Predicting an optimal composite outcome variable for Huntington's disease clinical trials.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Sewell DK
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8132919 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundDevelopment of new therapies for Alzheimer's disease (AD) is increasingly focused on more mildly affected populations, and requires new assessment and outcome strategies. Patients in early stages of AD have mild cognitive decline and no, or limited, functional impairment. To respond to these assessment challenges, we developed a measurement approach based on established scale items that exhibited change in previous amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment (aMCI) trials.MethodsPartial least squares regression with a longitudinal clinical decline model identified items from commonly used clinical scales with the highest combined sensitivity to change over time in aMCI and weighted these items according to their relative contribution to detecting clinical progression in patients' early stages of AD. The resultant AD Composite Score (ADCOMS) was assessed for its ability to detect treatment effect in aMCI/prodromal AD (pAD) clinical trial populations.ResultsADCOMS consists of 4 Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-cognitive subscale items, 2 Mini-Mental State Examination items, and all 6 Clinical Dementia Rating-Sum of Boxes items. ADCOMS demonstrated improved sensitivity to clinical decline over individual scales in pAD, aMCI and in mild AD dementia. ADCOMS also detected treatment effects associated with the use of cholinesterase inhibitors in these populations. Improved sensitivity predicts smaller sample size requirements when ADCOMS is used in early AD trials.ConclusionsADCOMS is proposed as new standard outcome for pAD and mild AD dementia trials, and is progressing in a CAMD-sponsored qualification process for use in registration trials of pAD.
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Project description:In this edition of the Huntington's Disease Clinical Trials Corner we expand on the HD-DBS and on the TRIHEP3 trials, and we list all currently registered and ongoing clinical trials in Huntington's disease.
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Project description:In the third edition of the Huntington's Disease Clinical Trials Corner we list all currently registered and ongoing clinical trials, expand on the SIGNAL trial (NCT02481674), and cover the recently finished CREST-E trial (NCT00712426).
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Project description:In this edition of the Huntington's Disease Clinical Trials Corner, we expand on the GENERATION HD2 (tominersen) and on the Asklepios Biopharmaceutical/BrainVectis trial with AB-1001. We also comment on the recent findings from the PROOF-HD trial, and list all currently registered and ongoing clinical trials in Huntington's disease.
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Project description:Clinical trials of chronic, progressive conditions use rate of change on continuous measures as the primary outcome measure, with slowing of progression on the measure as evidence of clinical efficacy. For clinical trials with a single prespecified primary endpoint, it is important to choose an endpoint with the best signal-to-noise properties to optimize statistical power to detect a treatment effect. Composite endpoints composed of a linear weighted average of candidate outcome measures have also been proposed. Composites constructed as simple sums or averages of component tests, as well as composites constructed using weights derived from more sophisticated approaches, can be suboptimal, in some cases performing worse than individual outcome measures. We extend recent research on the construction of efficient linearly weighted composites by establishing the often overlooked connection between trial design and composite performance under linear mixed effects model assumptions and derive a formula for calculating composites that are optimal for longitudinal clinical trials of known, arbitrary design. Using data from a completed trial, we provide example calculations showing that the optimally weighted linear combination of scales can improve the efficiency of trials by almost 20% compared with the most efficient of the individual component scales. Additional simulations and analytical results demonstrate the potential losses in efficiency that can result from alternative published approaches to composite construction and explore the impact of weight estimation on composite performance.
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Project description:BackgroundHuntington's disease (HD) develops in individuals with extended cytosine-adenine-guanine (CAG) repeats within the huntingtin (HTT) gene, causing neurodegeneration and progressive motor and cognitive symptoms. The inclusion of mutant HTT carriers in whom overt symptoms are not yet fully manifest in therapeutic trials would enable the development of treatments that delay or halt the accumulation of significant disability.ObjectivesThe present analyses assess whether screening prediagnosis (preHD) individuals based on a normalized prognostic index (PIN) score would enable the selection of prodromal preHD subjects in whom longitudinal changes in established outcome measures might provide robust signals. It also compares the relative statistical effect size of longitudinal change for these measures.MethodsIndividual participant data from 2 studies were used to develop mixed effect linear models to assess longitudinal changes in clinical metrics for participants with preHD and PIN-stratified subcohorts. Relative effect sizes were calculated in 5 preHD studies and internally normalized to evaluate the strength and consistency of each metric across cohorts.ResultsLongitudinal modeling data demonstrate the amplification of effect sizes when preHD subcohorts were selected by PIN score thresholds of >0.0 and >0.4. These models and relative effect sizes across 5 studies consistently indicate that the Unified Huntington's Disease Rating Scale total motor score exhibits the greatest change in preHD.ConclusionsThese analyses suggest that the employment of PIN scores to homogenize and stratify preHD cohorts could improve the efficiency of current outcome measures, the most robust of which is the total motor score. © 2020 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.
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Project description:Stem cell treatments for neurodegenerative diseases are expected to reach clinical trials soon. Most of the approaches currently under development involve transplantation of immature progenitors that subsequently undergo phenotypic and functional maturation in vivo, and predicting the long term graft outcome already at the progenitor stage remains a challenge. Here, we took an unbiased approach to identify predictive markers expressed in dopamine neuron progenitors that correlate with graft outcome in an animal model of Parkinson's disease through gene expression analysis of >30 batches of grafted hESC-derived progenitors. We found that many of the commonly-used markers did not accurately predict in vivo subtype-specific maturation. Instead, we identified a specific set of markers associated with the caudal midbrain that correlate with high dopaminergic yield after transplantation in vivo. Using these markers, we developed a GMP differentiation protocol for highly efficient and reproducible production of transplantable dopamine progenitors from hESCs.
2017-01-01 | GSE86654 | GEO
Project description:Traditional niche theory predicts that when species compete for one limiting resource in simple ecological settings the more fit competitor should exclude the less fit competitor. Since the advent of neutral theory ecologists have increasingly become interested both in how the magnitude of fitness inequality between competitors and stochasticity may affect this prediction. We used numerical simulations to investigate the outcome of two-species resource competition along gradients of fitness inequality (inequality in R*) and initial population size in the presence of demographic stochasticity. We found that the deterministic prediction of more fit competitors excluding less fit competitors was often unobserved when fitness inequalities were low or stochasticity was strong, and unexpected outcomes such as dominance by the less fit competitor, long-term co-persistence of both competitors or the extinction of both competitors could be common. By examining the interaction between fitness inequality and stochasticity our results mark the range of parameter space in which the predictions of niche theory break down most severely, and suggest that questions about whether competitive dynamics are driven by neutral or niche processes may be locally contingent.
| S-EPMC4555862 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionClinical and MRI measurements can track disease progression in PSP, but many have not been extensively evaluated in multicenter clinical trials. We identified optimal measures to capture clinical decline and predict disease progression in multicenter PSP trials.MethodsLongitudinal clinical rating scales, neuropsychological test scores, and volumetric MRI data from an international, phase 2/3 clinical trial of davunetide for PSP (intent to treat population, n = 303) were used to identify measurements with largest effect size, strongest correlation with clinical change, and best ability to predict dropout or clinical decline over one year as measured by PSP Rating Scale (PSPRS).ResultsBaseline cognition as measured by Repeatable Battery for Assessing Neuropsychological Status (RBANS) was associated with attrition, but had only a small effect. PSPRS and Clinical Global Impression (CGI) had the largest effect size for measuring change. Annual change in CGI, RBANS, color trails, and MRI midbrain and ventricular volumes were most strongly correlated with annual PSPRS and had the largest effect sizes for detecting annual change. At baseline, shorter disease duration, more severe depression, and lower performance on RBANS and executive function tests were associated with faster worsening of the PSPRS in completers. With dropouts included, SEADL, RBANS, and executive function tests had significant effect on PSPRS trajectory of change.ConclusionBaseline cognitive status and mood influence the rate of disease progression in PSP. Multiple clinical, neuropsychological, and volumetric MRI measurements are sensitive to change over one year in PSP and appropriate for use in multicenter clinical trials.
| S-EPMC4914418 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesSurvival from acute respiratory distress syndrome is improving, and outcomes beyond mortality may be important for testing new treatments. The "ventilator-free days" score, is an established composite that equates ventilation on day 28 to death. A hierarchical outcome treating death as a worse than prolonged ventilation would enhance face validity, but performance characteristics and reporting of such an outcome are unknown. We therefore evaluated the performance of a novel hierarchical composite endpoint, the Alive and Ventilator Free score.DesignUsing data from four Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Network clinical trials, we compared Alive and Ventilator Free to the ventilator-free days score. Alive and Ventilator Free compares each patient with every other patient in a win-lose-tie for each comparison. Duration of mechanical ventilation is only compared if both patients survived. We evaluated power of Alive and Ventilator Free versus ventilator-free days score under various circumstances.SettingICUs within the Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Network.PatientsIndividuals enrolled in four Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Network trials.InterventionsNone for this analysis.Measurements and main resultsWithin the four trials (n = 2,410 patients), Alive and Ventilator Free and ventilator-free days score had similar power, with Alive and Ventilator Free slightly more powerful when a mortality difference was present, and ventilator-free days score slightly more powerful with a difference in duration of mechanical ventilation. Alive and Ventilator Free less often found in favor of treatments that increased mortality and increased days free of ventilation among survivors.ConclusionsA hierarchical composite endpoint, Alive and Ventilator Free, preserves statistical power while improving face validity. Alive and Ventilator Free is less prone to favor a treatment with discordant effects on survival and days free of ventilation. This general approach can support complex outcome hierarchies with multiple constituent outcomes. Approaches to interpretation of differences in Alive and Ventilator Free are also presented.
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