Count Data Time Series Modelling in Julia-The CountTimeSeries.jl Package and Applications.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Stapper M
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8228825 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundCount time series (e.g., daily deaths) are a very common type of data in environmental health research. The series is generally autocorrelated, while the widely used generalized linear model is based on the assumption of independent outcomes. None of the existing methods for modelling parameter-driven count time series can obtain consistent and reliable standard error of parameter estimates, causing potential inflation of type I error rate.MethodsWe proposed a new maximum significant ρ correction (MSRC) method that utilizes information of significant autocorrelation coefficient ρ estimate within 5 orders by moment estimation. A Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to evaluate and compare the finite sample performance of the MSRC and classical unbiased correction (UB-corrected) method. We demonstrated a real-data analysis for assessing the effect of drunk driving regulations on the incidence of road traffic injuries (RTIs) using MSRC in Shenzhen, China. Moreover, there is no previous paper assessing the time-varying intervention effect and considering autocorrelation based on daily data of RTIs.ResultsBoth methods had a small bias in the regression coefficients. The autocorrelation coefficient estimated by UB-corrected is slightly underestimated at high autocorrelation (≥ 0.6), leading to the inflation of the type I error rate. The new method well controlled the type I error rate when the sample size reached 340. Moreover, the power of MSRC increased with increasing sample size and effect size and decreasing nuisance parameters, and it approached UB-corrected when ρ was small (≤ 0.4), but became more reliable as autocorrelation increased further. The daily data of RTIs exhibited significant autocorrelation after controlling for potential confounding, and therefore the MSRC was preferable to the UB-corrected. The intervention contributed to a decrease in the incidence of RTIs by 8.34% (95% CI, -5.69-20.51%), 45.07% (95% CI, 25.86-59.30%) and 42.94% (95% CI, 9.56-64.00%) at 1, 3 and 5 years after the implementation of the intervention, respectively.ConclusionsThe proposed MSRC method provides a reliable and consistent approach for modelling parameter-driven time series with autocorrelated count data. It offers improved estimation compared to existing methods. The strict drunk driving regulations can reduce the risk of RTIs.
| S-EPMC10967065 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundData collected to inform time variations in natural population size are tainted by sampling error. Ignoring sampling error in population dynamics models induces bias in parameter estimators, e.g., density-dependence. In particular, when sampling errors are independent among populations, the classical estimator of the synchrony strength (zero-lag correlation) is biased downward. However, this bias is rarely taken into account in synchrony studies although it may lead to overemphasizing the role of intrinsic factors (e.g., dispersal) with respect to extrinsic factors (the Moran effect) in generating population synchrony as well as to underestimating the extinction risk of a metapopulation.Methodology/principal findingsThe aim of this paper was first to illustrate the extent of the bias that can be encountered in empirical studies when sampling error is neglected. Second, we presented a space-state modelling approach that explicitly accounts for sampling error when quantifying population synchrony. Third, we exemplify our approach with datasets for which sampling variance (i) has been previously estimated, and (ii) has to be jointly estimated with population synchrony. Finally, we compared our results to those of a standard approach neglecting sampling variance. We showed that ignoring sampling variance can mask a synchrony pattern whatever its true value and that the common practice of averaging few replicates of population size estimates poorly performed at decreasing the bias of the classical estimator of the synchrony strength.Conclusion/significanceThe state-space model used in this study provides a flexible way of accurately quantifying the strength of synchrony patterns from most population size data encountered in field studies, including over-dispersed count data. We provided a user-friendly R-program and a tutorial example to encourage further studies aiming at quantifying the strength of population synchrony to account for uncertainty in population size estimates.
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Project description:Time series analysis of fMRI data is an important area of medical statistics for neuroimaging data. Spatial models and Bayesian approaches for inference in such models have advantages over more traditional mass univariate approaches; however, a major challenge for such analyses is the required computation. As a result, the neuroimaging community has embraced approximate Bayesian inference based on mean-field variational Bayes (VB) approximations. These approximations are implemented in standard software packages such as the popular statistical parametric mapping software. While computationally efficient, the quality of VB approximations remains unclear even though they are commonly used in the analysis of neuroimaging data. For reliable statistical inference, it is important that these approximations be accurate and that users understand the scenarios under which they may not be accurate. We consider this issue for a particular model that includes spatially varying coefficients. To examine the accuracy of the VB approximation, we derive Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) for this model and conduct simulation studies to compare its performance with VB in terms of estimation accuracy, posterior variability, the spatial smoothness of estimated images, and computation time. As expected, we find that the computation time required for VB is considerably less than that for HMC. In settings involving a high or moderate signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), we find that the 2 approaches produce very similar results suggesting that the VB approximation is useful in this setting. On the other hand, when one considers a low SNR, substantial differences are found, suggesting that the approximation may not be accurate in such cases and we demonstrate that VB produces Bayes estimators with larger mean squared error. A comparison of the 2 computational approaches in an application examining the hemodynamic response to face perception in addition to a comparison with the traditional mass univariate approach in this application is also considered. Overall, our work clarifies the usefulness of VB for the spatiotemporal analysis of fMRI data, while also pointing out the limitation of VB when the SNR is low and the utility of HMC in this case.
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Project description:This study assesses two alternative approaches for investigating linear and nonlinear lagged associations in environmental time series data, comparing through simulations simple methods based on moving average summaries with more flexible distributed lag linear and nonlinear models. Results indicate that the latter provide estimates with no or low bias and close-to-nominal confidence intervals, even for long-lagged associations and in the presence of strong seasonal trends. Moving average models represent a viable alternative only in the presence of relatively short lag periods, and when the lag interval is correctly specified. In contrast, the use of moving averages to roughly approximate long and complex lag patterns, or the specification of an interval different than the actual lag period, can result in substantial biases. More flexible approaches based on distributed lag linear or nonlinear models provide noteworthy advantages, in particular when complex lagged associations are assumed.
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Project description:MotivationSimple bioinformatic tools are frequently used to analyse time-series datasets regardless of their ability to deal with transient phenomena, limiting the meaningful information that may be extracted from them. This situation requires the development and exploitation of tailor-made, easy-to-use and flexible tools designed specifically for the analysis of time-series datasets.ResultsWe present a novel statistical application called CLUSTERnGO, which uses a model-based clustering algorithm that fulfils this need. This algorithm involves two components of operation. Component 1 constructs a Bayesian non-parametric model (Infinite Mixture of Piecewise Linear Sequences) and Component 2, which applies a novel clustering methodology (Two-Stage Clustering). The software can also assign biological meaning to the identified clusters using an appropriate ontology. It applies multiple hypothesis testing to report the significance of these enrichments. The algorithm has a four-phase pipeline. The application can be executed using either command-line tools or a user-friendly Graphical User Interface. The latter has been developed to address the needs of both specialist and non-specialist users. We use three diverse test cases to demonstrate the flexibility of the proposed strategy. In all cases, CLUSTERnGO not only outperformed existing algorithms in assigning unique GO term enrichments to the identified clusters, but also revealed novel insights regarding the biological systems examined, which were not uncovered in the original publications.Availability and implementationThe C++ and QT source codes, the GUI applications for Windows, OS X and Linux operating systems and user manual are freely available for download under the GNU GPL v3 license at http://www.cmpe.boun.edu.tr/content/CnG.Contactsgo24@cam.ac.ukSupplementary informationSupplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.
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Project description:Oligonucleotides are key elements of nucleic acid therapeutics such as small interfering RNAs (siRNAs). Influenza and Ebolaviruses are zoonotic RNA viruses mutating very rapidly, and their sequence changes must be characterized intensively to design therapeutic oligonucleotides with long utility. Focusing on a total of 182 experimentally validated siRNAs for influenza A, B and Ebolaviruses compiled by the siRNA database, we conducted time-series analyses of occurrences of siRNA targets in these viral genomes. Reflecting their high mutation rates, occurrences of target oligonucleotides evidently fluctuate in viral populations and often disappear. Time-series analysis of the one-base changed sequences derived from each original target identified the oligonucleotide that shows a compensatory increase and will potentially become the 'awaiting-type oligonucleotide'; the combined use of this oligonucleotide with the original can provide therapeutics with long utility. This strategy is also useful for assigning diagnostic reverse transcription-PCR primers with long utility.
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Project description:Numerical investigations are an important research tool in quantum information theory. There already exists a wide range of computational tools for quantum information theory implemented in various programming languages. However, there is little effort in implementing this kind of tools in the Julia language. Julia is a modern programming language designed for numerical computation with excellent support for vector and matrix algebra, extended type system that allows for implementation of elegant application interfaces and support for parallel and distributed computing. QuantumInformation.jl is a new quantum information theory library implemented in Julia that provides functions for creating and analyzing quantum states, and for creating quantum operations in various representations. An additional feature of the library is a collection of functions for sampling random quantum states and operations such as unitary operations and generic quantum channels.
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Project description:High-quality ground observation networks are an important basis for scientific research. Here, an automatic soil observation network for high-resolution satellite applications in China (SONTE-China) was established to measure both pixel- and multilayer-based soil moisture and temperature. SONTE-China is distributed across 17 field observation stations with a variety of ecosystems, covering both dry and wet zones. In this paper, the average root mean squared error (RMSE) of station-based soil moisture for well-characterized SONTE-China sites is 0.027 m3/m3 (0.014~0.057 m3/m3) following calibration for specific soil properties. The temporal and spatial characteristics of the observed soil moisture and temperature in SONTE-China conform to the geographical location, seasonality and rainfall of each station. The time series Sentinel-1 C-band radar signal and soil moisture show strong correlations, and the RMSE of the estimated soil moisture from radar data was lower than 0.05 m3/m3 for the Guyuan and Minqin stations. SONTE-China is a soil moisture retrieval algorithm that can validate soil moisture products and provide basic data for weather forecasting, flood forecasting, agricultural drought monitoring and water resource management.
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Project description:Missing observations are common in time series data and several methods are available to impute these values prior to analysis. Variation in statistical characteristics of univariate time series can have a profound effect on characteristics of missing observations and, therefore, the accuracy of different imputation methods. The imputeTestbench package can be used to compare the prediction accuracy of different methods as related to the amount and type of missing data for a user-supplied dataset. Missing data are simulated by removing observations completely at random or in blocks of different sizes depending on characteristics of the data. Several imputation algorithms are included with the package that vary from simple replacement with means to more complex interpolation methods. The testbench is not limited to the default functions and users can add or remove methods as needed. Plotting functions also allow comparative visualization of the behavior and effectiveness of different algorithms. We present example applications that demonstrate how the package can be used to understand differences in prediction accuracy between methods as affected by characteristics of a dataset and the nature of missing data.
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Project description:MotivationThe widespread adoption of RNA-seq to quantitatively measure gene expression has increased the scope of sequencing experimental designs to include time-course experiments. maSigPro is an R package specifically suited for the analysis of time-course gene expression data, which was developed originally for microarrays and hence was limited in its application to count data.ResultsWe have updated maSigPro to support RNA-seq time series analysis by introducing generalized linear models in the algorithm to support the modeling of count data while maintaining the traditional functionalities of the package. We show a good performance of the maSigPro-GLM method in several simulated time-course scenarios and in a real experimental dataset.Availability and implementationThe package is freely available under the LGPL license from the Bioconductor Web site (http://bioconductor.org).
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