Project description:Health care workers are at high risk for contracting coronavirus disease 2019. However, little is known about the risk of transmission between coworkers. The objective of this study was to determine the risk of transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) between coworkers in a surgical environment. This was an observational study of 394 health care workers in a surgical environment who were exposed to 2 known SARS-CoV-2-positive coworkers. Standard infection precautions were in place at the time of the exposure. All 394 exposed workers initially underwent nasopharyngeal swab testing for SARS-CoV-2 using the polymerase chain reaction technique. Of the original group, 387 were tested again with the same technique 1 week later. Of 394 SARS-CoV-2-exposed health care workers initially tested, 1 was positive. No new positive cases were found on repeated testing of 387 participants 1 week later. The risk of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a health care unit with universal masking and appropriate hand hygiene is low. This finding should provide some reassurance to surgical practices as they reopen.
Project description:BackgroundCountries continue to debate the need for decontamination of cold-chain food packaging to reduce possible SARS-CoV-2 fomite transmission among workers. While laboratory-based studies demonstrate persistence of SARS-CoV-2 on surfaces, the likelihood of fomite-mediated transmission under real-life conditions is uncertain.MethodsUsing a quantitative risk assessment model, we simulated in a frozen food packaging facility 1) SARS-CoV-2 fomite-mediated infection risks following worker exposure to contaminated plastic packaging; and 2) reductions in these risks attributed to masking, handwashing, and vaccination.FindingsIn a representative facility with no specific interventions, SARS-CoV-2 infection risk to a susceptible worker from contact with contaminated packaging was 2·8 × 10 -3 per 1h-period (95%CI: 6·9 × 10 -6 , 2·4 × 10 -2 ). Implementation of standard infection control measures, handwashing and masks (9·4 × 10 -6 risk per 1h-period, 95%CI: 2·3 × 10 -8 , 8·1 × 10 -5 ), substantially reduced risk (99·7%). Vaccination of the susceptible worker (two doses Pfizer/Moderna, vaccine effectiveness: 86-99%) combined with handwashing and masking reduced risk to less than 1·0 × 10 -6 . Simulating increased infectiousness/transmissibility of new variants (2-, 10-fold viral shedding) among a fully vaccinated workforce, handwashing and masks continued to mitigate risk (2·0 × 10 -6 -1·1 × 10 -5 risk per 1h-period). Decontamination of packaging in addition to these interventions reduced infection risks to below the 1·0 × 10 -6 risk threshold.InterpretationFomite-mediated SARS-CoV-2 infection risks were very low under cold-chain conditions. Handwashing and masking provide significant protection to workers, especially when paired with vaccination.FundingU.S. Department of Agriculture.
Project description:A key consideration in the Covid-19 pandemic is the dominant modes of transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus. The objective of this review was to synthesise the evidence for the potential airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 via aerosols. Systematic literature searches were conducted in PubMed, Embase, Europe PMC and National Health Service UK evidence up to 27 July 2020. A protocol was published and Cochrane guidance for rapid review methodology was adhered to throughout. Twenty-eight studies were identified. Seven out of eight epidemiological studies suggest aerosol transmission may occur, with enclosed environments and poor ventilation noted as possible contextual factors. Ten of the 16 air sampling studies detected SARS-CoV-2 ribonucleic acid; however, only three of these studies attempted to culture the virus with one being successful in a limited number of samples. Two of four virological studies using artificially generated aerosols indicated that SARS-CoV-2 is viable in aerosols. The results of this review indicate there is inconclusive evidence regarding the viability and infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 in aerosols. Epidemiological studies suggest possible transmission, with contextual factors noted. Viral particles have been detected in air sampling studies with some evidence of clinical infectivity, and virological studies indicate these particles may represent live virus, adding further plausibility. However, there is uncertainty as to the nature and impact of aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and its relative contribution to the Covid-19 pandemic compared with other modes of transmission.
Project description:The peak in influenza incidence during wintertime in temperate regions represents a longstanding, unresolved scientific question. One hypothesis is that the efficacy of airborne transmission via aerosols is increased at lower humidities and temperatures, conditions that prevail in wintertime. Recent work with a guinea pig model by Lowen et al. indicated that humidity and temperature do modulate airborne influenza virus transmission, and several investigators have interpreted the observed humidity dependence in terms of airborne virus survivability. This interpretation, however, neglects two key observations: the effect of ambient temperature on the viral growth kinetics within the animals, and the strong influence of the background airflow on transmission. Here we provide a comprehensive theoretical framework for assessing the probability of disease transmission via expiratory aerosols between test animals in laboratory conditions. The spread of aerosols emitted from an infected animal is modeled using dispersion theory for a homogeneous turbulent airflow. The concentration and size distribution of the evaporating droplets in the resulting "Gaussian breath plume" are calculated as functions of position, humidity, and temperature. The overall transmission probability is modeled with a combination of the time-dependent viral concentration in the infected animal and the probability of droplet inhalation by the exposed animal downstream. We demonstrate that the breath plume model is broadly consistent with the results of Lowen et al., without invoking airborne virus survivability. The results also suggest that, at least for guinea pigs, variation in viral kinetics within the infected animals is the dominant factor explaining the increased transmission probability observed at lower temperatures.
Project description:The current severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has created a significant threat to global health. While respiratory aerosols or droplets are considered as the main route of human-to-human transmission, secretions expelled by infected individuals can also contaminate surfaces and objects, potentially creating the risk of fomite-based transmission. Consequently, frequently touched objects such as paper currency and coins have been suspected as potential transmission vehicle. To assess the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission by banknotes and coins, we examined the stability of SARS-CoV-2 and bovine coronavirus, as surrogate with lower biosafety restrictions, on these different means of payment and developed a touch transfer method to examine transfer efficiency from contaminated surfaces to fingertips. Although we observed prolonged virus stability, our results indicate that transmission of SARS-CoV-2 via contaminated coins and banknotes is unlikely and requires high viral loads and a timely order of specific events.
Project description:BackgroundEvidence for indoor airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is accumulating.ObjectivesWe assessed of the risk of illness due to airborne SARS-CoV-2 particles from breathing, speaking, singing, coughing, and sneezing in indoor environments.MethodsA risk assessment model, AirCoV2, for exposure to SARS-CoV-2 particles in aerosol droplets was developed. Previously published data on droplets expelled by breathing, speaking, singing, coughing, and sneezing by an infected person were used as inputs. Scenarios encompassed virus concentration, exposure time, and ventilation. Newly collected data of virus RNA copies in mucus from patients are presented.ResultsThe expelled volume of aerosols was highest for a sneeze, followed by a cough, singing, speaking, and breathing. After 20 min of exposure, at 107 RNA copies/mL in mucus, all mean illness risks were largely estimated to be below 0.001, except for the "high" sneeze scenario. At virus concentrations above 108 RNA copies/mL, and after 2 h of exposure, in the high and "low" sneeze scenarios, the high cough scenario and the singing scenario, risks exceeded 0.01 and may become very high, whereas the low coughing scenario, the high and low speaking scenarios and the breathing scenario remained below 0.1. After 2 h of exposure, singing became the second highest risk scenario. One air exchange per hour reduced risk of illness by about a factor of 2. Six air exchanges per hour reduced risks of illness by a factor of 8-13 for the sneeze and cough scenarios and by a factor of 4-9 for the other scenarios.DiscussionThe large variation in the volume of expelled aerosols is discussed. The model calculations indicated that SARS-CoV-2 transmission via aerosols outside of the 1.5-m social distancing norm can occur. Virus concentrations in aerosols and/or the amount of expelled aerosol droplets need to be high for substantial transmission via this route. AirCoV2 is made available as interactive computational tool. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP7886.
Project description:The presence of SARS-CoV-2 in untreated sewage has been confirmed in many countries but its incidence and infection risk in contaminated waters is poorly understood. The River Thames in the UK receives untreated sewage from 57 Combined Sewer Overflows (CSOs), with many discharging dozens of times per year. This study investigated if such discharges provide a pathway for environmental transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Samples of wastewater, surface water, and sediment collected close to six CSOs on the River Thames were assayed over eight months for SARS-CoV-2 RNA and infectious virus. Bivalves were also sampled as an indicator species of viral bioaccumulation. Sediment and water samples from the Danube and Sava rivers in Serbia, where raw sewage is also discharged in high volumes, were assayed as a positive control. No evidence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA or infectious virus was found in UK samples, in contrast to RNA positive samples from Serbia. Furthermore, this study shows that infectious SARS-CoV-2 inoculum is stable in Thames water and sediment for <3 days, while SARS-CoV-2 RNA is detectable for at least seven days. This indicates that dilution of wastewater likely limits environmental transmission, and that detection of viral RNA alone is not an indication of pathogen spillover.
Project description:The evolution of SARS-CoV-2 virulence, or lethality, threatens to exacerbate the burden of COVID-19 on society. How might COVID-19 vaccines alter selection for increased SARS-CoV-2 virulence? Framing current evidence surrounding SARS-CoV-2 biology and COVID-19 vaccines in the context of evolutionary theory indicates that prospects for virulence evolution remain uncertain. However, differential effects of vaccinal immunity on transmission and disease severity between respiratory compartments could select for increased virulence. To bound expectations for this outcome, we analyse an evo-epidemiological model. Synthesizing model predictions with vaccine efficacy data, we conclude that while vaccine-driven virulence remains a theoretical possibility, the risk is low if vaccines provide sustained robust protection against infection. Furthermore, we found that any increases in transmission concomitant with increases in virulence would be unlikely to threaten prospects for herd immunity in a highly immunized population. Given that virulence evolution would nevertheless impact unvaccinated individuals and populations with low vaccination rates, it is important to achieve high vaccination rates worldwide and ensure that vaccinal immunity provides robust protection against both infection and disease, potentially through the use of booster doses.