Dataset Information

Time-Varying mHAP-III Is the Most Accurate Predictor of Survival in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Transarterial Chemoembolization.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

The prognosis of patients undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is extremely variable, and a confounding factor is that TACE is often repeated several times. We retrospectively evaluated the accuracy of different prognostic scores and staging systems in estimating overall survival (OS) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Methods

An analysis considering prognostic models as time-varying variables was performed, calculating OS from the time of TACE to the time of the subsequent treatment. Total follow-up time for each patient was therefore split into several observation times accounting for each TACE procedure. Values of the likelihood ratio test (LRT) and Akaike information criterion (AIC) were used to compare different systems. Univariable and multivariable analyses were conducted to identify additional factors predictive of OS. We analyzed 1,610 TACE performed in 1,058 patients recorded in the Italian Liver Cancer database from 2008 through 2016.

Results

The median OS of the enrolled patients was 41 months. According to LRT χ² and AIC values based on the time-varying analysis, mHAP-III achieved the best values (41.72 and 4,625.49, respectively, p < 0.0001), indicating the highest predictive performance compared with all other scores (HAP, mHAP-II, ALBI, and pALBI) and staging systems (MELD, ITALICA, CLIP, MESH, MESIAH, JIS, HKLC, and BCLC). In the multivariable Cox proportional hazards model, mHAP-III maintained an independent effect on OS (hazard ratio 1.31, 95% CI: 1.10-1.55, p < 0.0001). Time-varying age, alcoholic etiology, radiologic response to TACE, and performing ablation or surgery after TACE were additional significant variables resulting from the multivariable model.

Conclusion

An innovative time-varying analysis revealed that mHAP-III was the most accurate model in predicting OS in patients with HCC undergoing TACE. Other clinical pre- and post-TACE variables were also found to be relevant for this prediction.

SUBMITTER: Campani C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8077424 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Time-Varying mHAP-III Is the Most Accurate Predictor of Survival in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Transarterial Chemoembolization.

Campani Claudia C Vitale Alessandro A Dragoni Gabriele G Arena Umberto U Laffi Giacomo G Cillo Umberto U Giannini Edoardo G EG Tovoli Francesco F Rapaccini Gian Ludovico GL Di Marco Maria M Caturelli Eugenio E Zoli Marco M Sacco Rodolfo R Cabibbo Giuseppe G Mega Andrea A Guarino Maria M Gasbarrini Antonio A Gasbarrini Antonio A Svegliati-Baroni Gianluca G Foschi Francesco Giuseppe FG Biasini Elisabetta E Masotto Alberto A Nardone Gerardo G Raimondo Giovanni G Azzaroli Francesco F Vidili Gianpaolo G Brunetto Maurizia Rossana MR Farinati Fabio F Trevisani Franco F Marra Fabio F

Liver cancer 20210317 2

<h4>Introduction</h4>The prognosis of patients undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is extremely variable, and a confounding factor is that TACE is often repeated several times. We retrospectively evaluated the accuracy of different prognostic scores and staging systems in estimating overall survival (OS) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).<h4>Methods</h4>An analysis considering prognostic models as time-varying variables was performed, calculating OS from the time of T ...[more]

PMID: 33977089

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Project description:Sarcopenia has been associated with lower overall survival in patients with cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing surgical resection, TACE, TARE, or transplantation. This monocentric study evaluated the prognostic significance of sarcopenia in patients affected by HCC who received bland transarterial embolization (TAE) therapy, by analyzing its impact on survival and treatment-related complications. All consecutive patients who underwent the 1st TAE between March 1st 2011 and July 1st 2019 in our Institution were retrospectively studied. To evaluate sarcopenia, the skeletal muscle index (SMI) was calculated by normalizing the cross-sectional muscle area at the level of L3 on an abdominal CT scan prior to embolization (cm2) by patient height (m2). SMI cut-off values for sarcopenia were considered ≤ 39 cm2/m2 for women and ≤55 cm2/m2 for men. Data about age, gender, body mass index (BMI), underlying liver disease, liver function, MELD score, Child-Pugh score, multifocal disease, performance status, previous interventions, length of stay (LOS), complications after the procedure, readmission rate within 30 days, survival time from TAE and total number and type of TAE received following the first procedure were collected. From 2011 to 2019, 142 consecutive patients underwent 305 TAEs. Observation time ranged from 1.4 to 100.5 months (median 20.1 SD = 22). Sarcopenia at baseline was present in 121 (85%) patients. Overall 87 (61.2%) patients died during follow-up with survival rates at 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-year of 71%, 41%, 22%, 16% and 11% respectively. After multivariate analysis sarcopenia (HR = 2.22, p = 0.046), previous ablation/resection (HR = 0.51, p = 0.005) and multifocal disease (HR = 1.84, p = 0.02) were associated with reduced survival. Sarcopenia did not influence the safety of TAE in terms of LOS (2 days vs 1.5 days, p = 0.2), early complications rate (8% vs 5%, p = 0.5) and readmission rate within 30 days (7% vs 5%, p = 0.74). Sarcopenia, estimated by the L3SMI method, is an emerging prognostic factor in patients with HCC undergoing bland TAE therapy as it is associated with increased mortality, without impairing the safety of the locoregional treatment. Measures to ameliorate the SMI, such as nutritional support and physical exercise, should be evaluated in clinical trials for HCC patients receiving liver embolization to determine their impact on overall survival.

Project description:Patients with HCC receiving TACE have various clinical outcomes. Several prognostic models have been proposed to predict clinical outcomes for patients with hepatocellular carcinomas (HCC) undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), but establishing an accurate prognostic model remains necessary. We aimed to develop a radiomics signature from pretreatment CT to establish a combined radiomics-clinic (CRC) model to predict survival for these patients. We compared this CRC model to the existing prognostic models in predicting patient survival. This retrospective study included multicenter data from 162 treatment-naïve patients with unresectable HCC undergoing TACE as an initial treatment from January 2007 and March 2017. We randomly allocated patients to a training cohort (n = 108) and a testing cohort (n = 54). Radiomics features were extracted from intra- and peritumoral regions on both the arterial phase and portal venous phase CT images. A radiomics signature (Rad-signature) for survival was constructed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method in the training cohort. We used univariate and multivariate Cox regressions to identify associations between the Rad- signature and clinical factors of survival. From these, a CRC model was developed, validated, and further compared with previously published prognostic models including four-and-seven criteria, six-and-twelve score, hepatoma arterial-embolization prognostic scores, and albumin-bilirubin grade. The CRC model incorporated two variables: The Rad-signature (composed of features extracted from intra- and peritumoral regions on the arterial phase and portal venous phase) and tumor number. The CRC model performed better than the other seven well-recognized prognostic models, with concordance indices of 0.73 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68-0.79] and 0.70 [95% CI 0.62-0.82] in the training and testing cohorts, respectively. Among the seven models tested, the six-and-12 score and four-and-seven criteria performed better than the other models, with C-indices of 0.64 [95% CI 0.58-0.70] and 0.65 [95% CI 0.55-0.75] in the testing cohort, respectively. The CT radiomics signature represents an independent biomarker of survival in patients with HCC undergoing TACE, and the CRC model displayed improved predictive performance.

Dataset Information

Time-Varying mHAP-III Is the Most Accurate Predictor of Survival in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Transarterial Chemoembolization.

Introduction

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Time-Varying mHAP-III Is the Most Accurate Predictor of Survival in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Transarterial Chemoembolization.

Similar Datasets

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