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Covid-19 Automated Diagnosis and Risk Assessment through Metabolomics and Machine Learning.

ABSTRACT: COVID-19 is still placing a heavy health and financial burden worldwide. Impairment in patient screening and risk management plays a fundamental role on how governments and authorities are directing resources, planning reopening, as well as sanitary countermeasures, especially in regions where poverty is a major component in the equation. An efficient diagnostic method must be highly accurate, while having a cost-effective profile. We combined a machine learning-based algorithm with mass spectrometry to create an expeditious platform that discriminate COVID-19 in plasma samples within minutes, while also providing tools for risk assessment, to assist healthcare professionals in patient management and decision-making. A cross-sectional study enrolled 815 patients (442 COVID-19, 350 controls and 23 COVID-19 suspicious) from three Brazilian epicenters from April to July 2020. We were able to elect and identify 19 molecules related to the disease's pathophysiology and several discriminating features to patient's health-related outcomes. The method applied for COVID-19 diagnosis showed specificity >96% and sensitivity >83%, and specificity >80% and sensitivity >85% during risk assessment, both from blinded data. Our method introduced a new approach for COVID-19 screening, providing the indirect detection of infection through metabolites and contextualizing the findings with the disease's pathophysiology. The pairwise analysis of biomarkers brought robustness to the model developed using machine learning algorithms, transforming this screening approach in a tool with great potential for real-world application.

SUBMITTER: Delafiori J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8023531 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Since its emergence in late 2019, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused a pandemic with more than 55 million reported cases and 1.3 million estimated deaths worldwide. While epidemiological and clinical characteristics of COVID-19 have been reported, risk factors underlying the transition from mild to severe disease among patients remain poorly understood. In this retrospective study, we analysed data of 879 confirmed SARS-CoV-2 positive patients admitted to a two-site NHS Trust hospital in London, England, between January 1st and May 26th, 2020, with a majority of cases occurring in March and April. We extracted anonymised demographic data, physiological clinical variables and laboratory results from electronic healthcare records (EHR) and applied multivariate logistic regression, random forest and extreme gradient boosted trees. To evaluate the potential for early risk assessment, we used data available during patients' initial presentation at the emergency department (ED) to predict deterioration to one of three clinical endpoints in the remainder of the hospital stay: admission to intensive care, need for invasive mechanical ventilation and in-hospital mortality. Based on the trained models, we extracted the most informative clinical features in determining these patient trajectories. Considering our inclusion criteria, we have identified 129 of 879 (15%) patients that required intensive care, 62 of 878 (7%) patients needing mechanical ventilation, and 193 of 619 (31%) cases of in-hospital mortality. Our models learned successfully from early clinical data and predicted clinical endpoints with high accuracy, the best model achieving area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC-ROC) scores of 0.76 to 0.87 (F1 scores of 0.42-0.60). Younger patient age was associated with an increased risk of receiving intensive care and ventilation, but lower risk of mortality. Clinical indicators of a patient's oxygen supply and selected laboratory results, such as blood lactate and creatinine levels, were most predictive of COVID-19 patient trajectories. Among COVID-19 patients machine learning can aid in the early identification of those with a poor prognosis, using EHR data collected during a patient's first presentation at ED. Patient age and measures of oxygenation status during ED stay are primary indicators of poor patient outcomes.

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Covid-19 Automated Diagnosis and Risk Assessment through Metabolomics and Machine Learning.

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