Dataset Information

Summertime sea-ice prediction in the Weddell Sea improved by sea-ice thickness initialization.

ABSTRACT: Skillful sea-ice prediction in the Antarctic Ocean remains a big challenge due to paucity of sea-ice observations and insufficient representation of sea-ice processes in climate models. Using a coupled general circulation model, this study demonstrates skillful prediction of the summertime sea-ice concentration (SIC) in the Weddell Sea with wintertime SIC and sea-ice thickness (SIT) initializations. During low sea-ice years of the Weddell Sea, negative SIT anomalies initialized in June retain the memory throughout austral winter owing to horizontal advection of the SIT anomalies. The SIT anomalies continue to develop in austral spring owing to more incoming solar radiation and the associated warming of mixed layer, contributing to further sea-ice decrease during late austral summer-early autumn. Concomitantly, the model reasonably reproduces atmospheric circulation anomalies during austral spring in the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Seas besides the Weddell Sea. These results provide evidence that the wintertime SIT initialization benefits skillful summertime sea-ice prediction in the Antarctic Seas.

SUBMITTER: Morioka Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8190284 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Summertime sea-ice prediction in the Weddell Sea improved by sea-ice thickness initialization.

Morioka Yushi Y Iovino Doroteaciro D Cipollone Andrea A Masina Simona S Behera Swadhin K SK

Scientific reports 20210609 1

Skillful sea-ice prediction in the Antarctic Ocean remains a big challenge due to paucity of sea-ice observations and insufficient representation of sea-ice processes in climate models. Using a coupled general circulation model, this study demonstrates skillful prediction of the summertime sea-ice concentration (SIC) in the Weddell Sea with wintertime SIC and sea-ice thickness (SIT) initializations. During low sea-ice years of the Weddell Sea, negative SIT anomalies initialized in June retain th ...[more]

PMID: 34108493

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Project description:This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC) and its interactions with environmental factors from 2011 to 2023, focusing on the Weddell Sea. SIC products derived from MODIS data were assessed and compared with six widely used datasets, including AMSR2/NT2 and MWRI/NT2. Among these, MWRI/NT2 exhibited the highest consistency with MODIS-derived SIC, achieving a correlation coefficient of 0.94, the lowest bias (0.23%), and the smallest mean absolute deviation (MAD) and root mean square deviation (RMSD), making it the preferred dataset for further analysis. Seasonal trends reveal that SIC experienced the most significant decline during autumn (-10.7 ± 2.3 × 10³ km² yr⁻¹) and the smallest reduction in winter (-1.3 ± 0.5 × 10³ km² yr⁻¹). Correlation analysis identified sea surface temperature (SST), wind speed, and latent heat flux (LHF) as the primary drivers of seasonal SIC variability, with SST exhibiting strong negative correlations across all seasons (r = -0.81, p < 0.01). Spatially, SIC in the Weddell Sea displayed significant heterogeneity in its relationship with environmental factors. SST demonstrated a negative correlation with SIC, particularly in the western Weddell Sea, with lags of -3 to -5 months. LHF consistently promoted sea ice growth, with the strongest influence along the eastern Weddell Sea coast. Zonal and meridional winds exhibited both promoting and suppressing effects on SIC depending on the region and time period, reflecting complex wind-sea ice interactions. Mean sea level pressure (MSLP) showed opposing effects: suppressing SIC in the northern Weddell Sea and promoting it in the southern Weddell Sea. The use of geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) allowed the quantification of the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of these factors, with LHF identified as the most influential variable (median standardized coefficient = 1.44). These findings highlight the intricate interplay between atmospheric, oceanic, and sea ice dynamics in the Weddell Sea and provide a framework for understanding the drivers of sea ice variability under changing climatic conditions.

Project description:The impacts of climate change in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean are not uniform and ice-obligate species with dissimilar life-history characteristics will likely respond differently to their changing ecosystems. We use a unique data set of Weddell Leptonychotes weddellii and crabeater seals' (CESs) Lobodon carcinophaga breeding season distribution in the Weddell Sea, determined from satellite imagery. We contrast the theoretical climate impacts on both ice-obligate predators who differ in life-history characteristics: CESs are highly specialized Antarctic krill Euphausia superba predators and breed in the seasonal pack ice; Weddell seals (WESs) are generalist predators and breed on comparatively stable fast ice. We used presence-absence data and a suite of remotely sensed environmental variables to build habitat models. Each of the environmental predictors is multiplied by a 'climate change score' based on known responses to climate change to create a 'change importance product'. Results show CESs are more sensitive to climate change than WESs. Crabeater seals prefer to breed close to krill, and the compounding effects of changing sea ice concentrations and sea surface temperatures, the proximity to krill and abundance of stable breeding ice, can influence their post-breeding foraging success and ultimately their future breeding success. But in contrast to the Ross Sea, here WESs prefer to breed closer to larger colonies of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri). This suggests that the Weddell Sea may currently be prey-abundant, allowing the only two air-breathing Antarctic silverfish predators (Pleuragramma antarctica) (WESs and emperor penguins) to breed closer to each other. This is the first basin-scale, region-specific comparison of breeding season habitat in these two key Antarctic predators based on real-world data to compare climate change responses. This work shows that broad-brush, basin-scale approaches to understanding species-specific responses to climate change are not always appropriate, and regional models are needed-especially when designing marine protected areas.

Dataset Information

Summertime sea-ice prediction in the Weddell Sea improved by sea-ice thickness initialization.

Publications

Summertime sea-ice prediction in the Weddell Sea improved by sea-ice thickness initialization.

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