Effects of COVID-19 Vaccination Timing and Risk Prioritization on Mortality Rates, United States.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Wang X
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8237869 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Assessing the effects of early non-pharmaceutical interventions1-5 on COVID-19 spread in the United States is crucial for understanding and planning future control measures to combat the ongoing pandemic6-10. Here we use county-level observations of reported infections and deaths11, in conjunction with human mobility data12 and a metapopulation transmission model13,14, to quantify changes of disease transmission rates in US counties from March 15, 2020 to May 3, 2020. We find significant reductions of the basic reproductive numbers in major metropolitan areas in association with social distancing and other control measures. Counterfactual simulations indicate that, had these same control measures been implemented just 1-2 weeks earlier, a substantial number of cases and deaths could have been averted. Specifically, nationwide, 61.6% [95% CI: 54.6%-67.7%] of reported infections and 55.0% [95% CI: 46.1%-62.2%] of reported deaths as of May 3, 2020 could have been avoided if the same control measures had been implemented just one week earlier. We also examine the effects of delays in re-implementing social distancing following a relaxation of control measures. A longer response time results in a stronger rebound of infections and death. Our findings underscore the importance of early intervention and aggressive response in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic.
| S-EPMC7273294 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Assessing the effects of early nonpharmaceutical interventions on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread is crucial for understanding and planning future control measures to combat the pandemic. We use observations of reported infections and deaths, human mobility data, and a metapopulation transmission model to quantify changes in disease transmission rates in U.S. counties from 15 March to 3 May 2020. We find that marked, asynchronous reductions of the basic reproductive number occurred throughout the United States in association with social distancing and other control measures. Counterfactual simulations indicate that, had these same measures been implemented 1 to 2 weeks earlier, substantial cases and deaths could have been averted and that delayed responses to future increased incidence will facilitate a stronger rebound of infections and death. Our findings underscore the importance of early intervention and aggressive control in combatting the COVID-19 pandemic.
| S-EPMC7821895 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionately impacted Americans in socially vulnerable areas. Unfortunately, these groups are also experiencing lower vaccination rates. To understand how strategic vaccine site placement may benefit high vulnerability populations, we extracted vaccine site locations for 26 U.S. states and linked these data to county-level adult vaccination rates and the CDC 2018 Social Vulnerability Index rankings. We fit quasi-Poisson regression models to compare vaccine site density between the highest and lowest SVI domain quartiles, and assessed whether greater vaccine site density mediated or modified the relationship between social vulnerability and vaccination rates. We found that high vulnerability counties by socioeconomic status had more vaccine sites per 10,000 residents, yet this higher vaccine site density did not reduce socioeconomic disparities in vaccination rates. Persistent vaccination inequities may reflect other structural barriers to access. Our results suggest that targeted vaccine site placement in high vulnerability counties may be necessary but insufficient for the goal of widespread, equitable vaccination.
| S-EPMC8450273 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundShortly after the 2020 US election, initial evidence on first-generation COVID-19 vaccines showed 70-95% efficacy and minimal risks. Yet, many US adults expressed reluctance.AimsThe aim of this study was to compare persons willing and unwilling to be vaccinated against COVID-19 and to estimate the effects of vaccination attributes on uptake: proof of vaccination, vaccination setting, effectiveness, duration of immunity, and risk of severe side effects.MethodBetween 9 and 11 November 2020, 1153 US adults completed a discrete choice experiment (DCE) on Phase 2 of the CDC Vaccination Program (August 2021). Each of its eight choice tasks had three vaccination alternatives and "no vaccination for 6 months." An opt-out inflated logit model was estimated to test for respondent differences and attribute effects.ResultsRespondent demographics were unrelated to one's willingness to be vaccinated (p value 0.533), but those with less education were more likely to be unwilling (p < 0.001). Among those willing, uptake ranged from 61.70 to 97.75%, depending on the vaccination attributes. Effectiveness and safety had the largest effects. Offering proof of vaccination and a choice of setting increased uptake as much as increasing immunity from 3 to 6 months.ConclusionsTo maximize uptake, the CDC Program should standardize proof of vaccination and offer a choice of setting, instead of a one-size-fits-all approach. If the first-generation vaccines are efficacious, widely available, and free, overall predicted uptake is 68.81% by the end of Phase 2 (August 2021), which is well below the 75-90% needed for herd immunity. Further health preference research is necessary to uncover and address unwillingness and reluctance to vaccinate against COVID-19.
| S-EPMC8008018 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background:The novel human coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has claimed more than 240,000 lives worldwide, causing tremendous public health, social, and economic damages. While the risk factors of COVID-19 are still under investigation, environmental factors, such as urban air pollution, may play an important role in increasing population susceptibility to COVID-19 pathogenesis. Methods:We conducted a cross-sectional nationwide study using zero-inflated negative binomial models to estimate the association between long-term (2010-2016) county-level exposures to NO2, PM2.5 and O3 and county-level COVID-19 case-fatality and mortality rates in the US. We used both single and multipollutant models and controlled for spatial trends and a comprehensive set of potential confounders, including state-level test positive rate, county-level healthcare capacity, phase-of-epidemic, population mobility, sociodemographic, socioeconomic status, behavior risk factors, and meteorological factors. Results:1,027,799 COVID-19 cases and 58,489 deaths were reported in 3,122 US counties from January 22, 2020 to April 29, 2020, with an overall observed case-fatality rate of 5.8%. Spatial variations were observed for both COVID-19 death outcomes and long-term ambient air pollutant levels. County-level average NO2 concentrations were positively associated with both COVID-19 case-fatality rate and mortality rate in single-, bi-, and tri-pollutant models (p-values<0.05). Per inter-quartile range (IQR) increase in NO2 (4.6 ppb), COVID-19 case-fatality rate and mortality rate were associated with an increase of 7.1% (95% CI 1.2% to 13.4%) and 11.2% (95% CI 3.4% to 19.5%), respectively. We did not observe significant associations between long-term exposures to PM2.5 or O3 and COVID-19 death outcomes (p-values>0.05), although per IQR increase in PM2.5 (3.4 ug/m3) was marginally associated with 10.8% (95% CI: -1.1% to 24.1%) increase in COVID-19 mortality rate. Discussions and Conclusions:Long-term exposure to NO2, which largely arises from urban combustion sources such as traffic, may enhance susceptibility to severe COVID-19 outcomes, independent of long-term PM2.5 and O3 exposure. The results support targeted public health actions to protect residents from COVID-19 in heavily polluted regions with historically high NO2 levels. Moreover, continuation of current efforts to lower traffic emissions and ambient air pollution levels may be an important component of reducing population-level risk of COVID-19 deaths.
| S-EPMC7273261 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe novel human coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has claimed more than 600,000 lives worldwide, causing tremendous public health, social, and economic damages. Although the risk factors of COVID-19 are still under investigation, environmental factors, such as urban air pollution, may play an important role in increasing population susceptibility to COVID-19 pathogenesis.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional nationwide study using zero-inflated negative binomial models to estimate the association between long-term (2010-2016) county-level exposures to NO2, PM2.5, and O3 and county-level COVID-19 case-fatality and mortality rates in the United States. We used both single- and multi-pollutant models and controlled for spatial trends and a comprehensive set of potential confounders, including state-level test positive rate, county-level health care capacity, phase of epidemic, population mobility, population density, sociodemographics, socioeconomic status, race and ethnicity, behavioral risk factors, and meteorology.ResultsFrom January 22, 2020, to July 17, 2020, 3,659,828 COVID-19 cases and 138,552 deaths were reported in 3,076 US counties, with an overall observed case-fatality rate of 3.8%. County-level average NO2 concentrations were positively associated with both COVID-19 case-fatality rate and mortality rate in single-, bi-, and tri-pollutant models. When adjusted for co-pollutants, per interquartile-range (IQR) increase in NO2 (4.6 ppb), COVID-19 case-fatality rate and mortality rate were associated with an increase of 11.3% (95% CI 4.9%-18.2%) and 16.2% (95% CI 8.7%-24.0%), respectively. We did not observe significant associations between COVID-19 case-fatality rate and long-term exposure to PM2.5 or O3, although per IQR increase in PM2.5 (2.6 μg/m3) was marginally associated, with a 14.9% (95% CI 0.0%-31.9%) increase in COVID-19 mortality rate when adjusted for co-pollutants.DiscussionLong-term exposure to NO2, which largely arises from urban combustion sources such as traffic, may enhance susceptibility to severe COVID-19 outcomes, independent of long-term PM2.5 and O3 exposure. The results support targeted public health actions to protect residents from COVID-19 in heavily polluted regions with historically high NO2 levels. Continuation of current efforts to lower traffic emissions and ambient air pollution may be an important component of reducing population-level risk of COVID-19 case fatality and mortality.
| S-EPMC7505160 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPopulation-level vaccine efficacy is a critical component of understanding COVID-19 risk, informing public health policy, and mitigating disease impacts. Unlike individual-level clinical trials, population-level analysis characterizes how well vaccines worked in the face of real-world challenges like emerging variants, differing mobility patterns, and policy changes.MethodsIn this study, we analyze the association between time-dependent vaccination rates and COVID-19 health outcomes for 48 U.S. states. We primarily focus on case-hospitalization risk (CHR) as the outcome of interest, using it as a population-level proxy for disease burden on healthcare systems. Performing the analysis using Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) allowed us to incorporate real-world nonlinearities and control for critical dynamic (time-changing) and static (temporally constant) factors. Dynamic factors include testing rates, activity-related engagement levels in the population, underlying population immunity, and policy. Static factors incorporate comorbidities, social vulnerability, race, and state healthcare expenditures. We used SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance data to model the different COVID-19 variant-driven waves separately, and evaluate if there is a changing role of the potential drivers of health outcomes across waves.ResultsOur study revealed a strong and statistically significant negative association between vaccine uptake and COVID-19 CHR across each variant wave, with boosters providing additional protection during the Omicron wave. Higher underlying population immunity is shown to be associated with reduced COVID-19 CHR. Additionally, more stringent government policies are generally associated with decreased CHR. However, the impact of activity-related engagement levels on COVID-19 health outcomes varied across different waves. Regarding static variables, the social vulnerability index consistently exhibits positive associations with CHR, while Medicaid spending per person consistently shows a negative association. However, the impacts of other static factors vary in magnitude and significance across different waves.ConclusionsThis study concludes that despite the emergence of new variants, vaccines remain highly correlated with reduced COVID-19 harm. Therefore, given the ongoing threat posed by COVID-19, vaccines remain a critical line of defense for protecting the public and reducing the burden on healthcare systems.
| S-EPMC10797940 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background On Dec 14, 2020, the United States initiated a nationwide COVID-19 vaccination campaign. Demonstrating clear population-level impact following vaccine introduction helps to further elucidate and quantify the public-health benefits of vaccination. Methods Using a negative binomial regression model we evaluated the ecological association between county-level COVID-19 vaccine uptake and rates of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the United States from April 1, 2021 through October 31, 2021 controlling for a broad set of county-level environmental, sociodemographic, economic, and health-status-related characteristics. County-level data were obtained from several publicly available databases that were merged for analysis. Findings After adjustment for county-level characteristics, US counties with ≥ 80% of their residents ≥ 12 years of age fully vaccinated against COVID-19 had 30% (95% CI: 25−35; P < .001) and 46% (38−52; P < .001) lower rates of COVID-19 cases and deaths, respectively, versus those with <50% coverage (reference group). A dose response was observed: counties with 70−79% uptake had 20% (95% CI: 16−24; P < .001) and 35% (29−40; P < .001) lower rates of cases and deaths, respectively; counties with 60−69% uptake had 8% (5−11; P < .001) and 20% (15−24; P < .001) lower rates; and counties with 50−59% uptake had 2% (0−4; P =.09) and 8% (4−12; P < .001) lower rates. Restricting the analysis to the period when the Delta variant was predominant (June 1, 2021 ‒ October 31, 2021) showed similar findings. Interpretation Our results showed that US counties with higher proportions of persons ≥ 12 years of age fully vaccinated against COVID-19 had substantially lower rates of COVID-19 cases and deaths—a finding that showed dose response and persisted even in the period when Delta was predominant. Funding Pfizer.
| S-EPMC8802692 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundBlack populations in the United States are being disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, but the increased mortality burden after accounting for health and other demographic characteristics is not well understood. We examined characteristics of individuals who died from COVID-19 in Michigan by race stratified by their age, sex and comorbidity prevalence to illustrate and understand this disparity in mortality risk.MethodsWe evaluate COVID-19 mortality in Michigan by demographic and health characteristics, using individual-level linked death certificate and surveillance data collected by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services from March 16 to October 26, 2020. We identified differences in demographics and comorbidity prevalence across race among individuals who died from COVID-19 and calculated mortality rates by age, sex, race, and number of comorbidities.FindingsAmong the 6,065 COVID-19 related deaths in Michigan, Black individuals are experiencing 3·6 times the mortality rate of White individuals (p<0.001), with a mortality rate for Black individuals under 65 years without comorbidities that is 12·6 times that of their White counterparts (p<0.001). After accounting for age, race, sex, and number of comorbidities, we find that Black individuals in all strata are at higher risk of COVID-19 mortality than their White counterparts.InterpretationOur findings demonstrate that Black populations are disproportionately burdened by COVID-19 mortality, even after accounting for demographic and underlying health characteristics. We highlight how disparities across race, which result from systemic racism, are compounded in crises.FundingASP, AP and APG were funded by NSF Expeditions grant 1918784, NIH grant 1R01AI151176-01, NSF Rapid Response Research for COVID-19 grant RAPID-2027755, and the Notsew Orm Sands Foundation. MCF was supported by NIH grant K01AI141576.
| S-EPMC7933264 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic continues to ravage the world, with the United States being highly affected. A vaccine provides the best hope for a permanent solution to controlling the pandemic. However, to be effective, a vaccine must be accepted and used by a large majority of the population. The aim of this study was to understand the attitudes towards and obstacles facing vaccination with a potential COVID-19 vaccine. To measure these attitudes a survey was administered to 316 respondents across the United States by a survey corporation. Structural equation modeling was used to analyze the relationships of several factors with attitudes toward potential COVID-19 vaccination. Prior vaccine usage and attitudes predicted attitudes towards COVID-19 vaccination. Assessment of the severity of COVID-19 for the United States was also predictive. Approximately 68% of all respondents were supportive of being vaccinated for COVID-19, but side effects, efficacy and length of testing remained concerns. Longer testing, increased efficacy and development in the United States were significantly associated with increased vaccine acceptance. Messages promoting COVID-19 vaccination should seek to alleviate the concerns of those who are already vaccine-hesitant. Messaging directed at the benefits of vaccination for the United States as a country would address the second predictive factor. Enough time should be taken to allay concerns about both short- and long-term side effects before a vaccine is released.
| S-EPMC7711655 | biostudies-literature