The Mortality Effect of Apparent Temperature: A Multi-City Study in Asia.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Cao R
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8124769 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundPrevious literature suggests that higher ambient temperature may play a role in increasing the risk of suicide. However, no multi-country study has explored the shape of the association and the role of moderate and extreme heat across different locations.ObjectivesWe examined the short-term temperature-suicide relationship using daily time-series data collected for 341 locations in 12 countries for periods ranging from 4 to 40 y.MethodsWe conducted a two-stage meta-analysis. First, we performed location-specific time-stratified case-crossover analyses to examine the temperature-suicide association for each location. Then, we used a multivariate meta-regression to combine the location-specific lag-cumulative nonlinear associations across all locations and by country.ResultsA total of 1,320,148 suicides were included in this study. Higher ambient temperature was associated with an increased risk of suicide in general, and we observed a nonlinear association (inverted J-shaped curve) with the highest risk at 27°C. The relative risk (RR) for the highest risk was 1.33 (95% CI: 1.30, 1.36) compared with the risk at the first percentile. Country-specific results showed that the nonlinear associations were more obvious in northeast Asia (Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan). The temperature with the highest risk of suicide ranged from the 87th to 88th percentiles in the northeast Asian countries, whereas this value was the 99th percentile in Western countries (Canada, Spain, Switzerland, the UK, and the United States) and South Africa, where nearly linear associations were estimated. The country-specific RRs ranged from 1.31 (95% CI: 1.19, 1.44) in the United States to 1.65 (95% CI: 1.40, 1.93) in Taiwan, excluding countries where the results were substantially uncertain.DiscussionOur findings showed that the risk of suicide increased with increasing ambient temperature in many countries, but to varying extents and not necessarily linearly. This temperature-suicide association should be interpreted cautiously, and further evidence of the relationship and modifying factors is needed. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4898.
| S-EPMC6927501 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThere are few multi-city studies on the association between temperature and mortality in basin climates. This study was based on the Sichuan Basin in southwest China to assess the association of basin temperature with non-accidental mortality in the population and with the temperature-related mortality burden.MethodsDaily mortality data, meteorological and air pollution data were collected for four cities in the Sichuan Basin of southwest China. We used a two-stage time-series analysis to quantify the association between temperature and non-accidental mortality in each city, and a multivariate meta-analysis was performed to obtain the overall cumulative risk. The attributable fractions (AFs) were calculated to access the mortality burden attributable to non-optimal temperature. Additionally, we performed a stratified analyses by gender, age group, education level, and marital status.ResultsA total of 751,930 non-accidental deaths were collected in our study. Overall, 10.16% of non-accidental deaths could be attributed to non-optimal temperatures. A majority of temperature-related non-accidental deaths were caused by low temperature, accounting for 9.10% (95% eCI: 5.50%, 12.19%), and heat effects accounted for only 1.06% (95% eCI: 0.76%, 1.33%). The mortality burden attributable to non-optimal temperatures was higher among those under 65 years old, females, those with a low education level, and those with an alternative marriage status.ConclusionsOur study suggested that a significant association between non-optimal temperature and non-accidental mortality. Those under 65 years old, females, and those with a low educational level or alternative marriage status had the highest attributable burden.
| S-EPMC10788187 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIdentifying how greenspace impacts the temperature-mortality relationship in urban environments is crucial, especially given climate change and rapid urbanization. However, the effect modification of greenspace on heat-related mortality has been typically focused on a localized area or single country. This study examined the heat-mortality relationship among different greenspace levels in a global setting.MethodsWe collected daily ambient temperature and mortality data for 452 locations in 24 countries and used Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) as the greenspace measurement. We used distributed lag non-linear model to estimate the heat-mortality relationship in each city and the estimates were pooled adjusting for city-specific average temperature, city-specific temperature range, city-specific population density, and gross domestic product (GDP). The effect modification of greenspace was evaluated by comparing the heat-related mortality risk for different greenspace groups (low, medium, and high), which were divided into terciles among 452 locations.FindingsCities with high greenspace value had the lowest heat-mortality relative risk of 1·19 (95% CI: 1·13, 1·25), while the heat-related relative risk was 1·46 (95% CI: 1·31, 1·62) for cities with low greenspace when comparing the 99th temperature and the minimum mortality temperature. A 20% increase of greenspace is associated with a 9·02% (95% CI: 8·88, 9·16) decrease in the heat-related attributable fraction, and if this association is causal (which is not within the scope of this study to assess), such a reduction could save approximately 933 excess deaths per year in 24 countries.InterpretationOur findings can inform communities on the potential health benefits of greenspaces in the urban environment and mitigation measures regarding the impacts of climate change.FundingThis publication was developed under Assistance Agreement No. RD83587101 awarded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to Yale University. It has not been formally reviewed by EPA. The views expressed in this document are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Agency. EPA does not endorse any products or commercial services mentioned in this publication. Research reported in this publication was also supported by the National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number R01MD012769. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health. Also, this work has been supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (2021R1A6A3A03038675), Medical Research Council-UK (MR/V034162/1 and MR/R013349/1), Natural Environment Research Council UK (Grant ID: NE/R009384/1), Academy of Finland (Grant ID: 310372), European Union's Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (Grant ID: 820655 and 874990), Czech Science Foundation (22-24920S), Emory University's NIEHS-funded HERCULES Center (Grant ID: P30ES019776), and Grant CEX2018-000794-S funded by MCIN/AEI/ 10.13039/501100011033 The funders had no role in the design, data collection, analysis, interpretation of results, manuscript writing, or decision to publication.
| S-EPMC9471476 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe association between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and mortality widely differs between as well as within countries. Differences in PM2.5 composition can play a role in modifying the effect estimates, but there is little evidence about which components have higher impacts on mortality.MethodsWe applied a 2-stage analysis on data collected from 210 locations in 16 countries. In the first stage, we estimated location-specific relative risks (RR) for mortality associated with daily total PM2.5 through time series regression analysis. We then pooled these estimates in a meta-regression model that included city-specific logratio-transformed proportions of seven PM2.5 components as well as meta-predictors derived from city-specific socio-economic and environmental indicators.ResultsWe found associations between RR and several PM2.5 components. Increasing the ammonium (NH4+) proportion from 1% to 22%, while keeping a relative average proportion of other components, increased the RR from 1.0063 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 1.0030, 1.0097) to 1.0102 (95% CI = 1.0070, 1.0135). Conversely, an increase in nitrate (NO3-) from 1% to 71% resulted in a reduced RR, from 1.0100 (95% CI = 1.0067, 1.0133) to 1.0037 (95% CI = 0.9998, 1.0077). Differences in composition explained a substantial part of the heterogeneity in PM2.5 risk.ConclusionsThese findings contribute to the identification of more hazardous emission sources. Further work is needed to understand the health impacts of PM2.5 components and sources given the overlapping sources and correlations among many components.
| S-EPMC7612311 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe evidence and method are limited for the associations between mortality and temperature variability (TV) within or between days.ObjectivesWe developed a novel method to calculate TV and investigated TV-mortality associations using a large multicountry data set.MethodsWe collected daily data for temperature and mortality from 372 locations in 12 countries/regions (Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Japan, Moldova, South Korea, Spain, Taiwan, Thailand, the United Kingdom, and the United States). We calculated TV from the standard deviation of the minimum and maximum temperatures during the exposure days. Two-stage analyses were used to assess the relationship between TV and mortality. In the first stage, a Poisson regression model allowing over-dispersion was used to estimate the community-specific TV-mortality relationship, after controlling for potential confounders. In the second stage, a meta-analysis was used to pool the effect estimates within each country.ResultsThere was a significant association between TV and mortality in all countries, even after controlling for the effects of daily mean temperature. In stratified analyses, TV was still significantly associated with mortality in cold, hot, and moderate seasons. Mortality risks related to TV were higher in hot areas than in cold areas when using short TV exposures (0-1 days), whereas TV-related mortality risks were higher in moderate areas than in cold and hot areas when using longer TV exposures (0-7 days).ConclusionsThe results indicate that more attention should be paid to unstable weather conditions in order to protect health. These findings may have implications for developing public health policies to manage health risks of climate change.CitationGuo Y, Gasparrini A, Armstrong BG, Tawatsupa B, Tobias A, Lavigne E, Coelho MS, Pan X, Kim H, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Guo YL, Wu CF, Zanobetti A, Schwartz JD, Bell ML, Overcenco A, Punnasiri K, Li S, Tian L, Saldiva P, Williams G, Tong S. 2016. Temperature variability and mortality: a multi-country study. Environ Health Perspect 124:1554-1559; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP149.
| S-EPMC5047764 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesAlthough there is substantial evidence for the short-term effect of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on daily mortality, few epidemiological studies have explored the effect of prolonged continuous exposure to high concentrations of PM2.5. This study investigated how the magnitude of the mortality effect of PM2.5 exposure is modified by persistent exposure to high PM2.5 concentrations.MethodsWe analyzed data on the daily mortality count, simulated daily PM2.5 level, mean daily temperature, and relative humidity level from 7 metropolitan cities from 2006 to 2019. Generalized additive models (GAMs) with quasi-Poisson distribution and random-effects meta-analyses were used to pool city-specific effects. To investigate the effect modification of continuous exposure to prolonged high concentrations, we applied categorical consecutive-day variables to the GAMs as effect modification terms for PM2.5.ResultsThe mortality risk increased by 0.33% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.16 to 0.50), 0.47% (95% CI, -0.09 to 1.04), and 0.26% (95% CI, -0.08 to 0.60) for all-cause, respiratory, and cardiovascular diseases, respectively, with a 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentration. The risk of all-cause mortality per 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 on the first and fourth consecutive days significantly increased by 0.63% (95% CI, 0.20 to 1.06) and 0.36% (95% CI, 0.01 to 0.70), respectively.ConclusionsWe found increased risks of all-cause, respiratory, and cardiovascular mortality related to daily PM2.5 exposure on the day when exposure to high PM2.5 concentrations began and when exposure persisted for more than 4 days with concentrations of ≥35 μg/m3. Persistently high PM2.5 exposure had a stronger effect on seniors.
| S-EPMC9754921 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Temperature, a key climate change indicator, is expected to increase substantially in the Northern Hemisphere, with potentially grave implications for human health. This study is the first to investigate the association between the daily 3-hour maximum apparent temperature (Tapp(max)), and respiratory, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular mortality in Copenhagen (1999-2006) using a case-crossover design. Susceptibility was investigated for age, sex, socio-economic status and place of death. For an inter-quartile range (7 °C) increase in Tapp(max), an inverse association was found with cardiovascular mortality (-7% 95% CI -13%; -1%) and none with respiratory and cerebrovascular mortality. In the cold period all associations were inverse, although insignificant.
| S-EPMC3194112 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMany studies have reported the association between ambient temperature and mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the health effects of humidity are still unclear, much less the combined effects of temperature and humidity. In this study, we used humidex to quantify the effect of temperature and humidity combined on CVD mortality.MethodsDaily meteorological, air pollution, and CVD mortality data were collected in four cities in southwest China. We used a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) in the first stage to assess the exposure-response association between humidex and city-specific CVD mortality. A multivariate meta-analysis was conducted in the second stage to pool these effects at the overall level. To evaluate the mortality burden of high and low humidex, we determined the attributable fraction (AF). According to the abovementioned processes, stratified analyses were conducted based on various demographic factors.ResultsHumidex and the CVD exposure-response curve showed an inverted "J" shape, the minimum mortality humidex (MMH) was 31.7 (77th percentile), and the cumulative relative risk (CRR) was 2.27 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.76-2.91). At extremely high and low humidex, CRRs were 1.19 (95% CI, 0.98-1.44) and 2.52 (95% CI, 1.88-3.38), respectively. The burden of CVD mortality attributed to non-optimal humidex was 21.59% (95% empirical CI [eCI], 18.12-24.59%), most of which was due to low humidex, with an AF of 20.16% (95% eCI, 16.72-23.23%).ConclusionsLow humidex could significantly increase the risk of CVD mortality, and vulnerability to humidex differed across populations with different demographic characteristics. The elderly (> 64 years old), unmarried people, and those with a limited level of education (1-9 years) were especially susceptible to low humidex. Therefore, humidex is appropriate as a predictor in a CVD early-warning system.
| S-EPMC10548730 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In light of climate change, health risks are expected to be exacerbated by more frequent high temperatures and reduced by less frequent cold extremes. To assess the impact of different climate change scenarios, it is necessary to describe the current effects of temperature on health. A time-stratified case-crossover design fitted with conditional quasi-Poisson regressions and distributed lag non-linear models was applied to estimate specific temperature-mortality associations in nine urban agglomerations in Belgium, and a random-effect meta-analysis was conducted to pool the estimates. Based on 307,859 all-cause natural deaths, the mortality risk associated to low temperature was 1.32 (95% CI: 1.21-1.44) and 1.21 (95% CI: 1.08-1.36) for high temperature relative to the minimum mortality temperature (23.1 °C). Both cold and heat were associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. We observed differences in risk by age category, and women were more vulnerable to heat than men. People living in the most built-up municipalities were at higher risk for heat. Air pollutants did not have a confounding effect. Evidence from this study helps to identify specific populations at risk and is important for current and future public health interventions and prevention strategies.
| S-EPMC8997565 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDifferent locations and study periods were used in the assessment of the relationships between heatwaves and mortality. However, little is known about the comparability and consistency of the previous effect estimates in the literature. This study assessed the heatwave-mortality relationship using different study periods in the three largest Australian cities (Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney).MethodsDaily data on climatic variables and mortality for the three cities were obtained from relevant government agencies between 1988 and 2011. A consistent definition of heatwaves was used for these cities. Poisson generalised additive model was fitted to assess the impact of heatwaves on mortality.ResultsNon-accidental and circulatory mortality significantly increased during heatwaves across the three cities even with different heatwave definitions and study periods. Using the summer data resulted in the largest increase in effect estimates compared to those using the warm season or the whole year data.ConclusionThe findings may have implications for developing standard approaches to evaluating the heatwave-mortality relationship and advancing heat health warning systems. It also provides an impetus to methodological advance for assessing climate change-related health consequences.
| S-EPMC4517756 | biostudies-literature