Dataset Information

Successful contact tracing systems for COVID-19 rely on effective quarantine and isolation.

ABSTRACT: Models of contact tracing often over-simplify the effects of quarantine and isolation on disease transmission. We develop a model that allows us to investigate the importance of these factors in reducing the effective reproduction number. We show that the reduction in onward transmission during quarantine and isolation has a bigger effect than tracing coverage on the reproduction number. We also show that intuitively reasonable contact tracing performance indicators, such as the proportion of contacts quarantined before symptom onset, are often not well correlated with the reproduction number. We conclude that provision of support systems to enable people to quarantine and isolate effectively is crucial to the success of contact tracing.

SUBMITTER: James A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8174731 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Successful contact tracing systems for COVID-19 rely on effective quarantine and isolation.

James A A Plank M J MJ Hendy S S Binny R R Lustig A A Steyn N N Nesdale A A Verrall A A

PloS one 20210603 6

Models of contact tracing often over-simplify the effects of quarantine and isolation on disease transmission. We develop a model that allows us to investigate the importance of these factors in reducing the effective reproduction number. We show that the reduction in onward transmission during quarantine and isolation has a bigger effect than tracing coverage on the reproduction number. We also show that intuitively reasonable contact tracing performance indicators, such as the proportion of co ...[more]

PMID: 34081709

Similar Datasets

Project description:With the COVID-19 vaccination widely implemented in most countries, propelled by the need to revive the tourism economy, there is a growing prospect for relieving the social distancing regulation and reopening borders in tourism-oriented countries and regions. This need incentivizes stakeholders to develop border control strategies that fully evaluate health risks if mandatory quarantines are lifted. In this study, we have employed a computational approach to investigate the contact tracing integrated policy in different border-reopening scenarios in Hong Kong, China. Explicitly, by reconstructing the COVID-19 transmission from historical data, specific scenarios with joint effects of digital contact tracing and other concurrent measures (i.e., controlling arrival population and community nonpharmacological interventions) are applied to forecast the future development of the pandemic. Built on a modified SEIR epidemic model with a 30% vaccination coverage, the results suggest that scenarios with digital contact tracing and quick isolation intervention can reduce the infectious population by 92.11% compared to those without contact tracing. By further restricting the inbound population with a 10,000 daily quota and applying moderate-to-strong community nonpharmacological interventions (NPIs), the average daily confirmed cases in the forecast period of 60 days can be well controlled at around 9 per day (95% CI: 7-12). Two main policy recommendations are drawn from the study. First, digital contact tracing would be an effective countermeasure for reducing local virus spread, especially when it is applied along with a moderate level of vaccination coverage. Second, implementing a daily quota on inbound travelers and restrictive community NPIs would further keep the local infection under control. This study offers scientific evidence and prospective guidance for developing and instituting plans to lift mandatory border control policies in preparing for the global economic recovery.

Project description:Objective Contact tracing is one of the key public health response actions to control the outbreak of a novel virus. This paper describes the preparation process, activation and operational experience for contact tracing of individuals in response to confirmed COVID-19 cases in Wales. Study design A descriptive approach has been adopted and lessons learned from our initial public health response to COVID-19 will be used to develop a new operational model for contact tracing in Wales. Methods As part of preparations for the response in Wales, Public Health Wales formed a Contact Tracing Cell (CTC) ready to be mobilised in the event of a confirmed case. Results Trial activation of the CTC during the preparation period helped to resolve some issues before ‘real’ activation. A highly flexible approach was needed due to the constant changes to the guidance that required rapid understanding, updates to pathways and clear communication to contact tracers. Conclusions Our experience and recommendations may benefit future efforts to control the spread of the virus in Wales and elsewhere, particularly in supporting COVID-19 outbreaks in enclosed settings such as care homes or in geographically localised areas. Learning from the initial public health response to COVID-19 will guide the delivery and implementation of a new contact tracing model as we move to a later stage of the pandemic when containment measures become feasible in localised outbreaks. This may include scaling-up the CTC to mobilise contact tracers to local teams and the potential use of digital technologies to support the next operational model of the CTC in Wales. Highlights • Contact tracing is one of the key public health response actions to control the outbreak of a novel virus.• For a CTC to be effective, identification and training of adequate numbers of staff needs to be done as early as possible.• A highly flexible approach was needed due to the logistical complexities of dealing with constant changes to the guidelines.• The mobilisation of non-health protection staff freed up health protection teams to deal with more complex issues.• Learning is needed to enhance future contact tracing activities when containment becomes feasible in localised outbreaks.

Dataset Information

Successful contact tracing systems for COVID-19 rely on effective quarantine and isolation.

Publications

Successful contact tracing systems for COVID-19 rely on effective quarantine and isolation.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets