The Impact of Liver Transplantation on Hepatocellular Carcinoma Mortality in the United States.
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ABSTRACT: Background
Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) carries a poor prognosis. Liver transplantation (LT) is potentially curative for localized HCC. We evaluated the impact of LT on U.S. general population HCC-specific mortality rates.Methods
The Transplant Cancer Match Study links the U.S. transplant registry with 17 cancer registries. We calculated age-standardized incidence (1987-2017) and incidence-based mortality (IBM) rates (1991-2017) for adult HCCs. We partitioned population-level IBM rates by cancer stage and calculated counterfactual IBM rates assuming transplanted cases had not received a transplant.Results
Among 129,487 HCC cases, 45.9% had localized cancer. HCC incidence increased on average 4.0% annually [95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.6-4.5]. IBM also increased for HCC overall (2.9% annually; 95% CI = 1.7-4.2) and specifically for localized stage HCC (4.8% annually; 95% CI = 4.0-5.5). The proportion of HCC-related transplants jumped sharply from 6.7% (2001) to 18.0% (2002), and further increased to 40.0% (2017). HCC-specific mortality declined among both nontransplanted and transplanted cases over time. In the absence of transplants, IBM for localized HCC would have increased at 5.3% instead of 4.8% annually.Conclusions
LT has provided survival benefit to patients with localized HCC. However, diagnosis of many cases at advanced stages, limited availability of donor livers, and improved mortality for patients without transplants have limited the impact of transplantation on general population HCC-specific mortality rates.Impact
Although LT rates continue to rise, better screening and treatment modalities are needed to halt the rising HCC mortality rates in the United States.See related commentary by Zhang and Thrift, p. 435.
SUBMITTER: Mahale P
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8052263 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Background & aimsManagement strategies for patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have changed, along with liver allocation policies based on model for end-stage liver disease score. We investigated etiologic-specific trends in liver transplantation in the United States during different time periods.MethodsWe performed a retrospective study, using the United Network for Organ Sharing/Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network registry data, to identify all adult patients registered for liver transplantation in the United States from January 1, 2004, through December 31, 2015. For subjects listed with multiple diagnoses, HCC was considered the primary listing diagnosis. To determine whether availability of direct-acting antiviral agents, which began in 2011, affected pretransplant (death or drop-out) and post-transplant outcomes for patients with HCV infection, we compared data from the time periods of 2004 to 2010 and 2011 to 2014. We used competing-risk analysis to compare differences in end points between these periods. Differences between periods in pretransplantation and post-transplantation outcomes were estimated using Kaplan-Maier analysis and compared using the log-rank test. Associations between year of listing and pre-liver transplant outcome, and year of liver transplant and survival after transplant, were examined using the log-rank test. Proportional hazard regression was used to evaluate the reliability of the time period effect with potential confounders.ResultsAmong 109,018 registrants, 18.5% were registered for liver transplantation because of HCC. In 2015, HCC was the leading diagnosis among registrants (23.9% of registrations) and recipients (27.2% of recipients). Between 2004 and 2015, the ratio of registrants with vs without HCC increased 5.6-fold for patients with HCV infection, 1.9-fold for patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, 2.7-fold for patients with alcohol abuse, and 10.2-fold for patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis. After adjusting for covariates, we associated the period of 2011 to 2014 with a decreased probability that HCC registrants would undergo liver transplantation (hazard ratio [HR], 0.62; P < .0001). The period of 2011 to 2014 also was associated with a decreased probability of drop-out owing to deterioration or death from HCV-induced (HR, 0.90; P = .0003), HBV-induced (HR, 0.71; P = .002), or alcohol-induced (HR, 0.90; P = .01) liver disease, and an increased probability of delisting as a result of clinical improvement in patients with HCV infection (HR, 3.4; P < .0001), HBV infection (HR, 2.3; P = .004), or alcohol abuse (HR, 2.2; P < .0001). The period of 2011 to 2014 was associated with a decreased risk of graft loss or death, with the largest effect seen in HCV-infected recipients (HR, 0.76; P < .0001).ConclusionsHCC was the leading indication for liver transplantation in the United States in 2015. Despite this, the probability of liver transplantation decreased the most in registrants with HCC. Pretransplantation and post-transplantation outcomes have improved, particularly in patients with HCV infection.
| S-EPMC5401787 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMuch of our understanding regarding geographic issues in transplantation is based on statistical techniques that do not formally account for geography and is based on obsolete boundaries such as donation service area.MethodsWe applied spatial epidemiological techniques to analyze liver-related mortality and access to liver transplant services at the county level using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients from 2010 to 2018.ResultsThere was a significant negative spatial correlation between transplant rates and liver-related mortality at the county level (Moran's I, -0.319; P = 0.001). Significant clusters were identified with high transplant rates and low liver-related mortality. Counties in geographic clusters with high ratios of liver transplants to liver-related deaths had more liver transplant centers within 150 nautical miles (6.7 versus 3.6 centers; P < 0.001) compared with all other counties, as did counties in geographic clusters with high ratios of waitlist additions to liver-related deaths (8.5 versus 2.5 centers; P < 0.001). The spatial correlation between waitlist mortality and overall liver-related mortality was positive (Moran's I, 0.060; P = 0.001) but weaker. Several areas with high waitlist mortality had some of the lowest overall liver-related mortality in the country.ConclusionsThese data suggest that high waitlist mortality and allocation model for end-stage liver disease do not necessarily correlate with decreased access to transplant, whereas local transplant center density is associated with better access to waitlisting and transplant.
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Project description:BACKGROUND: Orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) is the best available option for early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), although its application is limited by stringent selection criteria, costs, and deceased donor graft shortage, particularly in Asia, where living donor liver transplant (LDLT) has been developed. METHODS: This article reviews the present standards for patient selection represented by size-and-number criteria with particular references to Milan Criteria and novel prediction models based on results achieved in patients exceeding those limits, with consideration of the expanded indication represented by the UCSF Criteria. RESULTS: The expected outcomes after deceased donor liver transplant (DDLT) or LDLT are favorable if predetermined selection criteria are applied. However, selection bias, difference in waiting time, and ischemia-regeneration injuries of the graft among DDLT vs LDLT may influence long-term results. In the article, the differences between East and West in first-line treatments for HCC (resection vs transplantation), indications, and ethics for the donor, are summarized as well as possible novel predictors of tumor biology (especially DNA mutation and fractional allelic loss, FAI) to be considered for better outcome prediction. CONCLUSIONS: Liver transplantation remains the most promising product of modern surgery and represents a cornerstone in the management of patients with HCC.
| S-EPMC2266786 | biostudies-other
Project description:Background/aimsThis study aimed to investigate whether everolimus (EVR) affects long-term survival after liver transplantation (LT) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).MethodsThe data from 303 consecutive patients with HCC who had undergone LT from January 2012 to July 2018 were retrospectively reviewed. The patients were divided into two groups: 1) patients treated with EVR in combination with calcineurin inhibitors (CNIs) (EVR group; n=114) and 2) patients treated with CNI-based therapy without EVR (non-EVR group; n=189). Time to recurrence (TTR) and overall survival (OS) after propensity score (PS) matching were compared between the groups, and prognostic factors for TTR and OS were evaluated.ResultsThe EVR group exhibited more aggressive tumor biology than the non-EVR group, such as a higher number of tumors (P=0.003), a higher prevalence of microscopic vascular invasion (P=0.017) and exceeding Milan criteria (P=0.029). Compared with the PS-matched non-EVR group, the PS-matched EVR group had significantly better TTR (P<0.001) and OS (P<0.001). In multivariable analysis, EVR was identified as an independent prognostic factor for TTR (hazard ratio [HR], 0.248; P=0.001) and OS (HR, 0.145; P<0.001).ConclusionCombined with CNIs, EVR has the potential to prolong long-term survival in patients undergoing LT for HCC. These findings warrant further investigation in a well-designed prospective study.
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Project description:BACKGROUND:In the United States, 1 in 10 infants and 1 in 20 older children die on the liver transplant waiting list. Increasing split liver transplantation could increase organ availability for these children, without decreasing transplants in adults. METHODS:Using United Network for Organ Sharing Standard Transplant Analysis and Research data, we identified livers transplanted 2010 to 2015 that could potentially have been used for split transplant, based on strict criteria. Livers not suitable for pediatric patients or allocated to high-risk recipients were excluded. Number and distribution of potentially "split-able" livers were compared to pediatric waitlist deaths in each region. RESULTS:Of 37 333 deceased donor livers transplanted, 6.3% met our strict criteria for utilization in split liver transplant. Only 3.8% of these were actually utilized for split liver transplantation. 96% were used for a single adult recipient. Of the 2253 transplanted as whole livers, 82% of their recipients were listed as willing to accept a segmental liver, and only 3% were listed as requiring a cold ischemia time less than 6 hours. Over the same 5 years, 299 children died on the waitlist. In every United Network for Organ Sharing region, there were more potentially "split-able" livers than pediatric waitlist deaths. Thirty-seven percent of pediatric waitlist deaths occurred at transplant centers that averaged 1 or less pediatric split liver transplantation annually during the study period. CONCLUSIONS:This comparison, although not conclusive, suggests that we might be missing opportunities to reduce pediatric waitlist mortality without decreasing access for adults-using split liver transplant. Barriers are significant, but further work on strategies to increase split liver transplant is warranted.
| S-EPMC6773658 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIncidental hepatocellular carcinoma (iHCC) is a histological finding after liver transplantation (LT) which relevance has been scarcely studied.Aimsto describe the histopathological features of iHCC and to determine its prognostic impact in terms of tumor recurrence and overall survival.MethodsObservational study including 451 consecutive adult LT patients (2000-2013). Patients aged<18, retransplanted or with early postoperative death were excluded. Median follow-up after LT was 58 months. Multiple Cox's regression was used to assess the prognostic impact of iHCC on tumor recurrence and mortality while controlling for potential confounders.Results141 patients had known HCC before LT (31.3%). Among the remaining 310 patients, the prevalence of iHCC was 8.7% (n = 27). In the explanted liver, 36.2% of patients with known HCC and 25.9% of patients with iHCC trespassed Milan criteria (p = 0.30). Patients with known and iHCC had similar rates of multinodular disease (50.4% vs 55.6%; p = 0.62), macrovascular invasion (6.5% vs 3.7%; p = 0.58), microvascular invasion (12.9% vs 14.8%; p = 0.76) and moderate-poor tumor differentiation (53.9% vs 70.4%; p = 0.09). In the multivariate analysis, iHCC and known HCC had identical recurrence-free survival after controlling for histological features (RR = 1.06, 95%CI 0.36-3.14; p = 0.90). Cumulative 5-year overall survival rates were similar between patients with known and iHCC (65% vs 52.8% respectively; log rank p = 0.44), but significantly inferior as compared with patients without HCC (77.8%) (p = 0.002 and p = 0.007 respectively). Indeed, in the overall cohort, iHCC was an independent predictor of mortality (RR = 3.02; 95%CI 1.62-5.65; p = 0.001).ConclusionThe risk of tumor recurrence after LT is similar in patients with iHCC and known HCC. A close imaging surveillance is strongly recommended for patients awaiting LT in order to detect HCC prior to LT, thus allowing for an adequate selection of candidates, prioritization and indication of bridging therapies.
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Project description:Background and aimsPrognosis after liver transplantation differs between hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) arising in cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic livers and aetiology is poorly understood. The aim was to investigate differences in mortality after liver transplantation between these patients.MethodsWe included patients from the European Liver Transplant Registry transplanted due to HCC from 1990 to November 2016 and compared cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic patients using propensity score (PS) calibration of Cox regression estimates to adjust for unmeasured confounding.ResultsWe included 22,787 patients, of whom 96.5% had cirrhosis. In the unadjusted analysis, non-cirrhotic patients had an increased risk of overall mortality with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.37 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.23-1.52). However, the HR approached unity with increasing adjustment and was 1.11 (95% CI 0.99-1.25) when adjusted for unmeasured confounding. Unadjusted, non-cirrhotic patients had an increased risk of HCC-specific mortality (HR 2.62, 95% CI 2.21-3.12). After adjustment for unmeasured confounding, the risk remained significantly increased (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.31-2.00).ConclusionsUsing PS calibration, we showed that HCC in non-cirrhotic liver has similar overall mortality, but higher HCC-specific mortality. This may be a result of a more aggressive cancer form in the non-cirrhotic liver as higher mortality could not be explained by tumour characteristics or other prognostic variables.
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Project description:The influence of thrombosis on the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver transplantation (LT) and the role of the commonest inherited thrombophilia abnormalities factor V Leiden and prothrombin G20210A in the development of thrombosis are unknown. We investigated a cohort of patients who underwent LT for HCC with the aim to estimate the incidence rate (IR) of thrombosis, its influence on mortality and re-transplantation rates and, in the frame of a nested case-control study, the role of thrombophilia in donors and recipients for the development of thrombosis. Four-hundred and thirty patients underwent LT and were followed for a median of 7.2 years. Twenty-six recipients (6%) developed thrombosis (IR 1.06 [95%CI: 0.71-1.53] per 100 pts-yr). Mortality rate after LT was 3.95 (95%CI: 3.22-4.79) per 100 pts-yr and was not influenced by thrombosis. Re-transplantation was planned for 33 patients and was more common in patients with thrombosis than in those without (HR 2.50 [95%CI: 0.87-7.17]). The risk of thrombosis was 4 times higher in recipients with thrombophilia than in those without (OR 4.23 [95%CI: 0.99-18.04]) and 6 times higher when the analysis was restricted to venous thrombosis (OR 6.26 [95%CI: 1.19-32.85]). The presence of inherited thrombophilia in the donors did not increase the risk of thrombosis of the recipient. In conclusion, thrombosis is a complication of 6% of patients transplanted for HCC and increases the risk of re-transplantation but not of mortality. The risk of thrombosis, particularly venous, is increased in the presence of thrombophilia abnormalities in the recipients.
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Project description:Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has been the leading indication for liver transplantation (LT) in the United States. Since 2013, interferon-free antiviral therapy has led to sustained virological response in many LT candidates. We compared the wait-list mortality of HCV patients with that of patients with other chronic liver diseases. Data for primary LT candidates were obtained from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network database. Adult wait-list registrants were divided into 3 cohorts: cohort 1 included patients on the waiting list as of January 1, 2004; cohort 2 as of January 1, 2009; and cohort 3 as of January 1, 2014. The primary outcome was wait-list mortality, and the secondary outcome was the rate of change in Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis was performed to evaluate 12-month wait-list mortality. The cohorts included 7627 LT candidates with HCV and 13,748 patients without HCV. Compared with cohort 2, HCV patients in cohort 3 had a 21% lower risk of death (hazard ratio [HR], 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.67-0.93). Among patients with non-HCV liver disease, no difference in mortality was seen between cohorts 2 and 3 (HR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.86-1.09). Among HCV patients, the mean rate of change in MELD decreased from 2.35 per year for cohort 2 to 1.90 per year for cohort 3, compared with 1.90 and 1.66 in cohorts 2 and 3, respectively, among non-HCV patients. In this population-based study, wait-list mortality and progression of disease severity decreased in recent HCV patients for whom direct-acting antiviral agents were available. Liver Transplantation 24 735-743 2018 AASLD.
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Project description:Liver transplantation is the gold standard of care in patients with end-stage liver disease and those with tumors of hepatic origin in the setting of liver dysfunction. From 1988 to 2009, liver transplantation in the United States grew 3.7-fold from 1713 to 6320 transplants annually. The expansion of liver transplantation is chiefly driven by scientific breakthroughs that have extended patient and graft survival well beyond those expected 50 years ago. The success of liver transplantation is now its primary obstacle, as the pool of donor livers fails to keep pace with the growing number of patients added to the national liver transplant waiting list. This review focuses on three major challenges facing liver transplantation in the United States and discusses new areas of investigation that address each issue: (1) the need for an expanded number of useable donor organs, (2) the need for improved therapies to treat recurrent hepatitis C after transplantation and (3) the need for improved detection, risk stratification based upon tumor biology and molecular inhibitors to combat hepatocellular carcinoma.
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