Project description:BACKGROUND: International medical graduates (IMGs) have been a valuable resource for the United States physician workforce, and their contribution to the United States workforce is likely to increase. OBJECTIVE: To describe the historical trends and compare the characteristics of IMGs to United States medical graduates (USMGs) in the United States. DESIGN: Longitudinal analysis of the American Medical Association Physicians' Professional Data (AMA-PPD) database using the 1978-2004 files and a comparative analysis of the characteristics of a random sample of 1,000 IMGs and a random sample of 1,000 USMGs using the 2004 file. MEASUREMENTS: Historical trends and characteristics of IMGs in the United States. RESULTS: Over the last 26 years, the number of IMGs in the United States grew by 4,873 per year reaching a total of 215,576 in 2004, about 2.4 times its size in 1978. The proportion of IMGs increased 0.12% per year, from 22.2% in 1978 to 25.6% in 2004. In 2004, compared with USMGs, IMGs were older, less likely to be board certified [Odds ratio (OR), 0.68; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.86], less likely to work in group practice (OR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.37 to 0.98), more likely to have Internal Medicine as practice specialty (OR, 2.10; 95% CI, 1.62 to 2.71) and more likely to be residents (OR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.07 to 2.16). CONCLUSIONS: Over the last quarter century, the IMGs provided a significant and steady supply for the United States physician workforce that continues to grow. Policymakers should consider the consequences for both the United States and source countries.
Project description:BackgroundAlthough the direct toll of COVID-19 in the United States has been substantial, concerns have also arisen about the indirect effects of the pandemic. Hospitalizations for acute cardiovascular conditions have declined, raising concern that patients may be avoiding hospitals because of fear of contracting severe acute respiratory syndrome- coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). Other factors, including strain on health care systems, may also have had an indirect toll.ObjectivesThis investigation aimed to evaluate whether population-level deaths due to cardiovascular causes increased during the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsThe authors conducted an observational cohort study using data from the National Center for Health Statistics to evaluate the rate of deaths due to cardiovascular causes after the onset of the pandemic in the United States, from March 18, 2020, to June 2, 2020, relative to the period immediately preceding the pandemic (January 1, 2020 to March 17, 2020). Changes in deaths were compared with the same periods in the previous year.ResultsThere were 397,042 cardiovascular deaths from January 1, 2020, to June 2, 2020. Deaths caused by ischemic heart disease increased nationally after the onset of the pandemic in 2020, compared with changes over the same period in 2019 (ratio of the relative change in deaths per 100,000 in 2020 vs. 2019: 1.11, 95% confidence interval: 1.04 to 1.18). An increase was also observed for deaths caused by hypertensive disease (1.17, 95% confidence interval: 1.09 to 1.26), but not for heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, or other diseases of the circulatory system. New York City experienced a large relative increase in deaths caused by ischemic heart disease (2.39, 95% confidence interval: 1.39 to 4.09) and hypertensive diseases (2.64, 95% confidence interval: 1.52 to 4.56) during the pandemic. More modest increases in deaths caused by these conditions occurred in the remainder of New York State, New Jersey, Michigan, and Illinois but not in Massachusetts or Louisiana.ConclusionsThere was an increase in deaths caused by ischemic heart disease and hypertensive diseases in some regions of the United States during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings suggest that the pandemic may have had an indirect toll on patients with cardiovascular disease.
Project description:BackgroundThe mortality effects of COVID-19 are a critical aspect of the disease's impact. Years of life lost (YLLs) can provide greater insight than the number of deaths by conveying the shortfall in life expectancy and thus the age profile of the decedents.MethodsWe employed data regarding COVID-19 deaths in the USA by jurisdiction, gender and age group for the period 1 February 2020 through 11 July 2020. We used actuarial life expectancy tables by gender and age to estimate YLLs.ResultsWe estimated roughly 1.2 million YLLs due to COVID-19 deaths. The YLLs for the top six jurisdictions exceeded those for the remaining 43. On a per-capita basis, female YLLs were generally higher than male YLLs throughout the country.ConclusionsOur estimates offer new insight into the effects of COVID-19. Our findings of heterogenous rates of YLLs by geography and gender highlight variation in the magnitude of the pandemic's effects that may inform effective policy responses.
Project description:Accurately determining the number of excess deaths caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is hard. The most important challenge is determining the counterfactual count of baseline deaths that would have occurred in its absence. Flexible estimation methods were used here to provide this baseline number and plausibility of the resulting estimates was evaluated by examining how changes between baseline and actual prior year deaths compared to historical year-over-year changes during the previous decade. Similar comparisons were used to examine the reasonableness of excess death estimates obtained in prior research. Total, group-specific and cause-specific excess deaths in the U.S. from March 2020 through February 2021 were calculated using publicly available data covering all deaths from March 2009 through December 2020 and provisional data for January 2021 and February 2021. The estimates indicate that there were 649,411 (95% CI: 600,133 to 698,689) excess deaths in the U.S. from 3/20-2/21, a 23% (95% CI: 21%-25%) increase over baseline, with 82.9% (95% CI: 77.0% - 89.7%) of these attributed directly to COVID-19. There were substantial differences across population groups and causes in the ratio of actual-to-baseline deaths, and in the contribution of COVID-19 to excess mortality. Prior research has probably often underestimated baseline mortality and so overstated both excess deaths and the percentage of them attributed to non-COVID-19 causes.
Project description:Early during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) leveraged an existing surveillance system infrastructure to monitor COVID-19 cases and deaths in the United States. Given the time needed to report individual-level (also called line-level) COVID-19 case and death data containing detailed information from individual case reports, CDC designed and implemented a new aggregate case surveillance system to inform emergency response decisions more efficiently, with timelier indicators of emerging areas of concern. We describe the processes implemented by CDC to operationalize this novel, multifaceted aggregate surveillance system for collecting COVID-19 case and death data to track the spread and impact of the SARS-CoV-2 virus at national, state, and county levels. We also review the processes established to acquire, process, and validate the aggregate number of cases and deaths due to COVID-19 in the United States at the county and jurisdiction levels during the pandemic. These processes include time-saving tools and strategies implemented to collect and validate authoritative COVID-19 case and death data from jurisdictions, such as web scraping to automate data collection and algorithms to identify and correct data anomalies. This topical review highlights the need to prepare for future emergencies, such as novel disease outbreaks, by having an event-agnostic aggregate surveillance system infrastructure in place to supplement line-level case reporting for near-real-time situational awareness and timely data.
Project description:BackgroundSeveral underlying medical conditions have been reported to be associated with an increased risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and related hospitalization and death. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) describing the proportion of disease burden attributable to underlying medical conditions for COVID-19 diagnosis and outcomes have not been reported.MethodsA retrospective population-based cohort study was conducted using Optum's de-identified Clinformatics Data Mart database. Individuals were followed up from 20 January 2020 to 31 December 2020 for diagnosis and clinical progression, including hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, intubation and mechanical ventilation or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, and death. Adjusted rate ratios and PAFs of underlying medical conditions for COVID-19 diagnosis and disease progression outcomes were estimated by age (18-49, 50-64, 65-74, or ≥75 years), sex, and race/ethnicity.ResultsOf 10 679 566 cohort members, 391 964 (3.7%) were diagnosed with COVID-19, of whom 87 526 (22.3%) were hospitalized. Of those hospitalized, 26 640 (30.4%) died. Overall, cardiovascular disease and diabetes had the highest PAFs for COVID-19 diagnosis and outcomes of increasing severity across age groups (up to 0.49 and 0.35, respectively). Among adults ≥75 years of age, neurologic disease had the second-highest PAFs (0.05‒0.27) after cardiovascular disease (0.26‒0.44). PAFs were generally higher in Black persons than in other race/ethnicity groups for the same conditions, particularly in the 2 younger age groups.ConclusionsA substantial fraction of the COVID-19 disease burden in the United States is attributable to cardiovascular disease and diabetes, highlighting the continued importance of COVID-19 prevention ( eg, vaccination, mask wearing, social distancing) and disease management of patients with certain underlying medical conditions.
Project description:ObjectivesThe COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted mental health, health-related behaviours such as drinking and illicit drug use and the accessibility of health and social care services. How these pandemic shocks affected 'despair'-related mortality in different countries is less clear. This study uses public data to compare deaths from alcohol, drugs and suicide in the United States and the United Kingdom to identify similarities or differences in the impact of the pandemic on important non-COVID causes of death across countries and to consider the public health implications of these trends.Study design and methodsData were taken from publicly available mortality figures for England and Wales, Northern Ireland, Scotland and the United States of America, 2001-2021, and analysed descriptively through age-standardised and age-specific mortality rates from suicide, alcohol and drug use.ResultsAlcohol-specific deaths increased in all countries between 2019 and 2021, most notably in the United States and, to a lesser extent, England and Wales. Suicide rates did not increase markedly during the pandemic in any of the included nations. Drug-related mortality rates rose dramatically over the same period in the United States but not in other nations.ConclusionsMortality from 'deaths of despair' during the pandemic has displayed divergent trends between causes and countries. Concerns about increases in deaths by suicide appear to have been unfounded, whereas deaths due to alcohol have risen across the United Kingdom and in the United States and across almost all age groups. Scotland and the United States had similarly high levels of drug-related deaths pre-pandemic, but the differing trends during the pandemic highlight the different underlying causes of these drug death epidemics and the importance of tailoring policy responses to these specific contexts.
Project description:Mixed evidence on the relationship between school closure and COVID-19 prevalence could reflect focus on large-scale levels of geography, limited ability to address endogeneity, and demographic variation. Using county-level Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) COVID-19 data through June 15, 2020, two matching strategies address potential heterogeneity: nearest geographic neighbor and propensity scores. Within nearest neighboring pairs in different states with different school closure timing, each additional day from a county's first case until state-ordered school closure is related to 1.5 to 2.4 percent higher cumulative COVID-19 deaths per capita (1,227-1,972 deaths for a county with median population and deaths/capita). Results are consistent using propensity score matching, COVID-19 data from two alternative sources, and additional sensitivity analyses. School closure is more strongly related to COVID-19 deaths in counties with a high concentration of Black or poor residents, suggesting schools play an unequal role in transmission and earlier school closure is related to fewer lives lost in disadvantaged counties.
Project description:COVID-19 vaccination campaigns continue in the United States, with the expectation that vaccines will slow transmission of the virus, save lives, and enable a return to normal life in due course. However, the extent to which faster vaccine administration has affected COVID-19-related deaths is unknown. We assessed the association between US state-level vaccination rates and COVID-19 deaths during the first five months of vaccine availability. We estimated that by May 9, 2021, the US vaccination campaign was associated with a reduction of 139,393 COVID-19 deaths. The association varied in different states. In New York, for example, vaccinations led to an estimated 11.7 fewer COVID-19 deaths per 10,000, whereas Hawaii observed the smallest reduction, with an estimated 1.1 fewer deaths per 10,000. Overall, our analysis suggests that the early COVID-19 vaccination campaign was associated with reductions in COVID-19 deaths. As of May 9, 2021, reductions in COVID-19 deaths associated with vaccines had translated to value of statistical life benefit ranging between $625 billion and $1.4 trillion.
Project description:BackgroundNewborn care practices that best promote the health and well-being of mother-infant dyads after birth while minimizing transmission of COVID-19 were uncertain at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.ObjectiveExamine variation in COVID-19 newborn care practices among U.S. birth hospitals and by hospital characteristics (U.S. census region, highest level of neonatal level of care, and Baby-Friendly hospital status).Study designWe surveyed physicians via American Academy of Pediatrics email listservs and social media between 5/26/2020-6/8/2020. Physicians identified the birth hospital in which they provided newborn care and their hospital's approach to obstetrical and newborn care related to COVID-19. Chi-square tests were used to examine variation in hospital practices by U.S. census region, highest level of neonatal care, and Baby-Friendly hospital status.ResultsFour hundred thirty three physicians responded from 318 hospitals across 46 states. Variation in care of SARS-CoV-2 positive mother-infant dyads was greatest for approaches to location of newborn care (31% separation, 17% rooming-in, and 51% based on shared-decision making), early skin-to-skin care (48% prohibited/discouraged, 11% encouraged, and 40% based on shared-decision making) and direct breastfeeding (37% prohibited/discouraged, 15% encouraged, and 48% based on shared-decision making). Among presumed uninfected dyads, 59% of hospitals discharged at least some mother-infant dyads early. We found variation in practices by U.S. census region.ConclusionApproaches to newborn care and breastfeeding support for mother-infant dyads with positive SARS-CoV-2 testing differed across U.S. birth hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic. Early discharge of presumed uninfected mother-infant dyads was common.