Dataset Information

Risk Prediction Model of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus in a Chinese Population Based on a Risk Scoring System.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is associated with adverse perinatal outcomes. Accurate models for early prediction of GDM are lacking. This study aimed to explore an early risk prediction model to identify women at high risk of GDM through a risk scoring system.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study of 785 control pregnancies and 855 women with GDM. Maternal clinical characteristics and biochemical measures were extracted from the medical records. Logistic regression analysis was used to obtain coefficients of selected predictors for GDM in the training cohort. The discrimination and calibration of the risk scores were evaluated by the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve and a Hosmer-Lemeshow test in the internal and external validation cohort, respectively.

Results

In the training cohort (total = 1640), two risk scores were developed, one including predictors collected at the first antenatal care visit for early prediction of GDM, such as age, height, pre-pregnancy body mass index, educational background, family history of diabetes, menstrual history, history of cesarean delivery, GDM, polycystic ovary syndrome, hypertension, and fasting blood glucose (FBG), and the total risk score also including FBG and triglyceride values during 14-20 gestational weeks. Our total risk score yielded an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.845 (95% CI = 0.805-0.884). This performed better in an external validation cohort, with an AUC of 0.886 (95% CI = 0.856-0.916).

Conclusion

The GDM risk score, which incorporates several potential clinical features with routine biochemical measures of GDM, appears to be a sensitive and reliable screening tool for earlier detection of GDM risk.

SUBMITTER: Wang Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8179863 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundGestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), one of the most common pregnancy complications, can lead to morbidity and mortality in both the mother and the infant. Metabolomics has provided new insights into the pathology of GDM and systemic analysis of GDM with metabolites is required for providing more clues for GDM diagnosis and mechanism research. This study aims to reveal metabolic differences between normal pregnant women and GDM patients in the second- and third-trimester stages and to confirm the clinical relevance of these new findings.MethodsMetabolites were quantitated with the serum samples of 200 healthy pregnant women and 200 GDM women in the second trimester, 199 normal controls, and 199 GDM patients in the third trimester. Both function and pathway analyses were applied to explore biological roles involved in the two sets of metabolites. Then the trimester stage-specific GDM metabolite biomarkers were identified by combining machine learning approaches, and the logistic regression models were constructed to evaluate predictive efficiency. Finally, the weighted gene co-expression network analysis method was used to further capture the associations between metabolite modules with biomarkers and clinical indices.ResultsThis study revealed that 57 differentially expressed metabolites (DEMs) were discovered in the second-trimester group, among which the most significant one was 3-methyl-2-oxovaleric acid. Similarly, 72 DEMs were found in the third-trimester group, and the most significant metabolites were ketoleucine and alpha-ketoisovaleric acid. These DEMs were mainly involved in the metabolism pathway of amino acids, fatty acids and bile acids. The logistic regression models for selected metabolite biomarkers achieved the area under the curve values of 0.807 and 0.81 for the second- and third-trimester groups. Furthermore, significant associations were found between DEMs/biomarkers and GDM-related indices.ConclusionsMetabolic differences between healthy pregnant women and GDM patients were found. Associations between biomarkers and clinical indices were also investigated, which may provide insights into pathology of GDM.