Lockdown as a last resort option in case of COVID-19 epidemic rebound: a modelling study.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Tran Kiem C
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8176673 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Background and objectivesNursing homes are intended for older adults with the highest care needs. However, approximately 12% of all nursing home residents have similar care needs as older adults who live in the community and the reasons they are admitted to nursing homes is largely unstudied. The purpose of this study was to explore the reasons why lower-care nursing home residents are living in nursing homes.Research design and methodsA qualitative interpretive description methodology was used to gather and analyze data describing lower-care nursing home resident and family member perspectives regarding factors influencing nursing home admission, including the facilitators and barriers to living in a community setting. Data were collected via semistructured interviews and field notes. Data were coded and sorted, and patterns were identified. This resulted in themes describing this experience.ResultsThe main problem experienced by lower-care residents was living alone in the community. Residents and family members used many strategies to avoid safety crises in the community but experienced multiple care breakdowns in both community and health care settings. Nursing home admission was a strategy used to avoid a crisis when residents did not receive the needed support to remain in the community.Discussion and implicationsTo successfully remain in the community, older adults require specialized supports targeting mental health and substance use needs, as well as enhanced hospital discharge plans and improved information about community-based care options. Implications involve reforming policies and practices in both hospital and community-based care settings.
| S-EPMC7681216 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWith the evolving growth of the COVID-19 epidemic, travel restriction policies would need to be adjusted accordingly. Prohibition of mass event may be relaxed for social and economic benefits when virus transmission stops but could bear the risk of epidemic rebound. Against the background of the varied SARS-CoV-2 prevalence internationally, we modelled the potential impacts of pre-event interventions on epidemic risk of holding a mass event when COVID-19 is under control.MethodsWe developed a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Guangdong Province, China, where local virus transmission ceased to occur. A large-scale international trade fair was assumed to be held, with influx of people from overseas and rest of China over a short period of time, who participated for 2-week. Scenarios of pre-event intervention (none, quarantine arrangement and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing for participants) were compared. The influence of contact pattern, SARS-CoV-2 prevalence outside the province and China, and testing coverage were examined in sensitivity analyses.ResultsIn basecase scenario (no event), the epidemic has been under control since March 2020. The event would lead to the detection of 1% more confirmed cases by 31 July when community contact rate increases to pre-epidemic level. In event scenario without additional interventions, there would be 599 (93%) more new infections comparing with basecase scenario. To avert new infections, quarantining all participants before the event would be the most effective strategy, followed by quarantining all overseas participants and testing all other participants, and testing all participants before the event and on day 7. However, testing strategy is likely to be affected by the SARS-CoV-2 prevalence outside the event province.ConclusionsPre-event interventions are effective for reducing the risk of epidemic rebound caused by an international large-scale event. Universal testing for participants is likely to be an effective and feasible intervention.
| S-EPMC8785033 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundVietnam has emerged as one of the world's leading success stories in responding to COVID-19. After a prolonged period of little to no transmission, there was an outbreak of unknown source in July, 2020, in the Da Nang region, but the outbreak was quickly suppressed. We aimed to use epidemiological, behavioural, demographic, and policy data from the COVID-19 outbreak in Da Nang to calibrate an agent-based model of COVID-19 transmission for Vietnam, and to estimate the risk of future outbreaks associated with reopening of international borders in the country.MethodsFor this modelling study, we used comprehensive data from June 15 to Oct 15, 2020, on testing, COVID-19 cases, and quarantine breaches within an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to model a COVID-19 outbreak in Da Nang in July, 2020. We applied this model to quantify the risk of future outbreaks in Vietnam in the 3 months after the reopening of international borders, under different behavioural scenarios, policy responses (ie, closure of workplaces and schools), and ongoing testing.FindingsWe estimated that the outbreak in Da Nang between July and August, 2020, resulted in substantial community transmission, and that higher levels of symptomatic testing could have mitigated this transmission. We estimated that the outbreak peaked on Aug 2, 2020, with an estimated 1060 active infections (95% projection interval 890-1280). If the population of Vietnam remains highly compliant with mask-wearing policies, our projections indicate that the epidemic would remain under control even if a small but steady flow of imported infections escaped quarantine into the community. However, if complacency increases and testing rates are relatively low (10% of symptomatic individuals are tested), the epidemic could rebound again, resulting in an estimated 2100 infections (95% projected interval 1050-3610) in 3 months. These outcomes could be mitigated if the behaviour of the general population responds dynamically to increases in locally acquired cases that exceed specific thresholds, but only if testing of symptomatic individuals is also increased.InterpretationThe successful response to COVID-19 in Vietnam could be improved even further with higher levels of symptomatic testing. If the previous approaches are used in response to new COVID-19 outbreaks, epidemic control is possible even in the presence of low levels of imported cases.FundingMinistry of Science and Technology (Vietnam).TranslationFor the Vietnamese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
| S-EPMC8041387 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Shoulder dystocia is the term used to describe failure to progress in labour after the head has been delivered due to insufficient rotation of the shoulders. It is unpredictable and cannot be prevented by the midwife or the obstetrician. We report here on a severe case of shoulder dystocia, where delivery of the shoulder was finally achieved through direct pressure on the anterior shoulder after laparotomy and uterotomy with concurrent vaginal Woods screw manoeuvre and was followed by vaginal delivery. The patient presented risk factors like maternal obesity and administration of labour-inducing drugs. After different manoeuvres like McRoberts manoeuvre and several manoeuvres for internal rotation were carried out unsuccessfully, an emergency laparotomy was performed. The newborn was in need for reanimation and artifical ventilation postpartum but recovered fast during the following days. An Erb's palsy of the posterior arm improved during the hospital stay. The German Guideline of the DGGG 8 recommends a risk management plan and regular training to all birth attendants for obstetric clinics. Beside the vaginal manoeuvres one should have at least theoretical expertise in operative manoeuvres to be able to perform them in emergency cases.
| S-EPMC4168369 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWith at least 94 countries undergoing or exiting lockdowns for contact suppression to control the COVID-19 outbreak, sustainable and public health-driven exit strategies are required. Here we explore the impact of lockdown and exit strategies in Singapore for immediate planning.MethodsWe use an agent-based model to examine the impacts of epidemic control over 480 days. A limited control baseline of case isolation and household member quarantining is used. We measure the impact of lockdown duration and start date on final infection attack sizes. We then apply a 3-month gradual exit strategy, immediately re-opening schools and easing workplace distancing measures, and compare this to long-term social distancing measures.FindingsAt baseline, we estimated 815 400 total infections (21.6% of the population). Early lockdown at 5 weeks with no exit strategy averted 18 500 (2.27% of baseline averted), 21 300 (2.61%) and 22 400 (2.75%) infections for 6, 8 and 9-week lockdown durations. Using the exit strategy averted a corresponding 114 700, 121 700 and 126 000 total cases, representing 12.07-13.06% of the total epidemic size under baseline. This diminishes to 9 900-11 300 for a late 8-week start time. Long-term social distancing at 6 and 8-week durations are viable but less effective.InterpretationGradual release exit strategies are critical to maintain epidemic suppression under a new normal. We present final infection attack sizes assuming the ongoing importation of cases, which require preparation for a potential second epidemic wave due to ongoing epidemics elsewhere.FundingSingapore Ministry of Health, Singapore Population Health Improvement Centre.
| S-EPMC7395828 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesIn this study we compared two predictions of COVID-19 cases in the Kingdom Saudi Arabia (KSA) using pre-and post-relaxation of lockdown period data to provide an insight regarding rational exit strategies. We also applied these projections to understand economic costs versus health benefit of lockdown measures.MethodsWe analyzed open access data on COVID-19 cases from March 6 to January 16, 2021 in the KSA. To understand the epidemic projection during the pre- and post-lockdown period, we used two types of modeling: the SIR model, and the time series model. We also estimated the costs and benefits of lockdown- QALY gained compared to the costs of lockdown considering the payment threshold of the Government.ResultsPrediction using lockdown period data suggested that the epidemic might slow down significantly after 109 thousand cases and end on October 6, 2020. However, analysis with latest data after easing lockdown measures suggested that epidemic might be close to an end on October 28, 2021 with 358 thousand cases. The peak has also been shifted from May 18, 2020 to Jun 24, 2020. While earlier model predicted a steady growth in mid-June, the revised model with latest data predicted it in mid-August. In addition, we estimated that 4986 lives would have been saved if lockdown continued but the cost per life saved would be more than $378 thousand, which is way above not only the KSA threshold, but also the threshold of any other highly advanced economies such as the UK and the USA.ConclusionsOur results suggest that relaxation of lockdown measures negatively impacts the epidemic. However, considering the negative impact of prolong lockdown measures on health and economy, countries must decide on the best timing and strategy to exit from such measures to safely return to normal life with minimum loss of lives and economy considering its economic and health systems' capacity. Instead of focusing only on health, a balanced approach taking economy under consideration is recommended.
| S-EPMC8428777 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The COVID-19 epidemic was reported in the Hubei province in China in December 2019 and then spread around the world reaching the pandemic stage at the beginning of March 2020. Since then, several countries went into lockdown. Using a mechanistic-statistical formalism, we estimate the effect of the lockdown in France on the contact rate and the effective reproduction number R e of the COVID-19. We obtain a reduction by a factor 7 (R e = 0.47, 95%-CI: 0.45-0.50), compared to the estimates carried out in France at the early stage of the epidemic. We also estimate the fraction of the population that would be infected by the beginning of May, at the official date at which the lockdown should be relaxed. We find a fraction of 3.7% (95%-CI: 3.0-4.8%) of the total French population, without taking into account the number of recovered individuals before April 1st, which is not known. This proportion is seemingly too low to reach herd immunity. Thus, even if the lockdown strongly mitigated the first epidemic wave, keeping a low value of R e is crucial to avoid an uncontrolled second wave (initiated with much more infectious cases than the first wave) and to hence avoid the saturation of hospital facilities.
| S-EPMC7290065 | biostudies-literature
Project description:To assess the current epidemic trend of COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 in India, the epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 cases in India in terms of Case Fatality Rate (CFR), Case Recovery Rate (CRR) and Mortality rate (MR) COVID-19 have been evaluated during Lockdown-1. The analysis includes (i) epidemic curve of Covid-19 cases (ii) demographic analysis (iii) calculation of the CFR and CRR by different methods (iv) calculation of MR (v) Geo-temporal analysis (vi) epidemiological transmission factor (vii) evaluation of the effects and impact of infection, prevention and control in India. A total of 10,815 COVID-19 confirmed cases have been reported in 31 states/union territories as of April 14, 2020 with 9272 active cases (85.73%), 1190 cured/discharged (11%), and 353 deaths (3.23%). Among confirmed cases, most cases (59%) are aged 20-49 which is working age in India and 76% cases are reported for men. The median age of Indian COVID-19 patients found to be 39. As of April 14, the CFR per total cases in India is 3.32% and per closed cases is 23.27%. The CRR per total cases in India is 11.00% and per closed cases is 76.72%, which indicates that the recovery rate of COVID-19 is more than the fatality rate in India. The prevention and control measures taken by the state and central governments at all levels and measure of maintenance of social distancing by people have resulted in effective curbing in the COVID-19 transmission in India.
| S-EPMC7309423 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Each state in the USA exhibited a unique response to the COVID-19 outbreak, along with variable levels of testing, leading to different actual case burdens in the country. In this study, via per capita testing dependent ascertainment rates, along with case and death data, we fit a minimal epidemic model for each state. We estimate infection-level responsive lockdown/self-quarantine entry and exit rates (representing government and behavioural reaction), along with the true number of cases as of 31 May 2020. Ultimately, we provide error-corrected estimates for commonly used metrics such as infection fatality ratio and overall case ascertainment for all 55 states and territories considered, along with the USA in aggregate, in order to correlate outbreak severity with first wave intervention attributes and suggest potential management strategies for future outbreaks. We observe a theoretically predicted inverse proportionality relation between outbreak size and lockdown rate, with scale dependent on the underlying reproduction number and simulations suggesting a critical population quarantine 'half-life' of 30 days independent of other model parameters.
| S-EPMC8334836 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In the late stages of an epidemic, infections are often sporadic and geographically distributed. Spatially structured stochastic models can capture these important features of disease dynamics, thereby allowing a broader exploration of interventions. Here we develop a stochastic model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission among an interconnected group of population centers representing counties, municipalities, and districts (collectively, "counties"). The model is parameterized with demographic, epidemiological, testing, and travel data from Ontario, Canada. We explore the effects of different control strategies after the epidemic curve has been flattened. We compare a local strategy of reopening (and reclosing, as needed) schools and workplaces county by county, according to triggers for county-specific infection prevalence, to a global strategy of province-wide reopening and reclosing, according to triggers for province-wide infection prevalence. For trigger levels that result in the same number of COVID-19 cases between the two strategies, the local strategy causes significantly fewer person-days of closure, even under high intercounty travel scenarios. However, both cases and person-days lost to closure rise when county triggers are not coordinated and when testing rates vary among counties. Finally, we show that local strategies can also do better in the early epidemic stage, but only if testing rates are high and the trigger prevalence is low. Our results suggest that pandemic planning for the far side of the COVID-19 epidemic curve should consider local strategies for reopening and reclosing.
| S-EPMC7533690 | biostudies-literature