Body Mass Index Trajectories and Duration of Obesity in Thai Children Diagnosed with Hypertension.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Paksi W
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8111269 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Little research has addressed the heterogeneity and mortality risk in body mass index (BMI) trajectories among older populations. Applying latent class trajectory models to 9,538 adults aged 51 to 77 years from the US Health and Retirement Study (1992-2008), we defined 6 latent BMI trajectories: normal weight downward, normal weight upward, overweight stable, overweight obesity, class I obese upward, and class II/III obese upward. Using survival analysis, we found that people in the overweight stable trajectory had the highest survival rate, followed by those in the overweight obesity, normal weight upward, class I obese upward, normal weight downward, and class II/III obese upward trajectories. The results were robust after controlling for baseline demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, smoking status, limitations in activities of daily living, a wide range of chronic illnesses, and self-rated health. Further analysis suggested that BMI trajectories were more predictive of mortality risk than was static BMI status. Using attributable risk analysis, we found that approximately 7.2% of deaths after 51 years of age among the 1931-1941 birth cohort were due to class I and class II/III obese upward trajectories. This suggests that trajectories of increasing obesity past 51 years of age pose a substantive threat to future gains in life expectancy.
| S-EPMC3842899 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundObesity is a leading risk for poor health outcomes in England. We examined best- and worst-case scenarios for the future trajectory of the obesity epidemic.MethodsTaking the last 27 years of Health Survey for England data, we determined both position and shape of the adult body mass index (BMI) distribution and projected these parameters 20 years forward in time. For the best-case scenario, we fitted linear models, allowing for a quadratic relationship between the outcome variable and time, to reflect a potential reversal in upwards trends. For the worst-case scenario, we fitted non-linear models that applied an exponential function to reflect a potential flattening of trends over time. Best-fitting models were identified using Monte Carlo cross-validation on 1991-2014 data, and predictions of population prevalence across five BMI categories were then validated using 2015-17 data.ResultsBoth linear and non-linear models showed a close fit to observed data (mean absolute error <2%). In the best-case scenario, the proportion of the population at increased risk (BMI≥25kg/m2) is predicted to fall from 66% in 2017 to 53% (95% confidence interval: 41% to 64%) in 2035. In the worst-case scenario, this proportion is likely to remain relatively stable overall- 64% (37% to 90%) in 2035 -but with an increasing proportion of the population at highest risk (BMI≥35kg/m2).ConclusionsWhile obesity prediction depends on chosen modelling methods, even under optimistic assumptions it is likely that the majority of the English population will still be at increased risk of disease due to their weight until at least 2035, without greater allocation of resources to effective interventions.
| S-EPMC8172072 | biostudies-literature
Project description:It is unclear whether there are different body mass index (BMI) trajectories among a population with normal BMI levels, and the association between BMI patterns and incident hypertension is not well characterized. This prospective cohort study includes surveys conducted at baseline and three follow-ups. 3939 participants who are free of hypertension at baseline or first two follow-ups were enrolled. At baseline, the age of participants ranged from 35 to 82 years and the mean age was 45.9 years. The BMI trajectories were identified using latent mixture modeling with data from the baseline and first two follow-ups. The effects of different BMI trajectories on the development of hypertension were analyzed using a Cox proportional hazard model. Four distinct BMI trajectories were identified over the study period (2004-2010): normal-stable (n = 1456), normal-increasing (n = 2159), normal-fluctuated (n = 166), and normal-sharp-increasing (n = 158). Relative to the normal-stable BMI group, the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) after adjustment for confounding factors of the normal-increasing, normal-fluctuated, and normal-sharp-increasing groups were 1.244 (1.103-1.402), 1.331 (1.008-1.756), and 1.641 (1.257-2.142), respectively. Additionally, subgroup analysis showed that the normal-fluctuated BMI trajectory was associated with a significantly higher risk of hypertension only in women (HR = 1.362; 95% CI = 1.151-1.611). The BMI trajectories were significant predictors of hypertension incidence, and increasing BMI trajectories within the currently designated normal range were associated with an increased hypertension risk, especially in women.
| S-EPMC8678668 | biostudies-literature
Project description:[Figure: see text].
| S-EPMC7610444 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundElevated childhood body mass index (BMI), commonly examined as a "once-only" value, increases the risk of cancer and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in adulthood. Continuous exposure to adiposity during childhood may further increase cancer risk. We examined whether longitudinal childhood BMI trajectories were associated with adult obesity-related cancer and the role of adult-onset T2D in these associations.MethodsFive sex-specific latent class BMI trajectories were generated for 301 927 children (149 325 girls) aged 6-15 years from the Copenhagen School Health Records Register. Information on obesity-related cancers and T2D was obtained from national health registers. Incidence rate ratios (IRR), cumulative incidences, and confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using Poisson regressions.ResultsCompared with the average childhood BMI trajectory (containing approximately 40% of individuals), the rate of obesity-related cancer (excluding breast cancer) increased with higher childhood BMI trajectories among women. The highest rates occurred in the overweight (IRR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.17 to 1.38) and obesity (IRR = 1.79, 95% CI = 1.53 to 2.08) BMI trajectories. Similar patterns were observed among men. In contrast, women with the obesity childhood BMI trajectory had the lowest rate of pre- and postmenopausal breast cancer (IRR = 0.59, 95% CI = 0.43 to 0.80, and IRR = 0.41, 95% CI = 0.30 to 0.57, respectively). For all trajectories, the cumulative risk of obesity-related cancer increased with adult-onset T2D.ConclusionConsistent childhood overweight or obesity may increase the rates of adult obesity-related cancer and decrease the rates of breast cancer. Adult-onset T2D conferred additional risk for obesity-related cancer, but the effect did not differ across childhood BMI trajectories.
| S-EPMC9830482 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAlthough sleep duration is a risk factor for obesity in young children, less is known about other aspects of sleep health, including bedtime, on obesity risk.ObjectiveTo determine whether bedtime is associated with body mass index (BMI) z-score or obesity risk in children ages 2 to 5 years, and to determine if associations are independent of sleep duration.MethodsCohort analyses were undertaken using three early life obesity prevention trials (POI, INSIGHT, Healthy Beginnings) and a longitudinal cohort study (HOME). Bedtime was assessed by questionnaire and BMI through clinical measurement between 2 and 5 years in 1642 children. Adjusted regression models examined whether BMI z-score and obesity (BMI z-score ≥ 2) were associated with bedtime, nocturnal sleep time and 24-hour sleep time. A discrete mixture model categorized children into bedtime trajectory groups across time points.ResultsBedtime was inconsistently associated with BMI z-score. Although each hour later of bedtime was associated with greater odds of obesity at ages 3 (OR; 95% CI: 1.05; 1.003, 1.10) and 5 (1.35; 1.08, 1.69) years, odds were attenuated after adjustment for nocturnal or 24-hour sleep time. Longer nocturnal sleep duration at 2 years was associated with lower odds of obesity (OR 0.90; 0.86, 0.94), as was longer 24-hour sleep duration at 3 years in girls (0.70; 0.62, 0.78). BMI z-score and odds of obesity were not significantly different between 'early to bed' and 'late to bed' trajectory groups.ConclusionsTiming of bedtime appears inconsistently related to obesity in young children, possibly via influencing overall sleep duration.
| S-EPMC7745736 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Identifying how socioeconomic positioning and genetic factors interact in the development of obesity is imperative for population-level obesity prevention strategies. The current study investigated whether social positioning, either independently or through interaction with a polygenic score for Body Mass Index (BMI-PGS), influences BMI trajectories across older adulthood. Data were analysed from 7,183 individuals from the English Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSA). Interactions between the BMI-PGS and; lower educational attainment, self-perceived social status (SSS), and income, on BMI trajectories over 12 years across older adulthood were investigated through linear mixed effects models. Lower educational attainment, SSS and income were each associated with a higher baseline BMI for women, but not for men. There were interaction effects between BMI-PGS and social positioning such that men aged > 65 with a lower educational attainment (β = 0.62; 95%CI 0.00 - 1.24, p < 0.05), men aged ≤ 65 of a lower income (β = - 0.72, 95%CI - 1.21 - - 0.23, p < 0.01) and women aged ≤ 65 of lower SSS (β = - 1.41; 95%CI - 2.46 - 0.36, p < 0.01) showed stronger associations between the BMI-PGS and baseline BMI. There were few associations between markers of socioeconomic position and rate of change in BMI over the follow-up period. In sum, lower socioeconomic positioning showed adverse associations with women's BMI in older adulthood. Moreover, the expression of the BMI-PGS, or extent to which it translates to a higher BMI, was subtly influenced by socioeconomic standing in both women and in men.
| S-EPMC8514538 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundExcess body fatness, commonly approximated by a one-off determination of body mass index (BMI), is associated with increased risk of at least 13 cancers. Modelling of longitudinal BMI data may be more informative for incident cancer associations, e.g. using latent class trajectory modelling (LCTM) may offer advantages in capturing changes in patterns with time. Here, we evaluated the variation in cancer risk with LCTMs using specific age recall versus decade recall BMI.MethodsWe obtained BMI profiles for participants from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. We developed gender-specific LCTMs using recall data from specific ages 20 and 50 years (72,513 M; 74,837 W); decade data from 30s to 70s (42,113 M; 47,352 W) and a combination of both (74,106 M, 76,245 W). Using an established methodological framework, we tested 1:7 classes for linear, quadratic, cubic and natural spline shapes, and modelled associations for obesity-related cancer (ORC) incidence using LCTM class membership.ResultsDifferent models were selected depending on the data type used. In specific age recall trajectories, only the two heaviest classes were associated with increased risk of ORC. For the decade recall data, the shapes appeared skewed by outliers in the heavier classes but an increase in ORC risk was observed. In the combined models, at older ages the BMI values were more extreme.ConclusionsSpecific age recall models supported the existing literature changes in BMI over time are associated with increased ORC risk. Modelling of decade recall data might yield spurious associations.
| S-EPMC8097878 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Although several studies have addressed developmental trajectories from childhood to adolescence of internalizing/externalizing problems, limited attention has been given to underweight children. Two groups were recruited for this study from a community sample: underweight (Ug, N?=?80, 50% female) and normal weight (NWg, N?=?80, 50% female) to examine the developmental trajectories of body mass index and emotional-behavioral functioning of underweight children from the age two years, and their risk of eating disorder at early adolescence. The study was organized over four waves, each of three years. Pediatricians measured BMI, parents completed the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) and the Eating Disorders Inventory-Referral Form (EDI-3-RF). Our results showed that children in the two groups recorded different BMI trajectories over time. In NWg, male and female subjects started from a higher BMI at T1 than their peers. In Ug, internalizing and externalizing problems in males and females remained higher than their peers at all points of assessment. Males and females in Ug scored higher than those in NWg on EDI-3-RF total score. Our results indicate a need for effective physical and psychological assessment of underweight children in community samples to prevent psychological difficulties and eating disorders in adolescence.
| S-EPMC4726243 | biostudies-other
Project description:Background This longitudinal study aims to characterize longitudinal body mass index ( BMI ) trajectories during young adulthood (20-40 years) and examine the impact of level-independent BMI trajectories on hypertension risk. Methods and Results The cohort consisted of 3271 participants (1712 males and 1559 females) who had BMI and blood pressure ( BP ) repeatedly measured 4 to 11 times during 2004 to 2015 and information on incident hypertension. Four distinct trajectory groups were identified using latent class growth mixture model: low-stable (n=1497), medium-increasing (n=1421), high-increasing (n=291), sharp-increasing (n=62). Model-estimated levels and linear slopes of BMI at each age point between ages 20 and 40 were calculated in 1-year intervals using the latent class growth mixture model parameters and their first derivatives, respectively. Compared with the low-stable group, the hazard ratios and 95% CI were 2.42 (1.88, 3.11), 4.25 (3.08, 5.87), 11.17 (7.60, 16.41) for the 3 increasing groups, respectively. After adjusting for covariates, the standardized odds ratios and 95% CI of model-estimated BMI level for incident hypertension increased in 20 to 35 years, ranging from 0.80 (0.72-0.90) to 1.59 (1.44-1.75); then decreased gradually to 1.54 (1.42-1.68). The standardized odds ratio s of level-adjusted linear slopes increased from 1.22 (1.09-1.37) to 1.79 (1.59-2.01) at 20 to 24 years; then decreased rapidly to 1.12 (0.95-1.32). Conclusions These results indicate that the level-independent BMI trajectories during young adulthood have significant impact on hypertension risk. Age between 20 and 30 years is a crucial period for incident hypertension, which has implications for early prevention.
| S-EPMC6507204 | biostudies-literature