Modeling long-term health and economic implications of new treatment strategies for Parkinson's disease: an individual patient simulation study.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Chandler C
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8183552 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:The compromise to reduce, replace, and refine (3Rs) animal usage in cancer research demands the development of biologically capable ex vivo cancer models. The establishment of three-dimensional organoid-based systems has paved the way in this direction by bringing some realistic in vivo features to the in vitro context. However, faithful modeling of cancer requires a degree of tissue-level organization, multi-cellular diversity, biological durability, and experimental flexibility that far exceeds the capabilities of any existing in vitro systems. Here we implemented tissue engineering and microfabrication technologies to develop topobiologically complex patient-specific avatars of colorectal cancer able to overcome those limitations. These miniature tissues consist of long-lived gut-like-shaped healthy colon epithelia (“mini-colons”) that allow the stable integration of cancer cells and their native tumor microenvironment on a platform designed for the real-time high-resolution evaluation of cellular dynamics. This provides an unprecedented repertoire of ex vivo experimental possibilities, which we illustrate through different applications, including the discovery of a cancer associated fibroblast-triggered mechanism driving colorectal cancer invasion. As a whole, our mini-colon system pushes the boundaries of ex vivo cancer research in both basic and pre-clinical settings.
2024-05-01 | GSE226723 | GEO
Project description:BackgroundThe introduction of MenAfriVac in campaigns targeting people aged 1-29 years across the African meningitis belt has successfully reduced meningitis incidence and carriage due to Neisseria meningitidis group A (MenA). It is important to consider how best to sustain population protection in the long term.MethodsWe created a mathematical model of MenA transmission and disease to investigate the potential impact of a range of immunization strategies. The model is age structured; includes classes of susceptible, carrier, ill, and immune people (who may be vaccinated or unvaccinated); and incorporates seasonal transmission and a stochastic forcing term that models between year variation in rates of transmission. Model parameters were primarily derived from African sources. The model can describe the typical annual incidence of meningitis in the prevaccine era, with irregular epidemics of varying size. Parameter and structural uncertainty were explored in sensitivity analyses.ResultsFollowing MenAfriVac introduction at high uptake, the model predicts excellent short-term disease control. With no subsequent immunization, strong resurgences in disease incidence were predicted after approximately 15 years (assuming 10 years' average vaccine protection). Routine immunization at 9 months of age resulted in lower average annual incidence than regular mass campaigns of 1- to 4-year-olds, provided coverage was above approximately 60%. The strategy with the lowest overall average annual incidence and longest time to resurgence was achieved using a combination strategy of introduction into the Expanded Programme on Immunization at 9 months, 5 years after the initial mass campaigns, with a catch-up targeting unvaccinated 1- to 4-year-olds.ConclusionsThese results can be used to inform policy recommendations for long-term vaccination strategies with MenAfriVac.
| S-EPMC4639487 | biostudies-literature
Project description:As of mid-2020, eradicating COVID-19 seems not to be an option, at least in the short term. The challenge for policy makers consists of implementing a suitable approach to contain the outbreak and limit extra deaths without exhausting healthcare forces while mitigating the impact on the country's economy and on individuals' well-being. To better describe the trade-off between the economic, societal and public health dimensions, we developed an integrated bioeconomic optimization approach. We built a discrete age-structured model considering three main populations (youth, adults and seniors) and 8 socio-professional characteristics for the adults. Fifteen lockdown exit strategies were simulated for several options: abrupt or progressive (4 or 8 weeks) lockdown lift followed by total definitive transitory final unlocking. Three values of transmission rate (Tr) were considered to represent individuals' barrier gesture compliance. Optimization under constraint to find the best combination of scenarios and options was performed on the minimal total cost for production losses due to contracted activities and hospitalization in the short and mid-term, with 3 criteria: mortality, person-days locked and hospital saturation. The results clearly show little difference between the scenarios based on the economic impact or the 3 criteria. This means that policy makers should focus on individuals' behaviors (represented by the Tr value) more than on trying to optimize the lockdown strategy (defining who is unlocked and who is locked). For a given Tr, the choices of scenarios permit the management of the hospital saturation level with regard to both its intensity and its duration, which remains a key point for public health. The results highlight the need for behavioral or experimental economics to address COVID-19 issues through a better understanding of individual behavior motivations and the identification of ways to improve biosecurity compliance.
| S-EPMC7705347 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We present our agent-based CoronAvirus Lifelong Modelling and Simulation (CALMS) model that aspires to predict the lifelong impacts of Covid-19 on the health and economy of a population. CALMS considers individual characteristics as well as comorbidities in calculating the risk of infection and severe disease. We conduct two sets of experiments aiming at demonstrating the validity and capabilities of CALMS. We run simulations retrospectively and validate the model outputs against hospitalisations, ICU admissions and fatalities in a UK population for the period between March and September 2020. We then run simulations for the lifetime of the cohort applying a variety of targeted intervention strategies and compare their effectiveness against the baseline scenario where no intervention is applied. Four scenarios are simulated with targeted vaccination programmes and periodic lockdowns. Vaccinations are targeted first at individuals based on their age and second at vulnerable individuals based on their health status. Periodic lockdowns, triggered by hospitalisations, are tested with and without vaccination programme in place. Our results demonstrate that periodic lockdowns achieve reductions in hospitalisations, ICU admissions and fatalities of 6-8% compared to the baseline scenario, with an associated intervention cost of £173 million per 1,000 people and targeted vaccination programmes achieve reductions in hospitalisations, ICU admissions and fatalities of 89-90%, compared to the baseline scenario, with an associated intervention cost of £51,924 per 1,000 people. We conclude that periodic lockdowns alone are ineffective at reducing health-related outputs over the long-term and that vaccination programmes which target only the clinically vulnerable are sufficient in providing healthcare protection for the population as a whole.
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Project description:BackgroundParkinson's disease is a progressive, disabling neurodegenerative disorder associated with significant economic burden for patients and caregivers. The objective of this study was to compare the direct and indirect economic burden of Parkinson's patients' caregivers with demographically matched controls in the United States, in the 5 years after first diagnosis of Parkinson's disease.MethodsPolicyholders (18-64 years old) linked to a Parkinson's disease patient (≥2 diagnoses of Parkinson's disease; first diagnosis is the index date) from January 1, 1998 to March 31, 2014, were selected from a private-insurer claims database and categorized as Parkinson's caregivers. Eligible Parkinson's caregivers were matched 1:5 to policyholders with a non-Parkinson's dependent (controls). Multivariable regression adjusted for baseline characteristics estimated direct costs (all-cause insurer cost [medical and prescription] and comorbidity-related medical costs; patient out-of-pocket costs) and indirect costs (disability and medically related absenteeism costs). Income progression was also compared between cohorts.ResultsA total of 1211 eligible Parkinson's caregivers (mean age, 56 years; 54% female) were matched to 6055 controls. In adjusted analyses, Parkinson's caregivers incurred significantly higher year 1 total all-cause insurer costs ($8999 vs $7117) and medical costs ($7081 vs $5568) (both P < 0.01) and higher prescription costs (range for years 1-5, $2506-2573 vs $1405-$1687) and total out-of-pocket costs ($1259-1585 vs $902-$1192) in years 1-5 (all P < 0.01). Parkinson's caregivers had significantly higher adjusted indirect costs in years 1-3 (range for years 1-3, $2054-$2464 vs $1681-$1857; all P < 0.05) and higher cumulative income loss over 5 years ($5967 vs $2634 by year 5; P for interaction = 0.03).ConclusionsParkinson's caregivers exhibited higher direct and indirect costs and greater income loss compared with matched controls. © 2018 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society © 2018 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.
| S-EPMC6590233 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe elderly healthcare voucher (EHCV) scheme is expected to lead to an increase in the number of elderly people selecting private primary healthcare services and reduce reliance on the public sector in Hong Kong. However, studies thus far have reported that this scheme has not received satisfactory responses. In this study, we examined changes in the ratio of visits between public and private doctors in primary care (to measure reliance on the public sector) for different strategic scenarios in the EHCV scheme.MethodsBased on comments from an expert panel, a system dynamics model was formulated to simulate the impact of various enhanced strategies in the scheme: increasing voucher amounts, lowering the age eligibility, and designating vouchers for chronic conditions follow-up. Data and statistics for the model calibration were collected from various sources.ResultsThe simulation results show that the current EHCV scheme is unable to reduce the utilization of public healthcare services, as well as the ratio of visits between public and private primary care among the local aging population. When comparing three different tested scenarios, even if the increase in the annual voucher amount could be maintained at the current pace or the age eligibility can be lowered to include those aged 60 years, the impact on shifts from public-to-private utilization were insignificant. The public-to-private ratio could only be marginally reduced from 0.74 to 0.64 in the first several years. Nevertheless, introducing a chronic disease-oriented voucher could result in a significant drop of 0.50 in the public-to-private ratio during the early implementation phase. However, the effect could not be maintained for an extended period.ConclusionsOur findings will assist officials in improving the design of the EHCV scheme, within the wider context of promoting primary care among the elderly. We suggest that an additional chronic disease-oriented voucher can serve as an alternative strategy. The scheme must be redesigned to address more specific objectives or provide a separate voucher that promotes under-utilized healthcare services (e.g., preventive care), instead of services designed for unspecified reasons, which may lead to concerns regarding exploitation.
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Project description:IntroductionAlzheimer's disease (AD) is a progressive, neurodegenerative disease and is the most common cause of dementia. Lecanemab is a humanized monoclonal antibody targeting amyloid protofibrils for the treatment of early AD. In the phase II BAN2401-G000-201 trial (NCT01767311), lecanemab reduced amyloid accumulated in the brain and slowed progression on key global and cognitive scales evaluating efficacy after 18 months of treatment.MethodsA disease simulation model was used to predict the long-term clinical outcomes of lecanemab for patients with early AD [i.e., mild cognitive impairment (MCI) due to AD and mild AD dementia] on the basis of BAN2401-G000-201 trial data and published literature. The model captures the pathophysiology and management of AD, with a focus on simulating the effects of disease modification and early intervention on disease progression. The model compares lecanemab in addition to standard of care (SoC) versus SoC alone.ResultsLecanemab treatment was estimated to slow the rate of disease progression, resulting in an extended duration of MCI due to AD and mild AD dementia and shortened duration in moderate and severe AD dementia. The mean time to mild, moderate, and severe AD dementia was longer for patients in the lecanemab + SoC group than for patients in the SoC group by 2.51, 3.13, and 2.34 years, respectively. On base-case analysis, lecanemab was associated with 0.73 incremental life years (LY) and 0.75 incremental quality-adjusted LYs (QALY), and the caregiver QALYs lost was reduced by 0.03 years. The model also predicted a lower lifetime probability of admission to institutional care in lecanemab + SoC versus SoC group (25% versus 31%).ConclusionThe model results demonstrate the potential clinical value of lecanemab for patients with early AD and how it can slow the rate of disease progression and reduce the lifetime probability for institutionalized care.
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Project description:Bilateral subthalamic nucleus (STN) deep brain stimulation (DBS) is an effective and proven treatment option for patients with advanced Parkinson's disease (PD). Long-term outcomes (>5 years) have demonstrated sustained improvement in objective motor symptoms; however, few studies have evaluated patient-centered outcomes other than quality of life (QOL). A locally developed DBS-patient-centered outcomes questionnaire was administered to PD patients >5 years post-DBS. All questions were scored on a ten-point scale, whereby 0 represented the most 'positive' answer and 10 the most 'negative' answer. Pre-operative scales were repeated at the time of survey. Fifty-two patients (mean 8.2 ± 2.6 years post-DBS) were included. Satisfaction was high with median score (range) of 1/10 (0-8) at the time of survey. Patients endorsed having made the correct decision by undergoing DBS, with a score of 0 (0-10), would choose to have DBS again, with a score of 0 (0-10), and would recommend DBS to others, with a score of 0 (0-10). Pre-operative expectation target was set at a high level with a score of 2 (0-10). Parkinson's Disease QOL (PDQ-39) Questionnaire Summary Index (SI) scores were, mean (SD), 2.1 (18.2) above baseline (p = 0.44). Those with worsening in PDQ-39-SI scores had less satisfaction with DBS (rs = 0.57, p ? 0.0001). This is the first study to assess long-term patient satisfaction with STN DBS. We are currently collecting data prospectively to confirm the results of these preliminary findings.
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Project description:We develop a model to retrospectively evaluate age-dependent counterfactual vaccine allocation strategies against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. To estimate the effect of allocation on the expected severe-case incidence, we employ a simulation-assisted causal modeling approach that combines a compartmental infection-dynamics simulation, a coarse-grained causal model, and literature estimates for immunity waning. We compare Israel's strategy, implemented in 2021, with counterfactual strategies such as no prioritization, prioritization of younger age groups, or a strict risk-ranked approach; we find that Israel's implemented strategy was indeed highly effective. We also study the impact of increasing vaccine uptake for given age groups. Because of its modular structure, our model can easily be adapted to study future pandemics. We demonstrate this by simulating a pandemic with characteristics of the Spanish flu. Our approach helps evaluate vaccination strategies under the complex interplay of core epidemic factors, including age-dependent risk profiles, immunity waning, vaccine availability, and spreading rates.
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Project description:We developed a novel simulation model integrating multiple data sets to project long-term outcomes with contemporary therapy for early-stage Hodgkin lymphoma (ESHL), namely combined modality therapy (CMT) versus chemotherapy alone (CA) via 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography response-adaption. The model incorporated 3-year progression-free survival (PFS), probability of cure with/without relapse, frequency of severe late effects (LEs), and 35-year probability of LEs. Furthermore, we generated estimates for quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and unadjusted survival (life years, LY) and used model projections to compare outcomes for CMTversusCA for two index patients. Patient 1: a 25-year-old male with favourable ESHL (stage IA); Patient 2: a 25-year-old female with unfavourable ESHL (stage IIB). Sensitivity analyses assessed the impact of alternative assumptions for LE probabilities. For Patient 1, CMT was superior to CA (CMT incremental gain = 0·11 QALYs, 0·21 LYs). For Patient 2, CA was superior to CMT (CA incremental gain = 0·37 QALYs, 0·92 LYs). For Patient 1, the advantage of CMT changed minimally when the proportion of severe LEs was reduced from 20% to 5% (0·15 QALYs, 0·43 LYs), whereas increasing the severity proportion for Patient 2's LEs from 20% to 80% enhanced the advantage of CA (1·1 QALYs, 6·5 LYs). Collectively, this detailed simulation model quantified the long-term impact that varied host factors and alternative contemporary treatments have in ESHL.
| S-EPMC6055753 | biostudies-literature