Impact of the COVID-19 Epidemic: Scenario in a Tropical Environment.
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ABSTRACT: Supplementary information
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00024-021-02793-0.
SUBMITTER: Sharma S
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8241406 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Maxillofacial departments in 23 surgical units in Italy have been increasingly involved in facing the COVID-19 emergency. Elective surgeries have been progressively postponed to free up beds and offer human and material resources to those infected. We compiled an inventory of 32 questions to evaluate the impact of the SARS-COV2 epidemic on maxillofacial surgery in 23 selected Italian maxillofacial departments. The questionnaire focused on three different aspects: the variation of the workload, showing both a reduction of the number of team members (-16% among specialists, -11% among residents) due to reallocation or contamination and a consistent reduction of elective activities (the number of outpatient visits cancelled during the first month of the COVID-19 epidemic was about 10 000 all over Italy), while only tumour surgery and trauma surgery has been widely guaranteed; the screening procedures on patients and physicians (22% of maxillofacial units found infected surgeons, which is 4% of all maxillofacial surgeons); and the availability of Personal Protective Equipment, is only considered to be partial in 48% of Maxillofacial departments. This emergency has forced those of us in the Italian health system to change the way we work, but only time will prove if these changes have been effective.
| S-EPMC7196423 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change impacts also struck by the COVID-19 pandemic. The lockdown measures were ineffective with no sign of flattening the curve. Therefore, the high risk of transmission is evident with an increasing number of affected people. Under this circumstance, a multiple hazards scenario can be developed in this country due to climatic hazards such as cyclones, floods, landslides, heat waves, and the outbreak of infectious diseases such as dengue, cholera, and diarrhoea. The country experiences simultaneously the global pandemic, exceptionally prolonged flood along with the recovery stage from the damages due to the cyclone (Amphan). Therefore, these multiple factors have been putting pressure on losing millions of homes, livelihoods, and agricultural crops. This study aimed to assess the potential impact of a simultaneous strike of climatic hazards and infectious disease outbreaks and their possible strategic management in Bangladesh under different scenarios. A mixed methodological approach was followed in this study including a questionnaire survey, in-depth discussion with experts, and extensive literature review to assess the multi-hazard scenario in a resource-limited setting with high population density. A set of statistical techniques were used to analyze the responses (n = 1590) from different social groups (healthcare professionals, academicians, students, Government and NGO officials, and businessman) under three scenarios. The results revealed the high possibility of aggravating the impact of COVID-19 pandemic if there is a climatic hazard such as flood, cyclone have appeared. The majority of the respondents agreed that the situation will become more devastating if there is another outbreak of diseases such as dengue, cholera, and diarrhoea. The poor and fragile healthcare system of this country cannot bear such unprecedented pressure. The lack of risk assessment and communication, lack of sectoral coordination might restrict the contingency plan of the government. Therefore, considering the unprecedented worst cases a stringent strategic plan for emergency response, short term and long-term management should have to be formulated. Resilience building through proactive planning and implementation of integrated, inclusive and sustainable strategies will be effective to ensure the health and socio-economic security for multi-hazard threats in the country.
| S-EPMC7561529 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background:In India, the SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 epidemic has grown to 1251 cases and 32 deaths as on 30 Mar 2020. The healthcare impact of the epidemic in India was studied using a stochastic mathematical model. Methods:A compartmental SEIR model was developed, in which the flow of individuals through compartments is modeled using a set of differential equations. Different scenarios were modeled with 1000 runs of Monte Carlo simulation each using MATLAB. Hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) requirements, and deaths were modeled on SimVoi software. The impact of nonpharmacological interventions (NPIs) including social distancing and lockdown on checking the epidemic was estimated. Results:Uninterrupted epidemic in India would have resulted in more than 364 million cases and 1.56 million deaths with peak by mid-July. As per the model, at current growth rate of 1.15, India is likely to reach approximately 3 million cases by 25 May, implying 125,455 (±18,034) hospitalizations, 26,130 (±3298) ICU admissions, and 13,447 (±1819) deaths. This would overwhelm India's healthcare system. The model shows that with immediate institution of NPIs, the epidemic might still be checked by mid-April 2020. It would then result in 241,974 (±33,735) total infections, 10,214 (±1649) hospitalizations, 2121 (±334) ICU admissions, and 1081 (±169) deaths. Conclusion:At the current growth rate of epidemic, India's healthcare resources will be overwhelmed by the end of May. With the immediate institution of NPIs, total cases, hospitalizations, ICU requirements, and deaths can be reduced by almost 90%.
| S-EPMC7126697 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The COVID-19 epidemic was reported in the Hubei province in China in December 2019 and then spread around the world reaching the pandemic stage at the beginning of March 2020. Since then, several countries went into lockdown. Using a mechanistic-statistical formalism, we estimate the effect of the lockdown in France on the contact rate and the effective reproduction number R e of the COVID-19. We obtain a reduction by a factor 7 (R e = 0.47, 95%-CI: 0.45-0.50), compared to the estimates carried out in France at the early stage of the epidemic. We also estimate the fraction of the population that would be infected by the beginning of May, at the official date at which the lockdown should be relaxed. We find a fraction of 3.7% (95%-CI: 3.0-4.8%) of the total French population, without taking into account the number of recovered individuals before April 1st, which is not known. This proportion is seemingly too low to reach herd immunity. Thus, even if the lockdown strongly mitigated the first epidemic wave, keeping a low value of R e is crucial to avoid an uncontrolled second wave (initiated with much more infectious cases than the first wave) and to hence avoid the saturation of hospital facilities.
| S-EPMC7290065 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn response to the COVID-19 epidemic, China implemented a series of interventions that impacted tuberculosis (TB) control in the country.MethodsBased on routine surveillance data and questionnaires, the study analyzed TB notification, follow-up examinations, and treatment outcomes. The data were split into three phases in relation to outbreak, lockdown and reopen when the nationwide COVID-19 response started in 2020: control (11 weeks prior), intensive (11 weeks during and immediately after), and regular (4 additional weeks). Data from 2017-2019 were used as baseline.FindingsThe notified number of TB patients decreased sharply in the 1st week of the intensive period but took significantly longer to rebound in 2020 compared with baseline. The percentages of TB patients undergoing sputum examination within one week after 2 months treatment and full treatment course in the intensive period were most affected and decreased by 8% in comparison with control period. 75•2% (221/294) of counties reallocated CDC and primary health care workers to fight the COVID-19 epidemic, 26•9% (725/2694) of TB patients had postponed or missed their follow-up examinations due to travel restrictions and fear of contracting COVID-19.InterpretationIn the short term, the COVID-19 epidemic mostly affected TB notification and follow-up examinations in China, which may lead to a surge of demand for TB services in the near future. To cope with this future challenge, an emergency response mechanism for TB should be established.FundingNational Health Commission of China-Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation TB Collaboration project (OPP1137180).
| S-EPMC7511841 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Phase-wise variations in different aerosol (BC, AOD, PM1, PM2.5 and PM10), radiation (direct and diffused) and trace gases (NO, NO2, CO, O3, SO2, CO2 and CH4) and their associated chemistry during the COVID-19 lockdown have been investigated over a tropical rural site Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E), India. Unlike most of the other reported studies on COVID-19 lockdown, this study provides variations over a unique tropical rural environment located at a scientifically strategic location in the Southern Indian peninsula. Striking differences in the time series and diurnal variability have been observed in different phases of the lockdown. The levels of most species that are primarily emitted from anthropogenic activities reduced significantly during the lockdown which also impacted the levels and diurnal variability of secondary species like O3. When compared with the same periods in 2019, short-lived trace gas species such as NO, NO2, SO2 which have direct anthropogenic emission influence have shown the reduction over 50%, whereas species like CO and O3 which have direct as well as indirect impacts of anthropogenic emissions have shown reductions up to 10%. Long-lived species (CO2 and CH4) have shown negligible difference (<1%). BC and AOD have shown reductions over 20%. Particulate Matter (1, 2.5 and 10) reductions have been in the range of 40 to 50% when compared to the pre-lockdown period. The changes in shortwave downward radiation at the surface, diffuse component due to the scattering and diffuse fraction have been +2.2%, -4.1% and -2.4%, respectively, in comparison with 2019. In contrast with the studies over urban environments, air quality category over the rural environment remained same during the lockdown despite reduction in pollutants level. All the variations observed for different species and their associated chemistry provides an excellent demonstration of rural atmospheric chemistry and its intrinsic links with the precursor concentrations and dynamics.
| S-EPMC7831994 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe pandemic of COVID-19 has occurred close on the heels of a global resurgence of measles. In 2019, an unprecedented epidemic of measles affected Samoa, requiring a state of emergency to be declared. Measles causes an immune amnesia which can persist for over 2 years after acute infection and increases the risk of a range of other infections.MethodsWe modelled the potential impact of measles-induced immune amnesia on a COVID-19 epidemic in Samoa using data on measles incidence in 2018-2019, population data and a hypothetical COVID-19 epidemic.ResultsThe young population structure and contact matrix in Samoa results in the most transmission occurring in young people < 20 years old. The highest rate of death is the 60+ years old, but a smaller peak in death may occur in younger people, with more than 15% of total deaths in the age group under 20 years old. Measles induced immune amnesia could increase the total number of cases by 8% and deaths by more than 2%.ConclusionsSamoa, which had large measles epidemics in 2019-2020 should focus on rapidly achieving high rates of measles vaccination and enhanced surveillance for COVID-19, as the impact may be more severe due to measles-induced immune paresis. This applies to other severely measles-affected countries in the Pacific, Europe and elsewhere.
| S-EPMC7539273 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe impact of variable infection risk by race and ethnicity on the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 spread is largely unknown.MethodsHere, we fit structured compartmental models to seroprevalence data from New York State and analyze how herd immunity thresholds (HITs), final sizes, and epidemic risk change across groups.ResultsA simple model where interactions occur proportionally to contact rates reduced the HIT, but more realistic models of preferential mixing within groups increased the threshold toward the value observed in homogeneous populations. Across all models, the burden of infection fell disproportionately on minority populations: in a model fit to Long Island serosurvey and census data, 81% of Hispanics or Latinos were infected when the HIT was reached compared to 34% of non-Hispanic whites.ConclusionsOur findings, which are meant to be illustrative and not best estimates, demonstrate how racial and ethnic disparities can impact epidemic trajectories and result in unequal distributions of SARS-CoV-2 infection.FundingK.C.M. was supported by National Science Foundation GRFP grant DGE1745303. Y.H.G. and M.L. were funded by the Morris-Singer Foundation. M.L. was supported by SeroNet cooperative agreement U01 CA261277.
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Project description:Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused strain on health systems worldwide due to its high mortality rate and the large portion of cases requiring critical care and mechanical ventilation. During these uncertain times, public health decision makers, from city health departments to federal agencies, sought the use of epidemiological models for decision support in allocating resources, developing non-pharmaceutical interventions, and characterizing the dynamics of COVID-19 in their jurisdictions. In response, we developed a flexible scenario modeling pipeline that could quickly tailor models for decision makers seeking to compare projections of epidemic trajectories and healthcare impacts from multiple intervention scenarios in different locations. Here, we present the components and configurable features of the COVID Scenario Pipeline, with a vignette detailing its current use. We also present model limitations and active areas of development to meet ever-changing decision maker needs.
| S-EPMC8024322 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The incredible spread rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has shocked the world. More than ever before, this dramatic scenario proved the significance of diagnostics as a cornerstone to make life-saving decisions. In this context, novel diagnostics that generates smart data leading to superior strategies for treatment, control, surveillance, prediction, prevention, and management of pandemic diseases is vital. Herein, we discuss the characteristics that should be met by COVID-19 diagnostics to become smart diagnostics enabled by industry 4.0 especially Internet of Things (IoT). The challenges ahead and our recommendations for moving faster from pure diagnostics toward smart diagnostics of COVID-19 and other possible epidemic/pandemic diseases are also outlined. An IoT-Fog-Cloud model based on smartphones as IoT gateways for smart diagnostics with unified strategies for data collection/transmission/interpretation is also proposed to integrate new digital technologies into a single platform for smarter decisions. Last but not least, we believe that "smart diagnostics" is a perspective that should be realized sooner before we encounter a pandemic far worse than the present one.
| S-EPMC8247766 | biostudies-literature