Dataset Information

Predicted impacts of government policies and actions on the SARS-CoV-2 disease in the northwestern Himalayan region, India.

ABSTRACT:

Aim

The outbreak of the new coronavirus pandemic (SARS-CoV-2) was initiated in December 2019, and within a couple of months it became a global health emergency. Given the importance to assess the evolution and transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 and to forecast the next scenario of the pandemic, mainly in countries with limited healthcare systems, we estimated the reproductive number (R0) of SARS-CoV-2 in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), India, and a possible scenario for this pandemic in the region.

Subject and methods

We estimated the reproductive number (R0) of SARS-CoV-2 in its first outbreak stage in the northwestern region of Himalaya, India, and we also predicted new daily cases for the next 90 days using different R0, testing a plausible end of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak.

Results

Our results showed a considerable increase in the number of cases, but with a tendency to asymptote. Anantnag, Bandipora, Baramulla, Shopian, and Srinagar districts showed more than 100 cases and Kulgam and Kathua districts showed strong growth of the number of cases from the beginning of May, without a tendency to normalization. The estimated R0 for the J&K region was 1.041; but by decreasing the RO by 10, 25, and 50%, we observed a great decrease in the daily number of new cases, especially by decreasing by 50%.

Conclusion

In this study, we indicate positive effects of the preventive measures, such as lockdown and social distancing, taken in the J&K region, showing a stabilization of the growth curves of new cases of SARS-CoV-2, which tends to a strong decrease over time as the R0 decreases.

SUBMITTER: Haq SM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8049861 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:The Eastern Himalayan region of Northeast (NE) India is home to a large number of indigenous rice varieties, which may serve as a valuable genetic resource for future crop improvement to meet the ever-increasing demand for food production. However, these varieties are rapidly being lost due to changes in land-use and agricultural practices, which favor agronomically improved varieties. A detailed understanding of the genetic structure and diversity of indigenous rice varieties is crucial for efficient utilization of rice genetic resources and for developing suitable conservation strategies. To explore the genetic structure and diversity of rice varieties in NE India, we genotyped 300 individuals of 24 indigenous rice varieties representing sali, boro, jum and glutinous types, 5 agronomically improved varieties, and one wild rice species (O. rufipogon) using seven SSR markers. A total of 85 alleles and a very high level of gene diversity (0.776) were detected among the indigenous rice varieties of the region. Considerable level of genetic variation was found within indigenous varieties whereas improved varieties were monoporphic across all loci. The comparison of genetic diversity among different types of rice revealed that sali type possessed the highest gene diversity (0.747) followed by jum (0.627), glutinous (0.602) and boro (0.596) types of indigenous rice varieties, while the lowest diversity was detected in agronomically improved varieties (0.459). The AMOVA results showed that 66% of the variation was distributed among varieties indicating a very high level of genetic differentiation in rice varieties in the region. Two major genetically defined clusters corresponding to indica and japonica groups were detected in rice varieties of the region. Overall, traditionally cultivated indigenous rice varieties in NE India showed high levels of genetic diversity comparable to levels of genetic diversity reported from wild rice populations in various parts of the world. The efforts for conservation of rice germplasm in NE India should consider saving rice varieties representing different types with specific emphasis given to sali and jum types. The protection against the loss of vast genetic diversity found in indigenous rice varieties in NE India is crucial for maintaining future food security in the changing world.