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Multilevel analysis of social, climatic and entomological factors that influenced dengue occurrence in three municipalities in Colombia.

ABSTRACT: According to the World Health Organization, dengue is a neglected tropical disease. Latin America, specifically Colombia is in alert regarding this arbovirosis as there was a spike in the number of reported dengue cases at the beginning of 2019. Although there has been a worldwide decrease in the number of reported dengue cases, Colombia has shown a growing trend over the past few years. This study performed a Poisson multilevel analysis with mixed effects on STATA® version 16 and R to assess sociodemographic, climatic, and entomological factors that may influence the occurrence of dengue in three municipalities for the period 2010-2015. Information on dengue cases and their sociodemographic variables was collected from the National Public Health Surveillance System (SIVIGILA) records. For climatic variables (temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation), we used the information registered by the weather stations located in the study area, which are managed by the Instituto de Hidrologia, Meteorologia y Estudios Ambientales (IDEAM) or the Corporación Autónoma Regional (CAR). The entomological variables (house index, container index, and Breteau index) were provided by the Health office of the Cundinamarca department. SIVIGILA reported 1921 dengue cases and 56 severe dengue cases in the three municipalities; of them, three died. One out of four cases occurred in rural areas. The age category most affected was adulthood, and there were no statistical differences in the number of cases between sexes. The Poisson multilevel analysis with the best fit model explained the presentation of cases were temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, childhood, live in urban area and the contributory healthcare system. The temperature had the biggest influence on the presentation of dengue cases in this region between 2010 and 2015.

SUBMITTER: Ordonez-Sierra G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8025047 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundAs many neglected tropical diseases are co-endemic and have common risk factors, integrated control can efficiently reduce disease burden and relieve resource-strained public health budgets. Diarrheal diseases and dengue fever are major global health problems sharing common risk factors in water storage containers. Where provision of clean water is inadequate, water storage is crucial. Fecal contamination of stored water is a common source of diarrheal illness, but stored water also provides breeding sites for dengue vector mosquitoes. Integrating improved water management and educational strategies for both diseases in the school environment can potentially improve the health situation for students and the larger community. The objective of this trial was to investigate whether interventions targeting diarrhea and dengue risk factors would significantly reduce absence due to diarrheal disease and dengue entomological risk factors in schools.Methodology/principal findingsA factorial cluster randomized controlled trial was carried out in 34 rural primary schools (1,301 pupils) in La Mesa and Anapoima municipalities, Cundinamarca, Colombia. Schools were randomized to one of four study arms: diarrhea interventions (DIA), dengue interventions (DEN), combined diarrhea and dengue interventions (DIADEN), and control (CON). Interventions had no apparent effect on pupil school absence due to diarrheal disease (p = 0.45) or on adult female Aedes aegypti density (p = 0.32) (primary outcomes). However, the dengue interventions reduced the Breteau Index on average by 78% (p = 0.029), with Breteau indices of 10.8 and 6.2 in the DEN and DIADEN arms, respectively compared to 37.5 and 46.9 in the DIA and CON arms, respectively. The diarrhea interventions improved water quality as assessed by the amount of Escherichia coli colony forming units (CFU); the ratio of Williams mean E. coli CFU being 0.22, or 78% reduction (p = 0.008).Conclusions/significanceIntegrated control of dengue and diarrhea has never been conducted before. This trial presents an example for application of control strategies that may affect both diseases and the first study to apply such an approach in school settings. The interventions were well received and highly appreciated by students and teachers. An apparent absence of effect in primary outcome indicators could be the result of pupils being exposed to risk factors outside the school area and mosquitoes flying in from nearby uncontrolled breeding sites. Integrated interventions targeting these diseases in a school context remain promising because of the reduced mosquito breeding and improved water quality, as well as educational benefits. However, to improve outcomes in future integrated approaches, simultaneous interventions in communities, in addition to schools, should be considered; using appropriate combinations of site-specific, effective, acceptable, and affordable interventions.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov no. ISRCTN40195031.

Project description:BackgroundThe prevalence of teenage pregnancy in Colombia is higher than the worldwide average. The identification of socio-geographical disparities might help to prioritize public health interventions.AimTo describe variation in the probability of teenage maternity across geopolitical departments and socio-geographical intersectional strata in Colombia.MethodsA cross-sectional study based on live birth certificates in Colombia. Teenage maternity was defined as a woman giving birth aged 19 or younger. Multilevel analysis of individual heterogeneity and discriminatory accuracy (MAIHDA) was applied using multilevel Poisson and logistic regression. Two different approaches were used: (1) intersectional: using strata defined by the combination of health insurance, region, area of residency, and ethnicity as the second level (2) geographical: using geopolitical departments as the second level. Null, partial, and full models were obtained. General contextual effect (GCE) based on the variance partition coefficient (VPC) was considered as the measure of disparity. Proportional change in variance (PCV) was used to identify the contribution of each variable to the between-strata variation and to identify whether this variation, if any, was due to additive or interaction effects. Residuals were used to identify strata with potential higher-order interactions.ResultsThe prevalence of teenage mothers in Colombia was 18.30% (95% CI 18.20-18.40). The highest prevalence was observed in Vichada, 25.65% (95% CI: 23.71-27.78), and in the stratum containing mothers with Subsidized/Unaffiliated healthcare insurance, Mestizo, Rural area in the Caribbean region, 29.08% (95% CI 28.55-29.61). The VPC from the null model was 1.70% and 9.16% using the geographical and socio-geographical intersectional approaches, respectively. The higher PCV for the intersectional model was attributed to health insurance. Positive and negative interactions of effects were observed.ConclusionDisparities were observed between intersectional socio-geographical strata but not between geo-political departments. Our results indicate that if resources for prevention are limited, using an intersectional socio-geographical approach would be more effective than focusing on geopolitical departments especially when focusing resources on those groups which show the highest prevalence. MAIHDA could potentially be applied to many other health outcomes where resource decisions must be made.

Project description:BACKGROUND: Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, is now the fastest spreading tropical disease globally. Previous studies indicate that climate and human behavior interact to influence dengue virus and vector (Aedes aegypti) population dynamics; however, the relative effects of these variables depends on local ecology and social context. We investigated the roles of climate and socio-ecological factors on Ae. aegypti population dynamics in Machala, a city in southern coastal Ecuador where dengue is hyper-endemic. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We studied two proximate urban localities where we monitored weekly Ae. aegypti oviposition activity (Nov. 2010-June 2011), conducted seasonal pupal surveys, and surveyed household to identify dengue risk factors. The results of this study provide evidence that Ae. aegypti population dynamics are influenced by social risk factors that vary by season and lagged climate variables that vary by locality. Best-fit models to predict the presence of Ae. aegypti pupae included parameters for household water storage practices, access to piped water, the number of households per property, condition of the house and patio, and knowledge and perceptions of dengue. Rainfall and minimum temperature were significant predictors of oviposition activity, although the effect of rainfall varied by locality due to differences in types of water storage containers. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate the potential to reduce the burden of dengue in this region by conducting focused vector control interventions that target high-risk households and containers in each season and by developing predictive models using climate and non-climate information. These findings provide the region's public health sector with key information for conducting time and location-specific vector control campaigns, and highlight the importance of local socio-ecological studies to understand dengue dynamics. See Text S1 for an executive summary in Spanish.

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Multilevel analysis of social, climatic and entomological factors that influenced dengue occurrence in three municipalities in Colombia.

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