si on tef productivity.

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