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Air pollution rebound and different recovery modes during the period of easing COVID-19 restrictions.

ABSTRACT: Although COVID-19 lockdown policies have improved air quality in numerous countries, there is a lack of empirical evidence on the extent to which recovery has resulted in air pollution rebound, and the differences and similarities among regions' recovery modes during the period of easing COVID-19 restrictions. Here, we used daily air quality data and the recovery index constructed by a city-pair inflow index for 119 cities in China to quantify the impact of recovery on air pollution from March 2 to October 30, 2020. Findings show that recovery has significantly increased air pollution. When the recovery level increased by 10 %, the concentration of PM_2.5, SO₂, and NO₂ respectively deteriorated by 1.10, 0.33, 1.25 μg/m³, and the average growth rates of three air pollutants were about 3 %-6 %. Moreover, we used the counterfactual framework and time series clustering with wavelet transform to cluster the rebound trajectory of air pollution for 17 provinces into five recovery modes. Results show that COVID-19 has further intensified regional differentiations in economic development ability and green recovery trend. Three northwestern provinces dependent on their resource endowments belong to energy-intensive recovery mode, which have experienced a sharp rebound of air pollution for two months, thereby making green recovery more challenging to achieve. Three regions with a diversified industrial structure are in industrial-restructuring recovery mode, which has effectively returned to a normal level through adjusting industrial structure and technological innovation. Owing to local policies and the outbreak of COVID-19 in other countries, six provinces in policy-oriented and international trade-oriented recovery modes have not fully recovered to the level without COVID-19 until October 2020. The result highlights the importance of diversifying industrial structure, technological innovation, policy flexibility and industrial upgrading for different recovery modes to achieve long-term green recovery in the future.

SUBMITTER: Dong X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9222490 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ImportanceSocial restrictions intended to limit the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 may have also been associated with decreased rates of other communicable diseases. Evidence suggests that infection incidence rates (IRs) are rebounding after easing of social restrictions (eg, mask mandates). The reemergence of infectious disease complicates efforts to manage the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.ObjectiveTo examine IRs of frequently occurring infectious diseases after a successful SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaign in Israel and cessation of social restrictions.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional study was conducted using records for respiratory and gastrointestinal infectious diseases at 209 community clinics in southern Israel from 2017 to 2021. Included patients attended community clinics from January 1, 2017, to June 30, 2021.ExposuresIncidence of infectious diseases was estimated in the first 3 months after the easing of social restrictions (ie, April-June 2021) across age groups.Main outcomes and measuresAge-specific and disease-specific weekly IRs per 100 000 population for April to June were compared between 2017 and 2021 and expected current IR was estimated using segmented linear regression. Growth rates of respiratory infections across years and weekly diagnoses detected by real-time polymerase chain reaction testing were also compared.ResultsAmong 386 711 patients with a total of 1 221 568 visits to community clinics, the mean (SD) age was 27.29 (23.93) years, and there were 202 494 (52.3%) male patients and 184 217 (47.7%) female patients. Children aged 0 to 3 years had significantly increased rates of respiratory and gastrointestinal infection diagnoses (IR ratio, 2.64; 95% CI, 2:30-2.91; P < .001). In addition, incidence of non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory infections were significantly increased across age groups (IR ratio, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.56-1.94; P < .001).Conclusions and relevanceThese morbidity trends observed in Israel suggest that similar trends could occur in coming months in other countries after easing of COVID-19-related restrictions, particularly with the ongoing challenges of SARS-CoV-2 variants.

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Air pollution rebound and different recovery modes during the period of easing COVID-19 restrictions.

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