Characterizing two outbreak waves of COVID-19 in Spain using phenomenological epidemic modelling.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Lopez M
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8224976 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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| S-EPMC7612211 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundRisk for severe COVID-19 increases with age. Different vaccination strategies are currently being considered, including those aimed at slowing down transmission and those aimed at providing direct protection to those most at risk.MethodsThe objectives of the current study were i) to assess age-related incidence and survival between PCR-diagnosed COVID-19 cases (n = 61,993) in the Autonomous Community of Aragon from March to November 2020, and ii) to characterize age differences regarding the course of the disease in hospitalized patients in a tertiary university hospital.ResultsWe found a similar incidence of COVID-19 in individuals between 10 and 79 years. Incidence increased in those over 80 years possibly because of the elevated transmission within the nursing homes. We observed a profound disparity among age groups; case fatality rates (CFRs) were near 0 in cases younger than 39 years throughout different waves. In contrast, there was an age-dependent and progressive increase in the CFRs, especially during the first pandemic wave. SARS-CoV-2 infection caused a more severe and rapid progression in older patients. The elderly required faster hospitalization, presented more serious symptoms on admission, and had a worse clinical course. Hospitalized older individuals, even without comorbidities, had an increased mortality risk directly associated with their age. Lastly, the existence of comorbidities dramatically increased the CFRs in the elderly, especially in males.ConclusionThe elevated incidence of COVID-19 and the vulnerability of the elderly call for their prioritization in vaccination and targeted prevention measures specifically focused on this aged population.
| S-EPMC8659616 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Understanding spatial determinants, i.e., social, infrastructural, and environmental features of a place, which shape infectious disease is critically important for public health. We present an exploration of the spatial determinants of reported COVID-19 incidence across India's 641 urban and rural districts, comparing two waves (2020-2021). Three key results emerge using three COVID-19 incidence metrics: cumulative incidence proportion (aggregate risk), cumulative temporal incidence rate, and severity ratio. First, in the same district, characteristics of COVID-19 incidences are similar across waves, with the second wave over four times more severe than the first. Second, after controlling for state-level effects, urbanization (urban population share), living standards, and population age emerge as positive determinants of both risk and rates across waves. Third, keeping all else constant, lower shares of workers working from home correlate with greater infection risk during the second wave. While much attention has focused on intra-urban disease spread, our findings suggest that understanding spatial determinants across human settlements is also important for managing current and future pandemics.
| S-EPMC9613454 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Determining the level of social distancing, quantified here as the reduction in daily number of social contacts per person, i.e. the daily contact rate, needed to maintain control of the COVID-19 epidemic and not exceed acute bed capacity in case of future epidemic waves, is important for future planning of relaxing of strict social distancing measures. This work uses mathematical modelling to simulate the levels of COVID-19 in North East London (NEL) and inform the level of social distancing necessary to protect the public and the healthcare demand from future COVID-19 waves. We used a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model describing the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in NEL, calibrated to data on hospitalised patients with confirmed COVID-19, hospital discharges and in-hospital deaths in NEL during the first epidemic wave. To account for the uncertainty in both the infectiousness period and the proportion of symptomatic infection, we simulated nine scenarios for different combinations of infectiousness period (1, 3 and 5 days) and proportion of symptomatic infection (70%, 50% and 25% of all infections). Across all scenarios, the calibrated model was used to assess the risk of occurrence and predict the strength and timing of a second COVID-19 wave under varying levels of daily contact rate from July 04, 2020. Specifically, the daily contact rate required to suppress the epidemic and prevent a resurgence of COVID-19 cases, and the daily contact rate required to stay within the acute bed capacity of the NEL system without any additional intervention measures after July 2020, were determined across the nine different scenarios. Our results caution against a full relaxing of the lockdown later in 2020, predicting that a return to pre-COVID-19 levels of social contact from July 04, 2020, would induce a second wave up to eight times the original wave. With different levels of ongoing social distancing, future resurgence can be avoided, or the strength of the resurgence can be mitigated. Keeping the daily contact rate lower than 5 or 6, depending on scenarios, can prevent an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases, could keep the effective reproduction number Re below 1 and a secondary COVID-19 wave may be avoided in NEL. A daily contact rate between 6 and 7, across scenarios, is likely to increase Re above 1 and result in a secondary COVID-19 wave with significantly increased COVID-19 cases and associated deaths, but with demand for hospital-based care remaining within the bed capacity of the NEL health and care system. In contrast, an increase in daily contact rate above 8 to 9, depending on scenarios, will likely exceed the acute bed capacity in NEL and may potentially require additional lockdowns. This scenario is associated with significantly increased COVID-19 cases and deaths, and acute COVID-19 care demand is likely to require significant scaling down of the usual operation of the health and care system and should be avoided. Our findings suggest that to avoid future COVID-19 waves and to stay within the acute bed capacity of the NEL health and care system, maintaining social distancing in NEL is advised with a view to limiting the average number of social interactions in the population. Increasing the level of social interaction beyond the limits described in this work could result in future COVID-19 waves that will likely exceed the acute bed capacity in the system, and depending on the strength of the resurgence may require additional lockdown measures.
| S-EPMC7952900 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has caused an unprecedented clinical situation. A retrospective cross-sectional study was designed with the aim to evaluate psychiatric emergencies from March 14 to May 1, 2020, coinciding with the start of the emergency state and the lockdown until the attenuation of the confinement. Data obtained during this period were compared with the emergencies attended in the same period of 2019. A total of 213 psychiatric emergencies were attended in 2020 compared with 367 in 2019. The mean number of emergencies per day was significantly lower during the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 (M=4.35, SD= 2.04) vs. the same period in 2019 (M=7.50, SD= 3.18). A higher percentage of patients with schizo/psychotic disorders (34.3% in 2020, vs. 24.3% in 2019), as well as a lower percentage of patients with anxiety/adaptive disorders (25.4% in 2020 vs. 35.4% in 2019) was observed during the outbreak. A significant lower mean discharge/emergency ratio (M=42.17, SD= 26.94 in 2020 vs. M=63.43, SD= 17.64 in 2019) and a higher referral to Internal Medicine/emergency ratio (M=20.55, SD= 22.16 in 2020 vs. M=3.32, SD= 6.63 in 2019) was observed. The results suggest important changes in psychiatric emergencies during the most critical period of the COVID-19 outbreak in Spain.
| S-EPMC7672359 | biostudies-literature
Project description:An outbreak of the novel COVID-19 virus occurred during February 2020 onwards in almost all the European countries, including Spain. This study covers the correlation found between weather variables (Maximum Temperature, Minimum Temperature, Mean Temperature, Atmospheric Pressure, Daily Rainfall, Daily Sun hours) and the coronavirus propagation in Spain. A strong relationship is found when correlating the virus spread to the mean temperature, minimum temperature, and atmospheric pressure in different Spanish provinces. In this analysis we have used the ratio of the PCR COVID-19 positives with respect to the population size. A linear regression model using the mean temperature is implemented. Moreover, an analysis of variance is used to confirm the influence of mean temperature on the spread of virus. As a second measurement of the COVID-19 outbreak we have used the results of the antibodies tests carried out in Spain that provide an estimation of the heard immunity achieved. Based on this analysis, an estimation of the asymptomatic population is performed. All these results exhibit significant correlation with weather variables. The most affected provinces were Soria, Segovia and Ciudad Real, which are the coldest. On the opposite side, places such as Southern Spain, the Baleares, and Canary Islands showed a lower rate of spread. This might be related to the warmer climate and the insularity of these islands. Besides, the coastal influence and the daily sun hours might also influence the lower rates in the east and west regions in Spain. This analysis provides a deeper insight of the influence of weather variables onto the COVID-19 spread in Spain.
| S-EPMC7914019 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Immigrant populations have been shown to display a disproportionately high mortality burden during the Covid-19 epidemic in some high-income countries. Individual civil registration data from Spain, one of the countries with the highest Covid-19 mortality in Europe, was used in order to characterize mortality during the Covid-19 epidemic for different immigrant groups. Individuals born in South America, Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia are shown to have suffered higher mortality impact than the native-born, particularly at working ages (40-59 years old), which could be due to higher proportions of immigrants from these regions among key workers. However, this disproportionate impact is not as high as found in other European countries, like France or Sweden. On the other hand, immigrants born in Europe show a relatively low mortality increment during the epidemic compared to the native-born. In addition, evidence is shown of a generalized and strong migrant mortality advantage for all non-European immigrant groups in Spain, that reduces or even reverses for some groups of countries of birth in 2020.
| S-EPMC9676914 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) broke out first in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China. In the process of controlling the pandemic, many Chinese medical staff (MS) were infected. We used government data, post mortem reports, and the medical literature on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, as well as prevention-and-control guidelines from the government, hospitals and media, to discuss the main risks factors faced by MS. We suggest that, when dealing with a similar pandemic in the future, guidance on personal protective equipment must be provided and materials reserved in advance. Also, the emergency response of medical institutions should be enhanced, and information shared with other countries facing identical severe challenges.
| S-EPMC7430766 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Public health studies warn of the vulnerability of people with mental disorders during the COVID-19 outbreak. Thus, the aims of this study were to (1) explore the presence of symptoms of anxiety, depression and acute stress among people with a mental disorder (MD); (2) evaluate the rate of COVID-19 infection between MD and non-MD, and (3) study the relationship between the emotional state of people with a mental disorder and some environmental variables. A cross-sectional study starting on March 29 to April 5, 2020 based on a national online survey using snowball sampling techniques was conducted. Symptoms of anxiety (Hamilton Anxiety Scale), depression (Beck Depression Inventory) and acute stress (Acute Stress Disorder Inventory) were compared in MD and non-MD. The rate of COVID-19 confirmed cases among MD and non-MD was compared as well as the relationship between some environmental variables and the emotional state within MD. Up to 1839 [201 (10.9%) MD] participants completed the survey. MD showed significant higher mean (SD) in anxiety [24.7 (11.8) vs. 17 (10.3); p = 0.001], depression [7.9 (6.0) vs. 4.2 (4.2); p = 0.001] and acute stress [6.3 (3.2) vs. 4.4 (3.1); p = 0.001] scores than non-MD. The COVID-19 confirmed cases rate was higher in MD participants than in non-MD (3.5% vs. 0.4%; p < 0.001). Among the MD group, being a COVID-19 confirmed case, the lack in basic needs coverage, the rpesence of violence, drug use and the absence of physical excercise were associated with more severe depressive symptoms. Findings suggest that the COVID-19 has an impact on the emotional state of people with mental disorders.
| S-EPMC7817388 | biostudies-literature