Inadequate methods undermine a study of malaria, deforestation and trade.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Kuschnig N
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8213779 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Deforestation can increase the transmission of malaria. Here, we build upon the existing link between malaria risk and deforestation by investigating how the global demand for commodities that increase deforestation can also increase malaria risk. We use a database of trade relationships to link the consumption of deforestation-implicated commodities in developed countries to estimates of country-level malaria risk in developing countries. We estimate that about 20% of the malaria risk in deforestation hotspots is driven by the international trade of deforestation-implicated export commodities, such as timber, wood products, tobacco, cocoa, coffee and cotton. By linking malaria risk to final consumers of commodities, we contribute information to support demand-side policy measures to complement existing malaria control interventions, with co-benefits for reducing deforestation and forest disturbance.
| S-EPMC7062889 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Deforestation and land use change are among the most pressing anthropogenic environmental impacts. In Brazil, a resurgence of malaria in recent decades paralleled rapid deforestation and settlement in the Amazon basin, yet evidence of a deforestation-driven increase in malaria remains equivocal. We hypothesize an underlying cause of this ambiguity is that deforestation and malaria influence each other in bidirectional causal relationships-deforestation increases malaria through ecological mechanisms and malaria reduces deforestation through socioeconomic mechanisms-and that the strength of these relationships depends on the stage of land use transformation. We test these hypotheses with a large geospatial dataset encompassing 795 municipalities across 13 y (2003 to 2015) and show deforestation has a strong positive effect on malaria incidence. Our results suggest a 10% increase in deforestation leads to a 3.3% increase in malaria incidence (?9,980 additional cases associated with 1,567 additional km2 lost in 2008, the study midpoint, Amazon-wide). The effect is larger in the interior and absent in outer Amazonian states where little forest remains. However, this strong effect is only detectable after controlling for a feedback of malaria burden on forest loss, whereby increased malaria burden significantly reduces forest clearing, possibly mediated by human behavior or economic development. We estimate a 1% increase in malaria incidence results in a 1.4% decrease in forest area cleared (?219 fewer km2 cleared associated with 3,024 additional cases in 2008). This bidirectional socioecological feedback between deforestation and malaria, which attenuates as land use intensifies, illustrates the intimate ties between environmental change and human health.
| S-EPMC6825316 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveAnalyse the transnational tobacco companies' (TTCs) memoranda of understanding (MoUs) on illicit trade and how they could undermine the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) and the Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products (Protocol).MethodsReview of tobacco industry documents and websites, reports, news and media items using standard snowball search methods.ResultsFacing increasing pressure from governments and the FCTC to address illicit tobacco trade during the late 1990s, TTCs entered into voluntary partnerships embodied in MoUs with governments' law enforcement and customs agencies. One of the earliest known MoUs was between Philip Morris International and Italy in 1999. TTCs agreed among themselves to establish MoUs individually but use the Italian MoU as a basis to establish similar connections with other governments to pre-empt more stringent regulation of illicit trade. TTCs report to have signed over 100 MoUs since 1999, and promote them on their websites, in Corporate Social Responsibility reports and in the media as important partnerships to combat illicit tobacco trade. There is no evidence to support TTCs' claims that these MoUs reduce illicit trade. The terms of these MoUs are rarely made public. MoUs are non-transparent partnerships between government agencies and TTCs, violating FCTC Article 5.3 and the Protocol. MoUs are not legally binding so do not create an accountability system or penalties for non-compliance, rendering them ineffective at controlling illicit trade.ConclusionGovernments should reject TTC partnerships through MoUs and instead ratify and implement the FCTC and the Protocol to effectively address illicit trade in tobacco products.
| S-EPMC6639151 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Tropical forest diversity is simultaneously threatened by habitat loss and exploitation for wildlife trade. Quantitative conservation assessments have previously considered these threats separately, yet their impacts frequently act together. We integrate forest extent maps in 2000 and 2015 with a method of quantifying exploitation pressure based upon a species' commercial value and forest accessibility. We do so for 308 forest-dependent bird species, of which 77 are commercially traded, in the Southeast Asian biodiversity hotspot of Sundaland. We find 89% (274) of species experienced average habitat losses of 16% and estimate exploitation led to mean population declines of 37%. Assessing the combined impacts of deforestation and exploitation indicates the average losses of exploited species are much higher (54%), nearly doubling the regionally endemic species (from 27 to 51) threatened with extinction that should be IUCN Red Listed. Combined assessment of major threats is vital to accurately quantify biodiversity loss.
| S-EPMC6170487 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The complex transmission ecologies of vector-borne and zoonotic diseases pose challenges to their control, especially in changing landscapes. Human incidence of zoonotic malaria ( Plasmodium knowlesi) is associated with deforestation although mechanisms are unknown. Here, a novel application of a method for predicting disease occurrence that combines machine learning and statistics is used to identify the key spatial scales that define the relationship between zoonotic malaria cases and environmental change. Using data from satellite imagery, a case-control study, and a cross-sectional survey, predictive models of household-level occurrence of P. knowlesi were fitted with 16 variables summarized at 11 spatial scales simultaneously. The method identified a strong and well-defined peak of predictive influence of the proportion of cleared land within 1 km of households on P. knowlesi occurrence. Aspect (1 and 2 km), slope (0.5 km) and canopy regrowth (0.5 km) were important at small scales. By contrast, fragmentation of deforested areas influenced P. knowlesi occurrence probability most strongly at large scales (4 and 5 km). The identification of these spatial scales narrows the field of plausible mechanisms that connect land use change and P. knowlesi, allowing for the refinement of disease occurrence predictions and the design of spatially-targeted interventions.
| S-EPMC6367187 | biostudies-literature
Project description:As countries in the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) increasingly focus their malaria control and elimination efforts on reducing forest-related transmission, greater understanding of the relationship between deforestation and malaria incidence will be essential for programs to assess and meet their 2030 elimination goals. Leveraging village-level health facility surveillance data and forest cover data in a spatio-temporal modeling framework, we found evidence that deforestation is associated with short-term increases, but long-term decreases confirmed malaria case incidence in Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). We identified strong associations with deforestation measured within 30 km of villages but not with deforestation in the near (10 km) and immediate (1 km) vicinity. Results appear driven by deforestation in densely forested areas and were more pronounced for infections with Plasmodium falciparum (P. falciparum) than for Plasmodium vivax (P. vivax). These findings highlight the influence of forest activities on malaria transmission in the GMS.
| S-EPMC8024023 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The introduction of non-native species and deforestation are both important drivers of environmental change that can also facilitate the geographic spread of zoonotic pathogens and increase disease risk in humans. With ongoing trends in globalization and land-use conversions, introduced species and deforestation are ever more likely to pose threats to human health. Here, we used rat lungworm disease, an emerging zoonotic disease caused by Angiostrongylus cantonensis and maintained by invasive rats and snails, to explore how these two forms of environmental change can impact zoonotic disease risk. We used logistic regressions to examine the role of global trade in the introduction of A. cantonensis at a country level and used model estimates to predict the probability of introduction as a function of trade. We then used hurdle-based regression models to examine the association between deforestation and rat lungworm disease in two regions where A. cantonensis is already established: Hawaii and Thailand. At the global scale, we found the trade of horticultural products to be an important driver in the spread of A. cantonensis and that the majority of countries at high risk of future A. cantonensis introduction are islands. At country scales, we found deforestation to increase the per-capita risk of A. cantonensis exposure in Hawaii and Thailand. Our study provides a preliminary view of the associations between species introductions, deforestation, and risk of A. cantonensis exposure in people. Better understanding how these two widespread and overlapping forms of environmental change affect human health can inform international biosecurity protocols, invasive species management, and land-use policies.
| S-EPMC8458565 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Measure genomic change between strains of Plasmodium falciparum in laboratory and after gene manipulation
| PRJEB12838 | ENA
Project description:We performed bimonthly mosquito larval collections during 1 year, in an agricultural settlement in the Brazilian Amazon, as well as an analysis of malaria incidence in neighboring houses. Water collections located at forest fringes were more commonly positive for Anopheles darlingi larvae and Kulldorff spatial analysis pinpointed significant larval clusters at sites directly beneath forest fringes, which were called larval "hotspots." Remote sensing identified 43 "potential" hotspots. Sampling of these areas revealed an 85.7% positivity rate for A. darlingi larvae. Malaria was correlated with shorter distances to potential hotpots and settlers living within 400 m of potential hotspots had a 2.60 higher risk of malaria. Recently arrived settlers, usually located closer to the tip of the triangularly shaped deforestation imprints of side roads, may be more exposed to malaria due to their proximity to the forest fringe. As deforestation progresses, transmission decreases. However, forest remnants inside deforested areas conferred an increased risk of malaria. We propose a model for explaining frontier malaria in the Amazon: because of adaptation of A. darlingi to the forest fringe ecotone, humans are exposed to an increased transmission risk when in proximity to these areas, especially when small dams are created on naturally running water collections.
| S-EPMC4703263 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn Ethiopia, malaria has declined in the last decade; only a small number of cases have been reported, primarily from hotspots. The contribution of house proximity to water bodies and the role of migration in malaria transmission has not yet been examined in detail in northwest Ethiopia. Individual and household-level environmental and socio-demographic drivers of malaria heterogeneity were explored contextually in meso-endemic villages around Lake Tana, northwest Ethiopia.MethodsA health facility-based paired age-sex matched case-control study involving 303 matched pairs was undertaken from 10 October 2016, to 30 June 2017. Geo-referencing of case households, control households, proximate water bodies, and health centres was carried out. A pretested and structured questionnaire was used to collect data on socio-demography, household assets, housing, travel history, and malaria intervention measures. Medians (interquartile range) were computed for continuous variables. Pearson's Chi square/Fisher's exact test was used to detect significant differences in proportions. Principal component analysis was performed to estimate household wealth. Stratified analysis was used to confirm confounding and interaction. A multivariable conditional logistic regression model was used to detect risk factors for malaria.ResultsOf 303 malaria cases, 59 (19.5% [15.4-24.3]) were imported malaria cases whereas 244 (80.5% [75.7-84.6]) were locally acquired malaria cases. In bivariate analysis, marital status, educational status, and bed net ownership were significantly associated with malaria cases. In multivariable adjustment, travel to malarious lowlands in the preceding month (adjusted mOR?=?7.32; 95% CI 2.40-22.34), household member's travel to malarious lowlands (adjusted mOR?=?2.75; 95% CI 1.02-7.44), and inadequate health information on malaria (adjusted mOR?=?1.57; 95% CI 1.03-2.41) were predictors of malaria. Stratified analysis confirmed that elevation of households and travel to malarious lowlands were not effect modifiers. Travel to malarious lowlands had a confounding effect on malaria but elevation of households did not.ConclusionsIn this study, travel to farms in the lowlands and inadequate health information on malaria were risk factors for malaria in villages around Lake Tana. This evidence is critical for the design of improved strategic interventions that consider imported malaria cases and approaches for accessing health information on malaria control in northwest Ethiopia.
| S-EPMC6086053 | biostudies-literature