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COVID-19 Vaccine Allocation: Modeling Health Outcomes and Equity Implications of Alternative Strategies.

ABSTRACT: Given the scarcity of safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines, a chief policy question is how to allocate them among different sociodemographic groups. This paper evaluates COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies proposed to date, focusing on their stated goals; the mechanisms through which the selected allocations affect the course and burden of the pandemic; and the main epidemiological, economic, logistical, and political issues that arise when setting the prioritization strategy. The paper uses a simple, age-stratified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model to quantitatively assess the performance of alternative prioritization strategies with respect to avoided deaths, avoided infections, and life-years gained. We demonstrate that prioritizing essential workers is a viable strategy for reducing the number of cases and years of life lost, while the largest reduction in deaths is achieved by prioritizing older adults in most scenarios, even if the vaccine is effective at blocking viral transmission. Uncertainty regarding this property and potential delays in dose delivery reinforce the call for prioritizing older adults. Additionally, we investigate the strength of the equity motive that would support an allocation strategy attaching absolute priority to essential workers for a vaccine that reduces infection-fatality risk.

SUBMITTER: Ferranna M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8089031 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundThe development and widespread use of an effective SARS-CoV-2 vaccine could prevent substantial morbidity and mortality associated with COVID-19 and mitigate the secondary effects associated with non-pharmaceutical interventions.MethodsWe used an age-structured, expanded SEIR model with social contact matrices to assess age-specific vaccine allocation strategies in India. We used state-specific age structures and disease transmission coefficients estimated from confirmed incident cases of COVID-19 between 1 July and 31 August 2020. Simulations were used to investigate the relative reduction in mortality and morbidity of vaccine allocation strategies based on prioritizing different age groups, and the interactions of these strategies with concurrent non-pharmaceutical interventions. Given the uncertainty associated with COVID-19 vaccine development, we varied vaccine characteristics in the modelling simulations.ResultsPrioritizing COVID-19 vaccine allocation for older populations (i.e., >60 years) led to the greatest relative reduction in deaths, regardless of vaccine efficacy, control measures, rollout speed, or immunity dynamics. Preferential vaccination of this group often produced relatively higher total symptomatic infections and more pronounced estimates of peak incidence than other assessed strategies. Vaccine efficacy, immunity type, target coverage, and rollout speed significantly influenced overall strategy effectiveness, with the time taken to reach target coverage significantly affecting the relative mortality benefit comparative to no vaccination.ConclusionsOur findings support global recommendations to prioritize COVID-19 vaccine allocation for older age groups. Relative differences between allocation strategies were reduced as the speed of vaccine rollout was increased. Optimal vaccine allocation strategies will depend on vaccine characteristics, strength of concurrent non-pharmaceutical interventions, and region-specific goals.

Project description:BackgroundJiangsu was one of the first four pilot provinces to engage in comprehensive health care reform in China, which has been on-going for the past 5 years. This study aims to evaluate the equity, efficiency and productivity of health care resource allocation in Jiangsu Province using the most recent data, analyse the causes of deficiencies, and discuss measures to solve these problems.MethodsData were extracted from the Jiangsu Health/Family Planning Statistical Yearbook (2015-2019) and Jiangsu Statistical Yearbook (2015-2019). The Gini coefficient (G), Theil index (T) and health resource density index (HRDI) were chosen to study the fairness of health resource allocation in Jiangsu Province. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) and the Malmquist productivity index (MPI) were used to analyse the efficiency and productivity of this allocation.ResultsFrom 2014 to 2018, the total amount of health resources in Jiangsu Province increased. The G of primary resource allocation by population remained below 0.15, and that by geographical area was between 0.14 and 0.28; additionally, the G of health financial resources was below 0.26, and that by geographical area was above 0.39. T was consistent with the results for G and Lorenz curves. The HRDI shows that the allocated amounts of health care resources were the highest in southern Jiangsu, except for the number of health institutions. The average value of TE was above 0.93, and the DEA results were invalid for only two cities. From 2014 to 2018, the mean TFPC in Jiangsu was less than 1, and the values exceeded 1 for only five cities.ConclusionThe equity of basic medical resources was better than that of financial resources, and the equity of geographical allocation was better than that of population allocation. The overall efficiency of health care resource allocation was high; however, the total factor productivity of the whole province has declined due to technological regression. Jiangsu Province needs to further optimize the allocation and increase the utilization efficiency of health care resources.

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COVID-19 Vaccine Allocation: Modeling Health Outcomes and Equity Implications of Alternative Strategies.

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