Successful contact tracing systems for COVID-19 rely on effective quarantine and isolation.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: James A
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8174731 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:With the COVID-19 vaccination widely implemented in most countries, propelled by the need to revive the tourism economy, there is a growing prospect for relieving the social distancing regulation and reopening borders in tourism-oriented countries and regions. This need incentivizes stakeholders to develop border control strategies that fully evaluate health risks if mandatory quarantines are lifted. In this study, we have employed a computational approach to investigate the contact tracing integrated policy in different border-reopening scenarios in Hong Kong, China. Explicitly, by reconstructing the COVID-19 transmission from historical data, specific scenarios with joint effects of digital contact tracing and other concurrent measures (i.e., controlling arrival population and community nonpharmacological interventions) are applied to forecast the future development of the pandemic. Built on a modified SEIR epidemic model with a 30% vaccination coverage, the results suggest that scenarios with digital contact tracing and quick isolation intervention can reduce the infectious population by 92.11% compared to those without contact tracing. By further restricting the inbound population with a 10,000 daily quota and applying moderate-to-strong community nonpharmacological interventions (NPIs), the average daily confirmed cases in the forecast period of 60 days can be well controlled at around 9 per day (95% CI: 7-12). Two main policy recommendations are drawn from the study. First, digital contact tracing would be an effective countermeasure for reducing local virus spread, especially when it is applied along with a moderate level of vaccination coverage. Second, implementing a daily quota on inbound travelers and restrictive community NPIs would further keep the local infection under control. This study offers scientific evidence and prospective guidance for developing and instituting plans to lift mandatory border control policies in preparing for the global economic recovery.
| S-EPMC8303901 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Contact tracing is commonly recommended to control outbreaks of COVID-19, but its effectiveness is unclear. Following PRISMA guidelines, we searched four databases using a range of terms related to contact tracing effectiveness for COVID-19. We found 343 papers; 32 were included. All were observational or modelling studies. Observational studies (n = 14) provided consistent, very-low certainty evidence that contact tracing (alone or in combination with other interventions) was associated with better control of COVID-19 (e.g. in Hong Kong, only 1084 cases and four deaths were recorded in the first 4.5 months of the pandemic). Modelling studies (n = 18) provided consistent, high-certainty evidence that under assumptions of prompt and thorough tracing with effective quarantines, contact tracing could stop the spread of COVID-19 (e.g. by reducing the reproduction number from 2.2 to 0.57). A cautious interpretation indicates that to stop the spread of COVID-19, public health practitioners have 2-3 days from the time a new case develops symptoms to isolate the case and quarantine at least 80% of its contacts.
| S-EPMC9997056 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe importation of SARS-CoV-2 through air travel poses substantial risks to generate new COVID-19 outbreaks. Timely contact tracing is particularly crucial to limit onwards transmission in settings without established community transmission.MethodsWe conducted an in-depth analysis of the response to a big flight-associated COVID-19 outbreak in Vietnam in March 2020 that involved contact tracing, systematic testing and strict quarantine up to third generation contacts.Results183 primary contacts from the flight as well as 1000 secondary and 311 third generation contacts were traced, tested, and quarantined across 15 provinces across Vietnam. The protracted confirmation of the index case at 3 days and 19 h after arrival resulted in isolation/quarantine delays of 6.8 days (IQR 6.3-6.8) and 5.8 days (IQR 5.8-7.0) for primary and secondary cases, respectively, which generated 84.0 and 26.4 person-days of community exposure from primary and secondary cases, respectively. Nevertheless, only 5 secondary cases occurred.ConclusionsA large flight-related COVID-19 cluster was successfully contained through timely, systematic and comprehensive public health responses despite delayed index case identification. Multiagency collaboration and pre-established mechanisms are crucial for low and middle income countries like Vietnam to limit community transmission after COVID-19 importation through air travel.
| S-EPMC8149171 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Contact tracing is currently one of the most effective measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to identify persons that would otherwise not be known or remembered and to keep the time delay when reporting an infection and when contacting people as short as possible, digital contact tracing using smartphones seems to be a reasonable measure additional to manual contact tracing. Although first modelling studies predicted a positive effect in terms of prompt contact tracing, no empirically reliable data are as yet available, neither on the population-wide benefit nor on the potential risks of contact tracing apps. Risk-benefit assessment of such an app includes investigating whether such an app fulfils its purpose, as also research on the effectiveness, risks and side effects, and implementation processes (e.?g. planning and inclusion of different participants). The aim of this article was to give an overview of possible public health benefits as well as technical, social, legal and ethical aspects of a contact-tracing app in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, conditions for the widest possible use of the app are presented.
| S-EPMC7536383 | biostudies-literature
Project description:While severe social-distancing measures have proven effective in slowing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, second-wave scenarios are likely to emerge as restrictions are lifted. Here we integrate anonymized, geolocalized mobility data with census and demographic data to build a detailed agent-based model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in the Boston metropolitan area. We find that a period of strict social distancing followed by a robust level of testing, contact-tracing and household quarantine could keep the disease within the capacity of the healthcare system while enabling the reopening of economic activities. Our results show that a response system based on enhanced testing and contact tracing can have a major role in relaxing social-distancing interventions in the absence of herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2.
| S-EPMC7641501 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The COVID-19 epidemic can probably be ended and normal life restored, perhaps quite quickly, by weekly SARS-CoV-2 RNA testing together with household quarantine and systematic contact tracing. Isolated outbreaks could then be contained by contact tracing, supplemented if necessary by temporary local reintroduction of population testing or lockdown. Leading public health experts have recommended that this should be tried in a demonstration project in which a medium-sized city introduces weekly testing and lifts lockdown completely. The idea was not considered by the groups whose predictions have guided UK policy, so we have examined the statistical case for such a study. The combination of regular testing with strict household quarantine, which was not analysed in their models, has remarkable power to reduce transmission to the community from other household members as well as providing earlier diagnosis and facilitating rapid contact tracing.
| S-EPMC7353981 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We sought to assess the proportion of elicited close contacts diagnosed with coronavirus disease 2019 at the start of and before exiting quarantine in San Francisco. From June 8 to August 31, 6946 contacts were identified: 3008 (46.3%) were tested, 940 (13.5%) tested positive, and 90% tested positive in the first 9 days of quarantine.
| S-EPMC8083597 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesWe aim to identify the factors associated with support and compliance with general quarantine and with the acceptability and potential use of a contact-tracing mobile phone application among French respondents.Study designWe conducted a cross-sectional study between April 16th and May 7th 2020 using online questionnaires.MethodsThe sample was reweighted to be representative of the French population by age and sex, region and education level. Ordered logistic, logistic and negative binomial regressions were used to estimate the factors associated with quarantine support, with the opinion on quarantine extension, with the number and type of trips outside the quarantine home and with the acceptability and potential use of a contact-tracing application.ResultsAfter reweighting, full data for regression analyses were available for 1849 respondents. Attitudes and opinions regarding quarantine are correlated with the perceived COVID-19 threat, the perceived benefits of quarantine, trust in the government, well-being during quarantine and risk preferences. Trust in the government, perceived individual health consequences in case of COVID-19 infection and time preferences are associated with the willingness to use a contact-tracing application.ConclusionsOur analysis indicates that prevention campaigns that stress the individual risk in case of infection or the benefits of quarantine could foster compliance to quarantine protocols. Remote psychological support might also promote quarantine adherence among individuals most distressed by the quarantine. Moreover, public communications should focus on restoring trust among the population as trust is strongly correlated with the willingness to use a contact-tracing application.
| S-EPMC7550094 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC8220265 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Objective Contact tracing is one of the key public health response actions to control the outbreak of a novel virus. This paper describes the preparation process, activation and operational experience for contact tracing of individuals in response to confirmed COVID-19 cases in Wales. Study design A descriptive approach has been adopted and lessons learned from our initial public health response to COVID-19 will be used to develop a new operational model for contact tracing in Wales. Methods As part of preparations for the response in Wales, Public Health Wales formed a Contact Tracing Cell (CTC) ready to be mobilised in the event of a confirmed case. Results Trial activation of the CTC during the preparation period helped to resolve some issues before ‘real’ activation. A highly flexible approach was needed due to the constant changes to the guidance that required rapid understanding, updates to pathways and clear communication to contact tracers. Conclusions Our experience and recommendations may benefit future efforts to control the spread of the virus in Wales and elsewhere, particularly in supporting COVID-19 outbreaks in enclosed settings such as care homes or in geographically localised areas. Learning from the initial public health response to COVID-19 will guide the delivery and implementation of a new contact tracing model as we move to a later stage of the pandemic when containment measures become feasible in localised outbreaks. This may include scaling-up the CTC to mobilise contact tracers to local teams and the potential use of digital technologies to support the next operational model of the CTC in Wales. Highlights • Contact tracing is one of the key public health response actions to control the outbreak of a novel virus.• For a CTC to be effective, identification and training of adequate numbers of staff needs to be done as early as possible.• A highly flexible approach was needed due to the logistical complexities of dealing with constant changes to the guidelines.• The mobilisation of non-health protection staff freed up health protection teams to deal with more complex issues.• Learning is needed to enhance future contact tracing activities when containment becomes feasible in localised outbreaks.
| S-EPMC7425711 | biostudies-literature