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Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming.

ABSTRACT: Ocean warming and acidification threaten the future growth of coral reefs. This is because the calcifying coral reef taxa that construct the calcium carbonate frameworks and cement the reef together are highly sensitive to ocean warming and acidification. However, the global-scale effects of ocean warming and acidification on rates of coral reef net carbonate production remain poorly constrained despite a wealth of studies assessing their effects on the calcification of individual organisms. Here, we present global estimates of projected future changes in coral reef net carbonate production under ocean warming and acidification. We apply a meta-analysis of responses of coral reef taxa calcification and bioerosion rates to predicted changes in coral cover driven by climate change to estimate the net carbonate production rates of 183 reefs worldwide by 2050 and 2100. We forecast mean global reef net carbonate production under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 will decline by 76, 149, and 156%, respectively, by 2100. While 63% of reefs are projected to continue to accrete by 2100 under RCP2.6, 94% will be eroding by 2050 under RCP8.5, and no reefs will continue to accrete at rates matching projected sea level rise under RCP4.5 or 8.5 by 2100. Projected reduced coral cover due to bleaching events predominately drives these declines rather than the direct physiological impacts of ocean warming and acidification on calcification or bioerosion. Presently degraded reefs were also more sensitive in our analysis. These findings highlight the low likelihood that the world's coral reefs will maintain their functional roles without near-term stabilization of atmospheric CO₂ emissions.

SUBMITTER: Cornwall CE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8166140 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world's tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches (Maximum Entropy and Boosted Regression Trees) with two levels of complexity (one a simplified and reduced environmental variable version of the other). Our models project a marked temperature-driven decline in habitat suitability for many of the most significant and bio-diverse tropical coral regions, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific. This is accompanied by a temperature-driven poleward range expansion of favorable conditions accelerating up to 40-70 km per decade by 2070. We find that ocean acidification is less influential for determining future habitat suitability than warming, and its deleterious effects are centered evenly in both hemispheres between 5° and 20° latitude. Contrary to expectations, the combined impact of ocean surface temperature rise and acidification leads to little, if any, degradation in future habitat suitability across much of the Atlantic and areas currently considered 'marginal' for tropical corals, such as the eastern Equatorial Pacific. These results are consistent with fossil evidence of range expansions during past warm periods. In addition, the simplified models are particularly sensitive to short-term temperature variations and their projections correlate well with reported locations of bleaching events. Our approach offers new insights into the relative impact of two global environmental pressures associated with rising atmospheric CO2 on potential future habitats, but greater understanding of past and current controls on coral reef ecosystems is essential to their conservation and management under a changing climate.

Project description:BackgroundMicrobes play vital roles across coral reefs both in the environment and inside and upon macrobes (holobionts), where they support critical functions such as nutrition and immune system modulation. These roles highlight the potential ecosystem-level importance of microbes, yet most knowledge of microbial functions on reefs is derived from a small set of holobionts such as corals and sponges. Declining seawater pH - an important global coral reef stressor - can cause ecosystem-level change on coral reefs, providing an opportunity to study the role of microbes at this scale. We use an in situ experimental approach to test the hypothesis that under such ocean acidification (OA), known shifts among macrobe trophic and functional groups may drive a general ecosystem-level response extending across macrobes and microbes, leading to reduced distinctness between the benthic holobiont community microbiome and the environmental microbiome.ResultsWe test this hypothesis using genetic and chemical data from benthic coral reef community holobionts sampled across a pH gradient from CO2 seeps in Papua New Guinea. We find support for our hypothesis; under OA, the microbiome and metabolome of the benthic holobiont community become less compositionally distinct from the sediment microbiome and metabolome, suggesting that benthic macrobe communities are colonised by environmental microbes to a higher degree under OA conditions. We also find a simplification and homogenisation of the benthic photosynthetic community, and an increased abundance of fleshy macroalgae, consistent with previously observed reef microbialisation.ConclusionsWe demonstrate a novel structural shift in coral reefs involving macrobes and microbes: that the microbiome of the benthic holobiont community becomes less distinct from the sediment microbiome under OA. Our findings suggest that microbialisation and the disruption of macrobe trophic networks are interwoven general responses to environmental stress, pointing towards a universal, undesirable, and measurable form of ecosystem changed. Video Abstract.

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Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming.

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