Effect of meteorological factors on Culex mosquitoes in Singapore: a time series analysis.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Seah A
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8149361 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundOver the past decades there have been outbreaks of mumps in many countries, even in populations that were vaccinated. Some studies suggest that the incidence of mumps is related to meteorological changes, but the results of these studies vary in different regions. To date there is no reported study on correlations between mumps incidence and meteorological parameters in Beijing, China.MethodsA time series analysis incorporating selected weather factors and the number of mumps cases from 1990 to 2012 in Beijing was performed. First, correlations between meteorological variables and the number of mumps cases were assessed. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model with explanatory variables (SARIMAX) was then constructed to predict mumps cases.ResultsMean temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, vapor pressure, and wind speed were significantly associated with mumps incidence. After constructing the SARIMAX model, mean temperature at lag 0 (β = 0.016, p < 0.05, 95% confidence interval 0.001 to 0.032) was positively associated with mumps incidence, while vapor pressure at lag 2 (β = -0.018, p < 0.05, 95% confidence interval -0.038 to -0.002) was negatively associated. SARIMAX (1, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)12 with temperature at lag 0 was the best predictive construct.ConclusionsThe incidence of mumps in Beijing from 1990 to 2012 was significantly correlated with meteorological variables. Combining meteorological variables, a predictive SARIMAX model that could be used to preemptively estimate the incidence of mumps in Beijing was established.
| S-EPMC6525345 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Mosquito-borne flaviviruses are emerging pathogens of an increasing global public health concern because of their rapid increase in geographical range and the impact of climate change. Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) and West Nile virus (WNV) are of concern because of the risk of reemergence and introduction by migratory birds. In Singapore, human WNV infection has never been reported and human JEV infection is rare. Four sentinel vector surveillance sites were established in Singapore to understand the potential risk posed by these viruses. Surveillance was carried out from August 2011 to December 2012 at Pulau Ubin, from March 2011 to March 2013 at an Avian Sanctuary (AS), from December 2010 from October 2012 at Murai Farmway, and from December 2010 to December 2013 at a nature reserve. The present study revealed active JEV transmission in Singapore through the detection of JEV genotype II in Culex tritaeniorhynchus collected from an Avian Sanctuary. Culex flavivirus (CxFV), similar to the Quang Binh virus isolated from Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in Vietnam and CxFV-LSFlaviV-A20-09 virus isolated in China, was also detected in Culex spp. (vishnui subgroup). No WNV was detected. This study demonstrates the important role that surveillance plays in public health and strongly suggests the circulation of JEV among wildlife in Singapore, despite the absence of reported human cases. A One Health approach involving surveillance, the collaboration between public health and wildlife managers, and control of mosquito populations remains the key measures in risk mitigation of JEV transmission in the enzootic cycle between birds and mosquitoes.
| S-EPMC7470584 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This study sought to investigate the relationship between meteorological factors and outpatient visits for herpes zoster. In this time-series analysis, we used data from two major hospitals in Hefei, collected between 2015 and 2019, to evaluate the impact of meteorological factors on the risk of herpes zoster. After controlling for confounders, we adopted a distributed lag nonlinear model to probe the relationship between meteorological factors and outpatient visits for herpes zoster. The analysis was stratified according to age (<40 years, ≥40 years) and sex (male, female). A total of 43,547 cases of herpes zoster were reported, and compared with the median value, a high temperature and high relative humidity had a significant risk effect on the incidence of herpes zoster. The maximum harmful effect of high temperature on herpes zoster occurred on the lag0 (RR: 1.027, 95% CI: 1.002-1.053) and further declined over the following days. The cumulative effect increased with the extension of lag days, and the cumulative RR was the largest on the sixth day of lag (RR1.031, 95% CI: 1.006-1.056) when the relative humidity was 85.7% (77.0% as the reference). The stratified analysis results reveal that females and the elderly (≥40 years) were more susceptible to temperature and relative humidity. This study shows that high-temperatures may lead to herpes zoster, indicating that those infected with varicella zoster virus need to take measures over the course of several days when not exposed to the best appropriate temperature conditions.
| S-EPMC9915272 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesInfluence of meteorological variables on the transmission of bacillary dysentery (BD) is under investigated topic and effective forecasting models as public health tool are lacking. This paper aimed to quantify the relationship between meteorological variables and BD cases in Beijing and to establish an effective forecasting model.MethodsA time series analysis was conducted in the Beijing area based upon monthly data on weather variables (i.e. temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, vapor pressure, and wind speed) and on the number of BD cases during the period 1970-2012. Autoregressive integrated moving average models with explanatory variables (ARIMAX) were built based on the data from 1970 to 2004. Prediction of monthly BD cases from 2005 to 2012 was made using the established models. The prediction accuracy was evaluated by the mean square error (MSE).ResultsFirstly, temperature with 2-month and 7-month lags and rainfall with 12-month lag were found positively correlated with the number of BD cases in Beijing. Secondly, ARIMAX model with covariates of temperature with 7-month lag (β = 0.021, 95% confidence interval(CI): 0.004-0.038) and rainfall with 12-month lag (β = 0.023, 95% CI: 0.009-0.037) displayed the highest prediction accuracy.ConclusionsThe ARIMAX model developed in this study showed an accurate goodness of fit and precise prediction accuracy in the short term, which would be beneficial for government departments to take early public health measures to prevent and control possible BD popularity.
| S-EPMC5552134 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The amplification of carboxylesterase structural genes followed by their overexpression is the most common mechanism of resistance to organophosphorus insecticides in Culex mosquitoes. Most resistant Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes have co-amplified estalpha2(1) and estbeta2(1) genes. Recently, Southern, DNA dot-blot analysis and phosphorimaging technology were used to quantify the est gene copy number in aphids and mosquitoes. Although more accurate than autoradiography, this method relies on probe hybridization, which can be variable. We have directly measured gene and mRNA copy number by using real-time quantitative PCRs in mosquitoes. The acquisition of fluorescence from incorporation of the double-strand-specific dye SYBR GreenI into a PCR product once per cycle is used to provide an absolute quantification of the initial template copy number. Thus it has been possible to show that estalpha2(1) and estbeta2(1) are co-amplified approx. 80-fold in the genome of the resistant PelRR strain of C. quinquefasciatus. The two genes, although co-amplified in a 1:1 ratio, are differentially transcribed: the estbeta2(1) gene from this amplicon has greater transcription than estalpha2(1) in all individual mosquito larvae tested, with an average ratio of 10:1. Purified esterases from mosquito homogenates were found in a ratio of 3:1, which, combined with the quantitative mRNA data, suggests the operation of both transcriptional and translational control mechanisms to regulate the expression of the amplified genes in C. quinquefasciatus insecticide-resistant mosquitoes.
| S-EPMC1220817 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundSingapore is an intermediate tuberculosis (TB) incidence country, with a recent rise in TB incidence from 2008, after a fall in incidence since 1998. This study identified population characteristics that were associated with the recent increase in TB cases, and built a predictive model of TB risk in Singapore.MethodsRetrospective time series analysis was used to study TB notification data collected from 1995 to 2011 from the Singapore Tuberculosis Elimination Program (STEP) registry. A predictive model was developed based on the data collected from 1995 to 2010 and validated using the data collected in 2011.ResultsThere was a significant difference in demographic characteristics between resident and non-resident TB cases. TB risk was higher in non-residents than in residents throughout the period. We found no significant association between demographic and macro-economic factors and annual incidence of TB with or without adjusting for the population-at-risk. Despite growing non-resident population, there was a significant decrease in the non-resident TB risk (p < 0.0001). However, there was no evidence of trend in the resident TB risk over this time period, though differences between different demographic groups were apparent with ethnic minorities experiencing higher incidence rates.ConclusionThe study found that despite an increasing size of non-resident population, TB risk among non-residents was decreasing at a rate of about 3% per year. There was an apparent seasonality in the TB reporting.
| S-EPMC4230736 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundGlobal temperatures are projected to rise by ?2?°C by the end of the century, with expected impacts on infectious disease incidence. Establishing the historic relationship between temperature and childhood diarrhea is important to inform future vulnerability under projected climate change scenarios.MethodsWe compiled a national dataset from Peruvian government data sources, including weekly diarrhea surveillance records, annual administered doses of rotavirus vaccination, annual piped water access estimates, and daily temperature estimates. We used generalized estimating equations to quantify the association between ambient temperature and childhood (<?5?years) weekly reported clinic visits for diarrhea from 2005 to 2015 in 194 of 195 Peruvian provinces. We estimated the combined effect of the mean daily high temperature lagged 1, 2, and 3 weeks, in the eras before (2005-2009) and after (2010-2015) widespread rotavirus vaccination in Peru and examined the influence of varying levels of piped water access.ResultsNationally, an increase of 1?°C in the temperature across the three prior weeks was associated with a 3.8% higher rate of childhood clinic visits for diarrhea [incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03-1.04]. Controlling for temperature, there was a significantly higher incidence rate of childhood diarrhea clinic visits during moderate/strong El Niño events (IRR: 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01-1.04) and during the dry season (IRR: 1.01, 95% CI: 1.00-1.03). Nationally, there was no evidence that the association between temperature and the childhood diarrhea rate changed between the pre- and post-rotavirus vaccine eras, or that higher levels of access to piped water mitigated the effects of temperature on the childhood diarrhea rate.ConclusionsHigher temperatures and intensifying El Niño events that may result from climate change could increase clinic visits for childhood diarrhea in Peru. Findings underscore the importance of considering climate in assessments of childhood diarrhea in Peru and globally, and can inform regional vulnerability assessments and mitigation planning efforts.
| S-EPMC7913169 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Air pollution exposure may increase the demand for emergency healthcare services, particularly in South-East Asia, where the burden of air-pollution-related health impacts is high. This article aims to investigate the association between air quality and emergency hospital admissions in Singapore. Quasi-Poisson regression was applied with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to assess the short-term associations between air quality variations and all-cause, emergency admissions from a major hospital in Singapore, between 2009 and 2017. Higher concentrations of SO2, PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and CO were positively associated with an increased risk of (i) all-cause, (ii) cardiovascular-related, and (iii) respiratory-related emergency admissions over 7 days. O3 concentration increases were associated with a non-linear decrease in emergency admissions. Females experienced a higher risk of emergency admissions associated with PM2.5, PM10, and CO exposure, and a lower risk of admissions with NO2 exposure, compared to males. The older adults (≥65 years) experienced a higher risk of emergency admissions associated with SO2 and O3 exposure compared to the non-elderly group. We found significant positive associations between respiratory disease- and cardiovascular disease-related emergency hospital admissions and ambient SO2, PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and CO concentrations. Age and gender were identified as effect modifiers of all-cause admissions.
| S-EPMC9603816 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Many blood-feeding arthropods are known vectors of viruses that are a source of unprecedented global health concern. Mosquitoes are an integral part of these arthropod vectors. Advancements in next-generation sequencing and bioinformatics has expanded our knowledge on the richness of viruses harbored by arthropods. In the present study, we applied a metagenomic approach to determine the intercontinental virome diversity of Culex quinquefasciatus and Culex tritaeniorhynchus in Kwale, Kenya and provinces of Hubei and Yunnan in China. Our results showed that viromes from the three locations were strikingly diverse and comprised 30 virus families specific to vertebrates, invertebrates, plants, and protozoa as well as unclassified group of viruses. Though sampled at different times, both Kwale and Hubei mosquito viromes were dominated by vertebrate viruses, in contrast to the Yunnan mosquito virome, which was dominated by insect-specific viruses. However, each virome was unique in terms of virus proportions partly influenced by type of ingested meals (blood, nectar, plant sap, environment substrates). The dominant vertebrate virus family in the Kwale virome was Papillomaviridae (57%) while in Hubei it was Herpesviridae (30%) and the Yunnan virome was dominated by an unclassified viruses group (27%). Given that insect-specific viruses occur naturally in their hosts, they should be the basis for defining the viromes. Hence, the dominant insect-specific viruses in Kwale, Hubei, and Yunnan were Baculoviridae, Nimaviridae and Iflaviridae, respectively. Our study is preliminary but contributes to growing and much needed knowledge, as mosquito viromes could be manipulated to prevent and control pathogenic arboviruses.
| S-EPMC5795443 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveExposure to pollutants during pregnancy has been related to adverse birth outcomes. LBW can give rise to lifelong impairments. Prematurity is the leading cause of LBW, yet few studies have attempted to analyse how environmental factors can influence LBW in infants who are not premature. This study therefore sought to analyse the influence of air pollution, noise levels and temperature on LBW in non-premature births in Madrid during the period 2001-2009.MethodsEcological time-series study to assess the impact of PM2.5, NO2 and O3 concentrations, noise levels, and temperatures on LBW among non-premature infants across the period 2001-2009. Our analysis extended to infants having birth weights of 1,500 g to 2,500 g (VLBW) and less than 1,500 g (ELBW). Environmental variables were lagged until 37 weeks with respect to the date of birth, and cross-correlation functions were used to identify explaining lags. Results were quantified using Poisson regression models.ResultsAcross the study period 298,705 births were registered in Madrid, 3,290 of which had LBW; of this latter total, 1,492 were non-premature. PM2.5 was the only pollutant to show an association with the three variables of LBW in non-premature births. This association occurred at around the third month of gestation for LBW and VLBW (LBW: lag 23 and VLBW: lag 25), and at around the eighth month of gestation for ELBW (lag 6). Leqd was linked to LBW at lag zero. The RR of PM2.5 on LBW was 1.01 (1.00 1.03). The RR of Leqd on LBW was 1.09 (0.99 1.19)(p<0.1).ConclusionsThe results obtained indicate that PM2.5 had influence on LBW. The adoption of measures aimed at reducing the number of vehicles would serve to lower pregnant women's exposure. In the case of noise should be limited the exposure to high levels during the final weeks of pregnancy.
| S-EPMC5082809 | biostudies-literature