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The living heart: Climate gradients predict desert mountain endemism.

ABSTRACT: Mountain regions are centers of biodiversity endemism at a global scale but the role of arid-zone mountain ranges in shaping biodiversity patterns is poorly understood. Focusing on three guilds of taxa from a desert upland refugium in Australia, we sought to determine: (a) the relative extent to which climate, terrain or geological substrate predict endemism, and (b) whether patterns of endemism are complimentary across broad taxonomic guilds. We mapped regional endemism for plants, land snails, and vertebrates using combined Species Distribution Models (SDMs) for all endemic taxa (n = 82). We then modelled predictors of endemism using Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) and geology, terrain, and climate variables. We tested for the presence of inter- and intraguild hotspots of endemism. Many individual plant and land snail taxa were tightly linked with geology, corresponding to small distributions. Conversely, most vertebrate taxa were not constrained to specific geological substrates and occurred over larger areas. However, across all three guilds climate was the strongest predictor of regional endemism, particularly for plants wherein discrete hotspots of endemism were buffered from extreme summer temperatures. Land snail and vertebrate endemism peaked in areas with highest precipitation in the driest times of the year. Hotspots of endemism within each guild poorly predicted endemism in other guilds. We found an overarching signal that climatic gradients play a dominant role in the persistence of endemic taxa in an arid-zone mountain range system. An association with higher rainfall and cooler temperatures indicates that continuing trends toward hotter and drier climates may lead to range contractions in this, and potentially other, arid-zone mountain biotas. Contrasting patterns of endemism across guilds highlight the need to couple comprehensive regional planning for the protection of climate refugia, with targeted management of more localized and habitat specialist taxa.

SUBMITTER: McDonald PJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8093673 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Following a predicted decline in water resources in the Mediterranean Basin, we used reaction-diffusion equations to gain a better understanding of expected changes in properties of vegetation patterns that evolve along the rainfall transition between semi-arid and arid rainfall regions. Two types of scenarios were investigated: the first, a discrete scenario, where the potential consequences of climate change are represented by patterns evolving at discrete rainfall levels along a rainfall gradient. This scenario concerns space-for-time substitutions characteristic of the rainfall gradient hypothesis. The second, a continuous scenario, represents explicitly the effect of rainfall decline on patterns which evolved at different rainfall levels along the rainfall gradient prior to the climate change. The eccentricity of patterns that emerge through these two scenarios was found to decrease with decreasing rainfall, while their solidity increased. Due to their inverse modes of change, their ratio was found to be a highly sensitive indicator for pattern response to rainfall decline. An eccentricity ratio versus rainfall (ER:R) line was generalized from the results of the discrete experiment, where ERs above this line represent developed (recovered) patterns and ERs below this line represent degraded patterns. For the rainfall range of 1.2 to 0.8 mm/day, the continuous rainfall decline experiment with ERs that lie above the ER:R line, yielded patterns less affected by rainfall decline than would be expected according to the discrete representation of ecosystems' response. Thus, for this range, space-for-time substitution represents an overestimation of the consequences of the expected rainfall decline. For rainfall levels below 0.8 mm/day, eccentricity ratios from the discrete and continuous experiments practically converge to the same trend of pattern change along the ER:R line. Thus, the rainfall gradient hypothesis may be valid for regions characterized by this important rainfall range, which typically include desert fringe ecosystems.

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The living heart: Climate gradients predict desert mountain endemism.

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