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Implicit ligand theory for relative binding free energies: II. An estimator based on control variates.

ABSTRACT: Implicit ligand theory describes the relationship between the noncovalent binding free energy and the binding free energy between a ligand and multiple rigid receptor conformations. We have previously shown that if the receptor conformations are sampled from or reweighed to a holo ensemble, the binding free energy relative to the ligand that defines the ensemble can be calculated. Here, we apply a variance reduction technique known as control variates to derive a new statistical estimator for the relative binding free energy. In applications to a data set of 6 reference ligands and 18 test ligands, statistically significant differences between the estimators are not observed for most systems. However, in cases where such differences are observed, the new estimator is more accurate, precise, and converges more quickly. Performance improvements are most consistent where there is a clear correlation, with a correlation coefficient greater than 0.3, between the control variate and the statistic being averaged.

SUBMITTER: Nguyen TH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8018686 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Implicit ligand theory for relative binding free energies: II. An estimator based on control variates.

Nguyen Trung Hai TH Minh David D L DDL

Journal of physics communications 20201126 11

Implicit ligand theory describes the relationship between the noncovalent binding free energy and the binding free energy between a ligand and multiple rigid receptor conformations. We have previously shown that if the receptor conformations are sampled from or reweighed to a holo ensemble, the binding free energy relative to the ligand that defines the ensemble can be calculated. Here, we apply a variance reduction technique known as control variates to derive a new statistical estimator for th ...[more]

PMID: 33817346

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Project description:Accurate yet efficient computational models of solvent environment are central for most calculations that rely on atomistic modeling, such as prediction of protein-ligand binding affinities. In this study, we evaluate the accuracy of a recently developed generalized Born implicit solvent model, GBNSR6 (Aguilar et al. J. Chem. Theory Comput. 2010, 6, 3613-3639), in estimating the electrostatic solvation free energies (ΔG(pol)) and binding free energies (ΔΔG(pol)) for small protein-ligand complexes. We also compare estimates based on three different explicit solvent models (TIP3P, TIP4PEw, and OPC). The two main findings are as follows. First, the deviation (RMSD = 7.04 kcal/mol) of GBNSR6 binding affinities from commonly used TIP3P reference values is comparable to the deviations between explicit models themselves, e.g. TIP4PEw vs TIP3P (RMSD = 5.30 kcal/mol). A simple uniform adjustment of the atomic radii by a single scaling factor reduces the RMS deviation of GBNSR6 from TIP3P to within the above "error margin" - differences between ΔΔG(pol) estimated by different common explicit solvent models. The simple radii scaling virtually eliminates the systematic deviation (ΔΔG(pol)) between GBNSR6 and two out of the three explicit water models and significantly reduces the deviation from the third explicit model. Second, the differences between electrostatic binding energy estimates from different explicit models is disturbingly large; for example, the deviation between TIP4PEw and TIP3P estimates of ΔΔG(pol) values can be up to ∼50% or ∼9 kcal/mol, which is significantly larger than the "chemical accuracy" goal of ∼1 kcal/mol. The absolute ΔG(pol) calculated with different explicit models could differ by tens of kcal/mol. These discrepancies point to unacceptably high sensitivity of binding affinity estimates to the choice of common explicit water models. The absence of a clear "gold standard" among these models strengthens the case for the use of accurate implicit solvation models for binding energetics, which may be orders of magnitude faster.

Dataset Information

Implicit ligand theory for relative binding free energies: II. An estimator based on control variates.

Publications

Implicit ligand theory for relative binding free energies: II. An estimator based on control variates.

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