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The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions.


ABSTRACT: Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794-2016 CE at 0.79 (p < 0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability.

SUBMITTER: Buntgen U 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8184857 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions.

Büntgen Ulf U   Allen Kathy K   Anchukaitis Kevin J KJ   Arseneault Dominique D   Boucher Étienne É   Bräuning Achim A   Chatterjee Snigdhansu S   Cherubini Paolo P   Churakova Sidorova Olga V OV   Corona Christophe C   Gennaretti Fabio F   Grießinger Jussi J   Guillet Sebastian S   Guiot Joel J   Gunnarson Björn B   Helama Samuli S   Hochreuther Philipp P   Hughes Malcolm K MK   Huybers Peter P   Kirdyanov Alexander V AV   Krusic Paul J PJ   Ludescher Josef J   Meier Wolfgang J-H WJ   Myglan Vladimir S VS   Nicolussi Kurt K   Oppenheimer Clive C   Reinig Frederick F   Salzer Matthew W MW   Seftigen Kristina K   Stine Alexander R AR   Stoffel Markus M   St George Scott S   Tejedor Ernesto E   Trevino Aleyda A   Trouet Valerie V   Wang Jianglin J   Wilson Rob R   Yang Bao B   Xu Guobao G   Esper Jan J  

Nature communications 20210607 1


Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates  ...[more]

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