A comparison of methods in estimating population attributable risk for colorectal cancer in the United States.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Kim H
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8058283 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundPopulation-based metastatic recurrence rates for patients diagnosed with nonmetastatic colorectal cancer cannot be estimated directly from population-based cancer registries because recurrence information is not reported. We derived population-based colorectal cancer recurrence rates using disease-specific survival data based on our understanding of the colorectal cancer recurrence-death process.MethodsWe used a statistical continuous-time multistate survival model to derive population-based annual colorectal cancer recurrence rates from 6 months to 10 years after colorectal cancer diagnosis using relative survival data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. The model was based on the assumption that, after 6 months of diagnosis, all colorectal cancer-related deaths occur only in patients who experience a metastatic recurrence first, and that the annual colorectal cancer-specific death rate among patients with recurrence was the same as in those diagnosed with de novo metastatic disease. We allowed recurrence rates to vary by post-diagnosis time, age, stage, and location for two diagnostic time periods.ResultsIn patients diagnosed in 1975-1984, annual recurrence rates 6 months to 5 years after diagnosis ranged from 0.054 to 0.060 in stage II colon cancer, 0.094 to 0.105 in stage II rectal cancer, and 0.146 to 0.177 in stage III colorectal cancer, depending on age. We found a statistically significant decrease in colorectal cancer recurrence among patients diagnosed in 1994-2003 compared with those diagnosed in 1975-1984 for 6 months to 5 years after diagnosis (hazard ratios between 0.43 and 0.70).ConclusionsWe derived population-based annual recurrence rates for up to 10 years after diagnosis using relative survival data.ImpactOur estimates can be used in decision-analytic models to facilitate analyses of colorectal cancer interventions that are more generalizable.
| S-EPMC7747688 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence has been increasing in the United States for several decades; and, as the incidence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection declines and the prevalence of metabolic disorders rises, the proportion of HCC attributable to various risk factors may be changing.Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare linkage were used to calculate population attributable fractions (PAFs) for each risk factor over time. Patients with HCC (n = 10,708) who were diagnosed during the years 2000 through 2011 were compared with a 5% random sample of cancer-free controls (n = 332,107) residing in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results areas. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and PAFs were calculated for HCV, hepatitis B virus (HBV), metabolic disorders, alcohol-related disorders, smoking, and genetic disorders.Overall, the PAF was greatest for metabolic disorders (32%), followed by HCV (20.5%), alcohol (13.4%), smoking (9%), HBV (4.3%), and genetic disorders (1.5%). The PAF for all factors combined was 59.5%. PAFs differed by race/ethnicity and sex. Metabolic disorders had the largest PAF among Hispanics (PAF, 39.3%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 31.9%-46.7%) and whites (PAF, 34.8%; 95% CI, 33.1%-36.5%), whereas HCV had the largest PAF among blacks (PAF, 36.1%; 95% CI, 31.8%-40.4%) and Asians (PAF, 29.7%; 95% CI, 25.9%-33.4%). Between 2000 and 2011, the PAF of metabolic disorders increased from 25.8% (95% CI, 22.8%-28.9%) to 36% (95% CI, 33.6%-38.5%). In contrast, the PAFs of alcohol-related disorders and HCV remained stable.Among US Medicare recipients, metabolic disorders contribute more to the burden of HCC than any other risk factor, and the fraction of HCC caused by metabolic disorders has increased in the last decade. Cancer 2016;122:1757-65. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA..
| S-EPMC5548177 | biostudies-other
Project description:PurposeScreening is a major contributor to colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality reductions in the United States but is underused. We estimated the fraction of CRC deaths attributable to nonuse of screening to demonstrate the potential benefits from targeted interventions.MethodsThe established microsimulation screening analysis colon model was used to estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) in people aged ≥50 years. The model incorporates long-term patterns and effects of screening by age and type of screening test. PAF for 2010 was estimated using currently available data on screening uptake. PAF was also projected assuming constant future screening rates to incorporate lagged effects from past increases in screening uptake. We also computed PAF using Levin's formula to gauge how this simpler approach differs from the model-based approach.ResultsThere were an estimated 51,500 CRC deaths in 2010, about 63% (N ∼ 32,200) of which were attributable to nonscreening. The PAF decreases slightly to 58% in 2020. Levin's approach yielded a considerably more conservative PAF of 46% (N ∼ 23,600) for 2010.ConclusionsMost of the current United States CRC deaths are attributable to nonscreening. This underscores the potential benefits of increasing screening uptake in the population. Traditional methods of estimating PAF underestimated screening effects compared with model-based approaches.
| S-EPMC4554530 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionAlcohol is a leading contributor to liver disease, however, estimating the proportion of liver disease deaths attributable to alcohol use can be methodologically challenging.MethodsWe compared three approaches for estimating alcohol-attributable liver disease deaths (AALDD), using the USA as an example. One involved summing deaths from alcoholic liver disease and a proportion from unspecified cirrhosis (direct method); two used population attributable fraction (PAF) methodology, including one that adjusted for per capita alcohol sales. For PAFs, the 2011-2015 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and per capita sales from the Alcohol Epidemiologic Data System were used to derive alcohol consumption prevalence estimates at various levels (excessive alcohol use was defined by medium and high consumption levels). Prevalence estimates were used with relative risks from two meta-analyses, and PAFs were applied to the 2011-2015 average annual number of deaths from alcoholic cirrhosis and unspecified cirrhosis (using National Vital Statistics System data) to estimate AALDD.ResultsThe number of AALDD was higher using the direct method (28 345 annually) than the PAF methods, but similar when alcohol prevalence was adjusted using per capita sales and all alcohol consumption levels were considered (e.g. 25 145 AALDD). Using the PAF method, disaggregating non-drinkers into lifetime abstainers and former drinkers to incorporate relative risks for former drinkers yielded higher AALDD estimates (e.g. 27 686) than methods with all non-drinkers combined.Discussion and conclusionsUsing PAF methods that adjust for per capita sales and model risks for former drinkers yield more complete and possibly more valid AALDD estimates.
| S-EPMC9253033 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) include hepatitis B and C viruses (HBV, HCV), excessive alcohol consumption, rare genetic disorders and diabetes/obesity. The population attributable fractions (PAF) of these factors, however, have not been investigated in population-based studies in the United States.Persons ?68 years diagnosed with HCC (n=6,991) between 1994 and 2007 were identified in the SEER-Medicare database. A 5% random sample (n=255,702) of persons residing in SEER locations were selected for comparison. For each risk factor, odds ratios (ORs), 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) and PAFs were calculated.As anticipated, the risk of HCC was increased in relationship to each factor: HCV (OR 39.89, 95% CI: 36.29-43.84), HBV (OR 11.17, 95% CI: 9.18-13.59), alcohol-related disorders (OR 4.06, 95% CI: 3.82-4.32), rare metabolic disorders (OR 3.45, 95% CI: 2.97-4.02), and diabetes and/or obesity (OR 2.47, 95% CI: 2.34-2.61). The PAF of all factors combined was 64.5% (males 65.6%; females 62.2%). The PAF was highest among Asians (70.1%) and lowest among black persons (52.4%). Among individual factors, diabetes/obesity had the greatest PAF (36.6%), followed by alcohol-related disorders (23.5%), HCV (22.4%), HBV (6.3%) and rare genetic disorders (3.2%). While diabetes/obesity had the greatest PAF among both males (36.4%) and females (36.7%), alcohol-related disorders had the second greatest PAF among males (27.8%) and HCV the second greatest among females (28.1%). Diabetes/obesity had the greatest PAF among whites (38.9%) and Hispanics (38.1%), while HCV had the greatest PAF among Asians (35.4%) and blacks (34.9%). The second greatest PAF was alcohol-related disorders in whites (25.6%), Hispanics (30.1%) and blacks (and 18.5%) and HBV in Asians (28.5%).The dominant risk factors for HCC in the United States among persons ?68 years differ by sex and race/ethnicity. Overall, eliminating diabetes/obesity could reduce the incidence of HCC more than the elimination of any other factor.
| S-EPMC4105976 | biostudies-literature
Project description:There is a well-established relationship between high ambient temperature and risk of death. However, the number of deaths attributable to heat each year in the United States remains incompletely quantified.MethodsWe replicated the approach from a large, international study to estimate temperature-mortality associations in 297 United States counties and additionally calculated the number of deaths attributable to heat, a quantity of likely interest to policymakers and the public.ResultsAcross 297 counties representing 61.9% of the United States population in 2000, we estimate that an average of 5,608 (95% empirical confidence interval = 4,748, 6,291) deaths were attributable to heat annually, 1997-2006.ConclusionsOur results suggest that the number of deaths related to heat in the United States is substantially larger than previously reported.
| S-EPMC7289128 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeWe estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) of established risk factors for colorectal cancer, to provide evidence for prioritizing cancer prevention policy.Materials and methodsThe exposure prevalence was calculated by using data from the 2005 Korean National Health Examination Survey for tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption, obesity, physical inactivity, and meat intake. Risk estimates (relative risks) were selected from the published meta-analyses. Cancer incidence data from the Korea Central Cancer Registry were used to estimate the preventable number of colorectal cancer cases in 2015.ResultsThe PAFs of the tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption, obesity, physical inactivity, and consumption of red and processed meat were as follows: 9.2%, 11.1%, 9.1%, 18.9%, and 10.1% for colon cancer and 21.8%, 12.3%, 3.5%, 5.3%, and 9.2% for rectal cancer among men; 1.0%, 1.3%, 2.7%, 12.3% and 9.2% for colon cancer and 1.7%, 2.3%, 0.8%, 7.2%, and 8.3% for rectal cancer among women. The PAFs of selected risk factors were 46.2% for colon and 42.4% for rectum among men, while 24.3% for colon and 18.9% for rectum among women. The attributable numbers of colon and rectal cancer to selected risk factors were 4,028 and 3,049 cases among men, respectively, while 1,644 and 778 cases among women in the year of 2015.ConclusionChanges in modifiable risk factors could prevent half of the colorectal cancer in the Korean population.
| S-EPMC8053879 | biostudies-literature
Project description:A revised Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was developed to simulate the emission, reactions, transport, deposition and gas-to-particle partitioning processes of 16 priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), as described in Part I of the two-part series. The updated CMAQ model was applied in this study to quantify the contributions of different emission sources to the predicted PAH concentrations and excess cancer risk in the United States (US) in 2011. The cancer risk in the continental US due to inhalation exposure of outdoor naphthalene (NAPH) and seven larger carcinogenic PAHs (cPAHs) was predicted to be significant. The incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) exceeds 1×10-5 in many urban and industrial areas. Exposure to PAHs was estimated to result in 5704 (608-10,800) excess lifetime cancer cases. Point sources not related with energy generation and the oil and gas processes account for approximately 31% of the excess cancer cases, followed by non-road engines with 18.6% contributions. Contributions of residential wood combustion (16.2%) are similar to that of transportation-related sources (mostly motor vehicles with small contributions from railway and marine vessels; 13.4%). The oil and gas industry emissions, although large contributors to high concentrations of cPAHs regionally, are only responsible of 4.3% of the excess cancer cases, which is similar to the contributions of non-US sources (6.8%) and non-point sources (7.2%). The power generation units pose the most minimal impact on excess cancer risk, with contributions of approximately 2.3%.
| S-EPMC6205197 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionTo help target preventive strategies, we estimated US population attributable risks (PARs) of demographic and potentially modifiable risk factors for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA), and gastric noncardia adenocarcinoma (GNCA).MethodsWe prospectively examined the associations for risk factors and these cancers in 490,605 people in the National Institutes of Health-the American Association of Retired Persons Diet and Health cohort Diet and Health Study cohort from 1995 to 2011. Exposures were obtained from the baseline questionnaire. Diagnoses of gastroesophageal reflux disease were extracted for a subset of eligible National Institutes of Health-the American Association of Retired Persons Diet and Health cohort subjects through linkage to Medicare and then multiply imputed for non-Medicare-eligible subjects. Hazard ratios were calculated using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression. Adjusted population attributable risks were calculated for the US population aged 50-71 years by combining the hazard ratios with the estimated joint distribution of risk factor prevalence from the 2015 National Health Interview Survey.ResultsSmoking remained the most important risk factor for ESCC and was estimated to cause more than 1/3 of EAC and GCA and 1/10 of GNCA. Obesity and gastroesophageal reflux disease were associated with more than 1/2 of EAC and 1/3 of GCA. Compared with each lowest-risk level category, common risk factors were estimated to be associated with 73.7% of ESCC (95% confidence interval [CI]: 62.1%-85.4%), 70.3% of EAC (95% CI: 64.4%-76.2%), 69.3% of GCA (95% CI: 61.0%-77.7%), and 33.6% of GNCA (95% CI: 21.7%-45.5%).DiscussionThese factors accounted for a large proportion of esophageal and gastric cancers in the United States, highlighting opportunities for education and intervention to reduce the burden of these highly fatal cancers.
| S-EPMC8410651 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This study aimed to estimate potential reductions in case incidence of colorectal cancer attributable to the modifiable risk factors such as alcohol consumption, overweight and physical inactivity amongst the Malaysian population.Gender specific population-attributable fractions (PAFs) for colorectal cancer in Malaysia were estimated for the three selected risk factors (physical inactivity, overweight, and alcohol consumptions). Exposure prevalence were sourced from a large-scale national representative survey. Risk estimates of the relationship between the exposure of interest and colorectal cancer were obtained from published meta-analyses. The overall PAF was then estimated, using the 2013 national cancer incidence data from the Malaysian Cancer Registry.Overall, the mean incidence rate for colorectal cancer in Malaysia from 2008 to 2013 was 21.3 per 100,000 population, with the mean age of 61.6 years (±12.7) and the majority were men (56.6%). Amongst 369 colorectal cancer cases in 2013, 40 cases (20 men, 20 women), 10 cases (9 men, 1 woman) or 20 cases (16 men,4 women) would be prevented, if they had done physical exercises, could reduce their body weight to normal level or avoided alcohol consumption, assuming that these factors are causally related to colorectal cancer. It was estimated that 66 (17.8%;66/369) colorectal cancer cases (42 men, 24 women) who had all these three risk factors for the last 10 years would have been prevented, if they could control these three risk factors through effective preventive measures.Findings suggest that approximately 18% of colorectal cancer cases in Malaysia would be prevented through appropriate preventive measures such as doing regular physical exercises, reducing their body weight to normal level and avoiding alcohol consumption, if these factors are causally related to colorectal cancer. Scaling-up nationwide public health campaigns tailored to increase physical activity, controlling body weight within normal limits and avoid alcohol intake are recommended. Future studies with other site-specific cancers and additional risk factors are needed.
| S-EPMC5544995 | biostudies-other