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Development and Validation of a Nomogram to Predict the Individual Future Stroke Risk for Adult Patients With Moyamoya Disease: A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study in China.

ABSTRACT: Background: Studies exploring the predictive performance of major risk factors associated with future stroke events are insufficient, and a useful tool to predict individual risk is not available. Therefore, personalized advice for preventing future stroke in patients with moyamoya disease (MMD) cannot provide evidence-based recommendations. The aim of this study was to develop a novel nomogram with reliable validity to predict the individual risk of future stroke for adult MMD patients. Methods: This study included 450 patients from seven medical centers between January 2013 and December 2018. Follow-ups were performed via clinical visits and/or telephone interviews from initial discharge to December 2019. The cohort was randomly assigned to a training set (2/3, n = 300) for nomogram development and a test set (1/3, n = 150) for external validation. The Kaplan-Meier analyses and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were applied to assess the clinical benefits of this nomogram. Results: Diabetes mellitus, a family history of MMD, a past history of stroke or transient ischemic attack, clinical manifestation, and treatment were identified as major risk factors via the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method. A nomogram including these predictors was established via a multivariate Cox regression model, which displayed excellent discrimination [Harrell's concordance index (C-index), 0.85; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.75-0.96] and calibration. In the external validation, the nomogram was found to have good discrimination (C-index, 0.81; 95% CI: 0.68-0.94) and calibration. In the subgroup analysis, this predictive nomogram also showed great performance in both ischemic-type (C-index, 0.90; 95% CI: 0.77-1.00) and hemorrhagic-type MMD (C-index, 0.72; 95% CI: 0.61-0.83). Furthermore, the nomogram was shown to have potential in clinical practice through Kaplan-Meier analyses and ROC curves. Conclusions: We developed a novel nomogram incorporating several clinical characteristics with relatively good accuracy, which may have considerable potential for evaluating individual future stroke risk and providing useful management recommendations for adult patients with MMD in clinical practice.

SUBMITTER: Ye F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8155507 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundPatients diagnosed with small cell lung cancer (SCLC) typically experience a poor prognosis, and it is essential to predict overall survival (OS) and stratify patients based on distinct prognostic risks.MethodsTotally 2309 SCLC patients from the hospitals in 15 cities of Shandong from 2010 - 2014 were included in this multicenter, population-based retrospective study. The data of SCLC patients during 2010-2013 and in 2014 SCLC were used for model development and validation, respectively. OS served as the primary outcome. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression were applied to identify the independent prognostic factors of SCLC, and a prognostic model was developed based on these factors. The discrimination and calibration of this model were assessed by the time-dependent C-index, time-dependent receiver operator characteristic curves (ROC), and calibration curves. Additionally, Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) curves, Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI), and Integrated Discriminant Improvement (IDI) were used to assess the enhanced clinical utility and predictive accuracy of the model compared to TNM staging systems.ResultsMultivariate analysis showed that region (Southern/Eastern, hazard ratio [HR] = 1.305 [1.046 - 1.629]; Western/Eastern, HR = 0.727 [0.617 - 0.856]; Northern/Eastern, HR = 0.927 [0.800 - 1.074]), sex (female/male, HR = 0.838 [0.737 - 0.952]), age (46-60/≤45, HR = 1.401 [1.104 - 1.778]; 61-75/≤45, HR = 1.500 [1.182 - 1.902]; >75/≤45, HR = 1.869 [1.382 - 2.523]), TNM stage (II/I, HR = 1.119[0.800 - 1.565]; III/I, HR = 1.478 [1.100 - 1.985]; IV/I, HR = 1.986 [1.477 - 2.670], surgery (yes/no, HR = 0.677 [0.521 - 0.881]), chemotherapy (yes/no, HR = 0.708 [0.616 - 0.813]), and radiotherapy (yes/no, HR = 0.802 [0.702 - 0.917]) were independent prognostic factors of SCLC patients and were included in the nomogram. The time-dependent AUCs of this model in the training set were 0.699, 0.683, and 0.683 for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS, and 0.698, 0.698, and 0.639 in the validation set, respectively. The predicted calibration curves aligned with the ideal curves, and the DCA curves, the IDI, and the NRI collectively demonstrated that the prognostic model had a superior net benefit than the TNM staging system.ConclusionThe nomogram using SCLC patients in Shandong surpassed the TNM staging system in survival prediction accuracy and enabled the stratification of patients with distinct prognostic risks based on nomogram scores.

Project description:This study aimed to develop a predictive tool for surgical site infections (SSI) following hysterectomy and propose strategies for their prevention and control. We conducted a retrospective analysis at a tertiary maternity and child specialist hospital in Zhejiang Province, focusing on patients who underwent hysterectomy between January 2018 and December 2023 for gynecological malignancies or benign reproductive system diseases resistant to medical treatment. Risk factors associated with surgical site infections (SSI) following hysterectomy were identified using LASSO regression analysis on data from 2018 to 2022 as the training set. Independent risk factors were then used to develop a nomogram. The model was validated using data from 2023 as the validation set. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), while calibration curves were employed to gauge model accuracy. Furthermore, clinical utility was evaluated through clinical decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve analysis (CIC), providing insights into the practical application of the nomogram. Multivariate analysis identified six independent risk factors associated with SSI development after hysterectomy: BMI ≥ 24 kg/m2 (OR: 2.58; 95% CI 1.14-6.19; P < 0.05), hypoproteinaemia diagnosis (OR: 4.99; 95% CI 1.95-13.02; P < 0.05), postoperative antibiotic use for ≥ 3 days (OR: 49.53; 95% CI 9.73-91.01; P < 0.05), history of previous abdominal surgery (OR: 7.46; 95% CI 2.93-20.01; P < 0.05), hospital stay ≥ 10 days (OR: 9.67; 95% CI 2.06-76.46; P < 0.05), and malignant pathological type (OR: 4.62; 95% CI 1.78-12.76; P < 0.05). A nomogram model was constructed using these variables. ROC and calibration curves demonstrated good model calibration and discrimination in both training and validation sets. Analysis with DCA and CIC confirmed the clinical utility of the nomogram. Personalized nomogram mapping for SSI after hysterectomy enables early identification of high-risk patients, facilitating timely interventions to reduce SSI incidence post-surgery.

Project description:Background: The existing prediction models lack the generalized applicability for chronic heart failure (CHF) readmission. We aimed to develop and validate a widely applicable nomogram for the prediction of 180-day readmission to the patients. Methods: We prospectively enrolled 2,980 consecutive patients with CHF from two hospitals. A nomogram was created to predict 180-day readmission based on the selected variables. The patients were divided into three datasets for development, internal validation, and external validation (mean age: 74.2 ± 14.1, 73.8 ± 14.2, and 71.0 ± 11.7 years, respectively; sex: 50.2, 48.8, and 55.2% male, respectively). At baseline, 102 variables were submitted to the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) regression algorithm for variable selection. The selected variables were processed by the multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression modeling combined with univariate analysis and stepwise regression. The model was evaluated by the concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot. Finally, the nomogram was provided to visualize the results. The improvement in the regression model was calculated by the net reclassification index (NRI) (with tenfold cross-validation and 200 bootstraps). Results: Among the selected 2,980 patients, 1,696 (56.9%) were readmitted within 180 days, and 1,502 (50.4%) were men. A nomogram was established by the results of Lasso regression, univariate analysis, stepwise regression and multivariate Cox regression, as well as variables with clinical significance. The values of the C-index were 0.75 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.72-0.79], 0.75 [95% CI: 0.69-0.81], and 0.73 [95% CI: 0.64-0.83] for the development, internal validation, and external validation datasets, respectively. Calibration plots were provided for both the internal and external validation sets. Five variables including history of acute heart failure, emergency department visit, age, blood urea nitrogen level, and beta blocker usage were considered in the final prediction model. When adding variables involving hospital discharge way, alcohol taken and left bundle branch block, the calculated values of NRI demonstrated no significant improvements. Conclusions: A nomogram for the prediction of 180-day readmission of patients with CHF was developed and validated based on five variables. The proposed methodology can improve the accurate prediction of patient readmission and have the wide applications for CHF.

Project description:BackgroundCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a public health emergency of global concern. We aimed to explore the risk factors of 14-day and 28-day mortality and develop a model for predicting 14-day and 28-day survival probability among adult hospitalized patients with COVID-19.MethodsIn this multicenter, retrospective, cohort study, we examined 828 hospitalized patients with confirmed COVID-19 hospitalized in Wuhan Union Hospital and Central Hospital of Wuhan between January 12 and February 9, 2020. Among the 828 patients, 516 and 186 consecutive patients admitted in Wuhan Union Hospital were enrolled in the training cohort and the validation cohort, respectively. A total of 126 patients hospitalized in Central Hospital of Wuhan were enrolled in a second external validation cohort. Demographic, clinical, radiographic, and laboratory measures; treatment; proximate causes of death; and 14-day and 28-day mortality are described. Patients' data were collected by reviewing the medical records, and their 14-day and 28-day outcomes were followed up.ResultsOf the 828 patients, 146 deaths were recorded until May 18, 2020. In the training set, multivariate Cox regression indicated that older age, lactate dehydrogenase level over 360 U/L, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio higher than 8.0, and direct bilirubin higher than 5.0 μmol/L were independent predictors of 28-day mortality. Nomogram scoring systems for predicting the 14-day and 28-day survival probability of patients with COVID-19 were developed and exhibited strong discrimination and calibration power in the two external validation cohorts (C-index, 0.878 and 0.839).ConclusionOlder age, high lactate dehydrogenase level, evaluated neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, and high direct bilirubin level were independent predictors of 28-day mortality in adult hospitalized patients with confirmed COVID-19. The nomogram system based on the four factors revealed good discrimination and calibration, suggesting good clinical utility.

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Development and Validation of a Nomogram to Predict the Individual Future Stroke Risk for Adult Patients With Moyamoya Disease: A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study in China.

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