Impact of the COVID-19 Epidemic: Scenario in a Tropical Environment.
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ABSTRACT: Supplementary information
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00024-021-02793-0.
SUBMITTER: Sharma S
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8241406 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Maxillofacial departments in 23 surgical units in Italy have been increasingly involved in facing the COVID-19 emergency. Elective surgeries have been progressively postponed to free up beds and offer human and material resources to those infected. We compiled an inventory of 32 questions to evaluate the impact of the SARS-COV2 epidemic on maxillofacial surgery in 23 selected Italian maxillofacial departments. The questionnaire focused on three different aspects: the variation of the workload, showing both a reduction of the number of team members (-16% among specialists, -11% among residents) due to reallocation or contamination and a consistent reduction of elective activities (the number of outpatient visits cancelled during the first month of the COVID-19 epidemic was about 10 000 all over Italy), while only tumour surgery and trauma surgery has been widely guaranteed; the screening procedures on patients and physicians (22% of maxillofacial units found infected surgeons, which is 4% of all maxillofacial surgeons); and the availability of Personal Protective Equipment, is only considered to be partial in 48% of Maxillofacial departments. This emergency has forced those of us in the Italian health system to change the way we work, but only time will prove if these changes have been effective.
| S-EPMC7196423 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceCOVID-19 continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear.ObjectiveTo project COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths from April 2023-April 2025 under two plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and three possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no vaccine recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65+, vaccination for all eligible groups).DesignThe COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023-April 15, 2025 under six scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. State and national projections from eight modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario.SettingThe entire United States.ParticipantsNone.ExposureAnnually reformulated vaccines assumed to be 65% effective against strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age and state specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster.Main outcomes and measuresEnsemble estimates of weekly and cumulative COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths. Expected relative and absolute reductions in hospitalizations and deaths due to vaccination over the projection period.ResultsFrom April 15, 2023-April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November-January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% PI: 1,438,000-4,270,000) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI: 139,000-461,000) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% CI: 104,000-355,000) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI: 12,000-54,000) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI: 29,000-69,000) fewer deaths.Conclusion and relevanceCOVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming two years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease.
| S-EPMC10635209 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and objectiveDuring 2020, the only instruments for fighting against the pandemic peaks were lockdowns, physical distancing, closure of schools and non-essential businesses, and travel restrictions. The new vaccination strategy adopted in Italy in 2021 represented a new perspective for policymakers.ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to estimate the effects of the national immunisation strategy for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy on the national healthcare system.MethodsAn epidemiological scenario analysis was developed in order to simulate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Italian national healthcare system in 2021. Hospitalisations, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and death rates were modelled based on 2020 data. Costs were estimated using hospital admissions from the Policlinico of Tor Vergata Hospital in Rome. Two scenarios were tested, one with vaccination and the second without.ResultsThe roll-out of vaccinations to protect against COVID-19 was estimated to prevent 52,115 deaths in 2021, 45.2% less than what was expected in the absence of immunisation. Based on the assumptions underlying the two epidemiological scenarios, our model predicted an overall reduction of 2.4 million hospital admissions and 259,000 ICU admissions (74.9% and 71.3% less, respectively, than the world without vaccinations between June and December 2021). Overall, in Italy, the model estimated over €3.0 billion costs of hospitalisations due to COVID-19 in 2020. In 2021, vaccines prevented around 36% of the overall costs.ConclusionsThis is the first study highlighting the effect of vaccines on the Italian healthcare system in terms of avoided cases, hospitalisations and costs. Our results have the potential to inform policymakers and the general population on the benefits of vaccinations.
| S-EPMC8881093 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change impacts also struck by the COVID-19 pandemic. The lockdown measures were ineffective with no sign of flattening the curve. Therefore, the high risk of transmission is evident with an increasing number of affected people. Under this circumstance, a multiple hazards scenario can be developed in this country due to climatic hazards such as cyclones, floods, landslides, heat waves, and the outbreak of infectious diseases such as dengue, cholera, and diarrhoea. The country experiences simultaneously the global pandemic, exceptionally prolonged flood along with the recovery stage from the damages due to the cyclone (Amphan). Therefore, these multiple factors have been putting pressure on losing millions of homes, livelihoods, and agricultural crops. This study aimed to assess the potential impact of a simultaneous strike of climatic hazards and infectious disease outbreaks and their possible strategic management in Bangladesh under different scenarios. A mixed methodological approach was followed in this study including a questionnaire survey, in-depth discussion with experts, and extensive literature review to assess the multi-hazard scenario in a resource-limited setting with high population density. A set of statistical techniques were used to analyze the responses (n = 1590) from different social groups (healthcare professionals, academicians, students, Government and NGO officials, and businessman) under three scenarios. The results revealed the high possibility of aggravating the impact of COVID-19 pandemic if there is a climatic hazard such as flood, cyclone have appeared. The majority of the respondents agreed that the situation will become more devastating if there is another outbreak of diseases such as dengue, cholera, and diarrhoea. The poor and fragile healthcare system of this country cannot bear such unprecedented pressure. The lack of risk assessment and communication, lack of sectoral coordination might restrict the contingency plan of the government. Therefore, considering the unprecedented worst cases a stringent strategic plan for emergency response, short term and long-term management should have to be formulated. Resilience building through proactive planning and implementation of integrated, inclusive and sustainable strategies will be effective to ensure the health and socio-economic security for multi-hazard threats in the country.
| S-EPMC7561529 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The main contribution of this article is to report general statistics about COVID-19 in Brazil, based on analysis of accumulated series of confirmed cases, deaths and lethality rates, in addition to presenting graphs of moving averages for states and municipalities. The data show that the pandemic in Brazil has grown rapidly since February 25th (date of the first reported case). Furthermore, the lethality rate of COVID-19 in Brazil is greater than in many other Latin American countries (Chile, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay). However, the number of new confirmed cases in Brazil has little statistical relevance because only a small part of the population has been tested. In relation to Brazilian municipalities, we highlight the 10 states with the highest lethality rates, ranked from highest to lowest. Also, predictions about the increaseor decrease innew cases and deaths for states and capital cities are presented. These results can help managers and researchers to better guide their decisions regarding COVID-19.
| S-EPMC9759916 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background:In India, the SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 epidemic has grown to 1251 cases and 32 deaths as on 30 Mar 2020. The healthcare impact of the epidemic in India was studied using a stochastic mathematical model. Methods:A compartmental SEIR model was developed, in which the flow of individuals through compartments is modeled using a set of differential equations. Different scenarios were modeled with 1000 runs of Monte Carlo simulation each using MATLAB. Hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) requirements, and deaths were modeled on SimVoi software. The impact of nonpharmacological interventions (NPIs) including social distancing and lockdown on checking the epidemic was estimated. Results:Uninterrupted epidemic in India would have resulted in more than 364 million cases and 1.56 million deaths with peak by mid-July. As per the model, at current growth rate of 1.15, India is likely to reach approximately 3 million cases by 25 May, implying 125,455 (±18,034) hospitalizations, 26,130 (±3298) ICU admissions, and 13,447 (±1819) deaths. This would overwhelm India's healthcare system. The model shows that with immediate institution of NPIs, the epidemic might still be checked by mid-April 2020. It would then result in 241,974 (±33,735) total infections, 10,214 (±1649) hospitalizations, 2121 (±334) ICU admissions, and 1081 (±169) deaths. Conclusion:At the current growth rate of epidemic, India's healthcare resources will be overwhelmed by the end of May. With the immediate institution of NPIs, total cases, hospitalizations, ICU requirements, and deaths can be reduced by almost 90%.
| S-EPMC7126697 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Immigrant populations have been shown to display a disproportionately high mortality burden during the Covid-19 epidemic in some high-income countries. Individual civil registration data from Spain, one of the countries with the highest Covid-19 mortality in Europe, was used in order to characterize mortality during the Covid-19 epidemic for different immigrant groups. Individuals born in South America, Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia are shown to have suffered higher mortality impact than the native-born, particularly at working ages (40-59 years old), which could be due to higher proportions of immigrants from these regions among key workers. However, this disproportionate impact is not as high as found in other European countries, like France or Sweden. On the other hand, immigrants born in Europe show a relatively low mortality increment during the epidemic compared to the native-born. In addition, evidence is shown of a generalized and strong migrant mortality advantage for all non-European immigrant groups in Spain, that reduces or even reverses for some groups of countries of birth in 2020.
| S-EPMC9676914 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn response to the COVID-19 epidemic, China implemented a series of interventions that impacted tuberculosis (TB) control in the country.MethodsBased on routine surveillance data and questionnaires, the study analyzed TB notification, follow-up examinations, and treatment outcomes. The data were split into three phases in relation to outbreak, lockdown and reopen when the nationwide COVID-19 response started in 2020: control (11 weeks prior), intensive (11 weeks during and immediately after), and regular (4 additional weeks). Data from 2017-2019 were used as baseline.FindingsThe notified number of TB patients decreased sharply in the 1st week of the intensive period but took significantly longer to rebound in 2020 compared with baseline. The percentages of TB patients undergoing sputum examination within one week after 2 months treatment and full treatment course in the intensive period were most affected and decreased by 8% in comparison with control period. 75•2% (221/294) of counties reallocated CDC and primary health care workers to fight the COVID-19 epidemic, 26•9% (725/2694) of TB patients had postponed or missed their follow-up examinations due to travel restrictions and fear of contracting COVID-19.InterpretationIn the short term, the COVID-19 epidemic mostly affected TB notification and follow-up examinations in China, which may lead to a surge of demand for TB services in the near future. To cope with this future challenge, an emergency response mechanism for TB should be established.FundingNational Health Commission of China-Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation TB Collaboration project (OPP1137180).
| S-EPMC7511841 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The COVID-19 epidemic was reported in the Hubei province in China in December 2019 and then spread around the world reaching the pandemic stage at the beginning of March 2020. Since then, several countries went into lockdown. Using a mechanistic-statistical formalism, we estimate the effect of the lockdown in France on the contact rate and the effective reproduction number R e of the COVID-19. We obtain a reduction by a factor 7 (R e = 0.47, 95%-CI: 0.45-0.50), compared to the estimates carried out in France at the early stage of the epidemic. We also estimate the fraction of the population that would be infected by the beginning of May, at the official date at which the lockdown should be relaxed. We find a fraction of 3.7% (95%-CI: 3.0-4.8%) of the total French population, without taking into account the number of recovered individuals before April 1st, which is not known. This proportion is seemingly too low to reach herd immunity. Thus, even if the lockdown strongly mitigated the first epidemic wave, keeping a low value of R e is crucial to avoid an uncontrolled second wave (initiated with much more infectious cases than the first wave) and to hence avoid the saturation of hospital facilities.
| S-EPMC7290065 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Phase-wise variations in different aerosol (BC, AOD, PM1, PM2.5 and PM10), radiation (direct and diffused) and trace gases (NO, NO2, CO, O3, SO2, CO2 and CH4) and their associated chemistry during the COVID-19 lockdown have been investigated over a tropical rural site Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E), India. Unlike most of the other reported studies on COVID-19 lockdown, this study provides variations over a unique tropical rural environment located at a scientifically strategic location in the Southern Indian peninsula. Striking differences in the time series and diurnal variability have been observed in different phases of the lockdown. The levels of most species that are primarily emitted from anthropogenic activities reduced significantly during the lockdown which also impacted the levels and diurnal variability of secondary species like O3. When compared with the same periods in 2019, short-lived trace gas species such as NO, NO2, SO2 which have direct anthropogenic emission influence have shown the reduction over 50%, whereas species like CO and O3 which have direct as well as indirect impacts of anthropogenic emissions have shown reductions up to 10%. Long-lived species (CO2 and CH4) have shown negligible difference (<1%). BC and AOD have shown reductions over 20%. Particulate Matter (1, 2.5 and 10) reductions have been in the range of 40 to 50% when compared to the pre-lockdown period. The changes in shortwave downward radiation at the surface, diffuse component due to the scattering and diffuse fraction have been +2.2%, -4.1% and -2.4%, respectively, in comparison with 2019. In contrast with the studies over urban environments, air quality category over the rural environment remained same during the lockdown despite reduction in pollutants level. All the variations observed for different species and their associated chemistry provides an excellent demonstration of rural atmospheric chemistry and its intrinsic links with the precursor concentrations and dynamics.
| S-EPMC7831994 | biostudies-literature