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Seasonal risk of low pathogenic avian influenza virus introductions into free-range layer farms in the Netherlands.

ABSTRACT: Poultry can become infected with avian influenza viruses (AIV) via (in) direct contact with infected wild birds. Free-range chicken farms in the Netherlands were shown to have a higher risk for introduction of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) virus than indoor chicken farms. Therefore, during outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), free-range layers are confined indoors as a risk mitigation measure. In this study, we characterized the seasonal patterns of AIV introductions into free-range layer farms, to determine the high-risk period. Data from the LPAI serological surveillance programme for the period 2013-2016 were used to first estimate the time of virus introduction into affected farms and then assess seasonal patterns in the risk of introduction. Time of introduction was estimated by fitting a mathematical model to seroprevalence data collected longitudinally from infected farms. For the period 2015-2016, longitudinal follow-up included monthly collections of eggs for serological testing from a cohort of 261 farms. Information on the time of introduction was then used to estimate the monthly incidence and seasonality by fitting harmonic and Poisson regression models. A significant yearly seasonal risk of introduction that lasted around 4 months (November to February) was identified with the highest risk observed in January. The risk for introduction of LPAI viruses in this period was on average four times significantly higher than the period of low risk around the summer months. Although the data for HPAI infections were limited in the period 2014-2018, a similar risk period for introduction of HPAI viruses was observed. The results of this study can be used to optimize risk-based surveillance and inform decisions on timing and duration of indoor confinement when HPAI viruses are known to circulate in the wild bird population.

SUBMITTER: Gonzales JL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8048991 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of subtype H5Nx caused outbreaks in poultry, captive birds, and wild birds in the Netherlands between October 2020 and June 2021. The full genome sequences of 143 viruses were analyzed. HPAI viruses were mainly of subtype H5N8, followed by H5N1, but also viruses of subtypes H5N3, H5N4, and H5N5 were detected. At least seven distinct genotypes were found, carrying closely related H5 segments belonging to clade 2.3.4.4b. Molecular clock analysis suggests that the reassortments of the NA gene segments likely occurred before the introduction of these viruses into the Netherlands. Genetic analysis suggested that multiple independent introductions of HPAI H5N8 viruses occurred in the Netherlands, likely followed by local spread resulting in at least two clusters of related viruses. The analysis provided evidence for independent introductions from wild birds at 10 poultry farms, whereas for two outbreaks transmission between farms could not be excluded. HPAI H5Nx viruses were detected in dead wild birds of 33 species, but mostly infected geese and swans were found. The pathogenicity of the H5N8 virus was determined for chickens and Pekin ducks, showing reduced mortality for ducks. This study provides more insight into the genetic diversity of HPAI H5Nx viruses generated by reassortment and evolution, and the spread of these viruses between wild birds and poultry. The fast and continuing evolution of H5 clade 2.3.4.4b may provide opportunities for these viruses to adapt to specific bird species, or possibly mammalian species and humans. IMPORTANCE Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses are spread by migratory wild birds. Viruses causing outbreaks in wild birds and poultry in the Netherlands in 2020-2021 were genetically analyzed, which suggested that multiple virus incursions occurred. The outbreaks in poultry were likely caused by independent introductions from wild birds; only in one case virus spread between farms could not be excluded. Viruses of subtype H5N8 were mainly observed, but also other subtypes were detected that likely evolved by exchange of genetic information before these viruses were introduced into the Netherlands. Viruses were detected in many species of dead wild birds, but mostly in geese and swans. We showed that the H5N8 virus causes a higher mortality in chickens compared to ducks. This is consistent with the fact that not many wild ducks were found dead. This study provides more insight in the evolution and spread of HPAI viruses in wild birds and poultry.

Project description:This study investigated the pathways of exposure to low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) virus among Australian commercial chicken farms and estimated the likelihood of this exposure occurring using scenario trees and a stochastic modeling approach following the World Organization for Animal Health methodology for risk assessment. Input values for the models were sourced from scientific literature and an on-farm survey conducted during 2015 and 2016 among Australian commercial chicken farms located in New South Wales and Queensland. Outputs from the models revealed that the probability of a first LPAI virus exposure to a chicken in an Australian commercial chicken farms from one wild bird at any point in time is extremely low. A comparative assessment revealed that across the five farm types (non-free-range meat chicken, free-range meat chicken, cage layer, barn layer, and free range layer farms), free-range layer farms had the highest probability of exposure (7.5?×?10-4; 5% and 95%, 5.7?×?10-4-0.001). The results indicate that the presence of a large number of wild birds on farm is required for exposure to occur across all farm types. The median probability of direct exposure was highest in free-range farm types (5.6?×?10-4 and 1.6?×?10-4 for free-range layer and free-range meat chicken farms, respectively) and indirect exposure was highest in non-free-range farm types (2.7?×?10-4, 2.0?×?10-4, and 1.9?×?10-4 for non-free-range meat chicken, cage layer, and barn layer farms, respectively). The probability of exposure was found to be lowest in summer for all farm types. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the proportion of waterfowl among wild birds on the farm, the presence of waterfowl in the range and feed storage areas, and the prevalence of LPAI in wild birds are the most influential parameters for the probability of Australian commercial chicken farms being exposed to avian influenza (AI) virus. These results highlight the importance of ensuring good biosecurity on farms to minimize the risk of exposure to AI virus and the importance of continuous surveillance of LPAI prevalence including subtypes in wild bird populations.

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Seasonal risk of low pathogenic avian influenza virus introductions into free-range layer farms in the Netherlands.

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