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Data-Driven and Machine-Learning Methods to Project Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic Trend in Eastern Mediterranean.

ABSTRACT: Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has become a major public health crisis worldwide, and the Eastern Mediterranean is one of the most affected areas. Materials and Methods: We use a data-driven approach to assess the characteristics, situation, prevalence, and current intervention actions of the COVID-19 pandemic. We establish a spatial model of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic to project the trend and time distribution of the total confirmed cases and growth rate of daily confirmed cases based on the current intervention actions. Results: The results show that the number of daily confirmed cases, number of active cases, or growth rate of daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 are exhibiting a significant downward trend in Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia under the current interventions, although the total number of confirmed cases and deaths is still increasing. However, it is predicted that the number of total confirmed cases and active cases in Iran and Iraq may continue to increase. Conclusion: The COVID-19 pandemic in Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia will be largely contained if interventions are maintained or tightened. The future is not optimistic, and the intervention response must be further strengthened in Iran and Iraq. The aim of this study is to contribute to the prevention and control of the COVID-19 pandemic.

SUBMITTER: Huang W

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8158576 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ObjectiveTo report methodology and first-year results of a new educational project called Televascular Games," which took place during coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.MethodsComplex aneurysmal aortic disease was discussed during a 2-hour competition webinar, according to three modalities. (1) Planning case competition (PCC): Two to four preoperative computed tomography angiography (CTA) scans of an already performed selected case were submitted for the competition. CTA scans were uploaded anonymously, without any reference to the center or the surgeon who performed the case. The competitor had to prepare a presentation of how he or she would have diagnosed, sized, planned, treated, and followed up the case, of the medical therapy and of the bail-out maneuvers. (2) Challenging case competition (CCC): The competitor elaborates a presentation of an already treated case concerning an aortic topic and discusses sizing, planning, treatment, possible bail-out maneuvers and obtained results. For the CCC and PCC, the competitors with the best score were preselected to present and discuss their plan during the webinars. (3) Quiz competition: Two to six CTA scans of already performed selected aortic cases were submitted for the competition. A quiz with multiple choice questions was answered by the competitors. The top four competitors were selected for the webinars and then they discussed the cases during the webinar. Finally, at the end of the case discussion, the effective case resolution and follow-up were shown. A final winner was voted via televoting, based on six preestablished criteria. The project was endorsed by different national and international societies.ResultsBetween October 2020 and December 2021, there were 12 Italian and 1 international webinars with 1695 participants overall (mean, 130; range, 86-177). Competitors were 54 years of age (mean, 27 years; range, 22-38 years). Two editions were CCCs, two quiz competitions, and nine PCCs. The reliability of the interobserver sizing of competitors was κ = 0.43 and κ = 0.62 for the proximal and distal sealing measurements respectively and very good (κ = 0.88-0.95) in the evaluation of orientation of the vessels, presence of angulations, calcifications, and thrombus. The sizing discrepancy resulted in a significant variability of the planning (κ = 0.45). The project ranked 9.6 on a 10-point rating scale by all the participants and competitors.ConclusionsThe formula of gaming and collegial discussion of aortic cases herein reported has proved valid and attractive during coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic period. The variability of the results on sizing and planning suggested to confer with a second opinion, especially for less experienced surgeons.

Project description:The current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia pandemic, caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is spreading globally at an accelerated rate, with a basic reproduction number (R0) of 2-2.5, indicating that 2-3 persons will be infected from an index patient. A serious public health emergency, it is particularly deadly in vulnerable populations and communities in which healthcare providers are insufficiently prepared to manage the infection. As of March 16, 2020, there are more than 180,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide, with more than 7000 related deaths. The SARS-CoV-2 virus has been isolated from asymptomatic individuals, and affected patients continue to be infectious 2 weeks after cessation of symptoms. The substantial morbidity and socioeconomic impact have necessitated drastic measures across all continents, including nationwide lockdowns and border closures. Pregnant women and their fetuses represent a high-risk population during infectious disease outbreaks. To date, the outcomes of 55 pregnant women infected with COVID-19 and 46 neonates have been reported in the literature, with no definite evidence of vertical transmission. Physiological and mechanical changes in pregnancy increase susceptibility to infections in general, particularly when the cardiorespiratory system is affected, and encourage rapid progression to respiratory failure in the gravida. Furthermore, the pregnancy bias toward T-helper 2 (Th2) system dominance, which protects the fetus, leaves the mother vulnerable to viral infections, which are more effectively contained by the Th1 system. These unique challenges mandate an integrated approach to pregnancies affected by SARS-CoV-2. Here we present a review of COVID-19 in pregnancy, bringing together the various factors integral to the understanding of pathophysiology and susceptibility, diagnostic challenges with real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assays, therapeutic controversies, intrauterine transmission, and maternal-fetal complications. We discuss the latest options in antiviral therapy and vaccine development, including the novel use of chloroquine in the management of COVID-19. Fetal surveillance, in view of the predisposition to growth restriction and special considerations during labor and delivery, is addressed. In addition, we focus on keeping frontline obstetric care providers safe while continuing to provide essential services. Our clinical service model is built around the principles of workplace segregation, responsible social distancing, containment of cross-infection to healthcare providers, judicious use of personal protective equipment, and telemedicine. Our aim is to share a framework that can be adopted by tertiary maternity units managing pregnant women in the flux of a pandemic while maintaining the safety of the patient and healthcare provider at its core.

Project description:BACKGROUND:The current ongoing pandemic outbreak of COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) has globally affected 213 countries and territories with more than 2.5 million confirmed cases and thousands of casualties. The unpredictable and uncertain COVID-19 outbreak has the potential of adversely affecting the psychological health on individual and community level. Currently all efforts are focused on the understanding of epidemiology, clinical features, mode of transmission, counteract the spread of the virus, and challenges of global health, while crucially significant mental health has been overlooked in this endeavor. METHOD:This review is to evaluate past outbreaks to understand the extent of adverse effects on psychological health, psychological crisis intervention, and mental health management plans. Published previous and current articles on PubMed, EMBASE, Google Scholar, and Elsevier about psychological impact of infectious diseases outbreaks and COVID-19 has been considered and reviewed. COMMENTS:COVID-19 is leading to intense psychosocial issues and comprising mental health marking a secondary health concern all around the world. Globally implementing preventive and controlling measures, and cultivating coping and resilience are challenging factors; modified lifestyle (lockdown curfew, self-isolation, social distancing and quarantine); conspiracy theories, misinformation and disinformation about the origin, scale, signs, symptoms, transmission, prevention and treatment; global socioeconomic crisis; travel restrictions; workplace hazard control; postponement and cancellation of religious, sports, cultural and entertainment events; panic buying and hoarding; incidents of racism, xenophobia, discrimination, stigma, psychological pressure of productivity, marginalization and violence; overwhelmed medical centers and health organizations, and general impact on education, politics, socioeconomic, culture, environment and climate - are some of the risk factors to aggravate further problems.

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Data-Driven and Machine-Learning Methods to Project Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic Trend in Eastern Mediterranean.

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