Learning from deregulation: The asymmetric impact of lockdown and reopening on risky behavior during COVID-19.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Glaeser EL
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8242873 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Motivated by COVID-19, we develop and analyze a simple stochastic model for the spread of disease in human population. We track how the number of infected and critically ill people develops over time in order to estimate the demand that is imposed on the hospital system. To keep this demand under control, we consider a class of simple policies for slowing down and reopening society and we compare their efficiency in mitigating the spread of the virus from several different points of view. We find that in order to avoid overwhelming of the hospital system, a policy must impose a harsh lockdown or it must react swiftly (or both). While reacting swiftly is universally beneficial, being harsh pays off only when the country is patient about reopening and when the neighboring countries coordinate their mitigation efforts. Our work highlights the importance of acting decisively when closing down and the importance of patience and coordination between neighboring countries when reopening.
| S-EPMC8795434 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Patients on anticoagulant treatment are constantly increasing, with an estimated prevalence in Italy of 2% of the total population. The recent spreadout of the COVID-19 pandemic requires a re-organization of Anticoagulation Clinics to prevent person-to-person viral diffusion and continue to offer the highest possible quality of assistance to patients. In this paper, based on the Italian Federation of Anticoagulation Clinics statements, we offer some advice aimed at improving patient care during COVID-19 pandemic, with particular regard to the lockdown and reopening periods. We give practical guidance regarding the following points: (1) re-thinking the AC organization, (2) managing patients on anticoagulants when they become infected by the virus, (3) managing anticoagulation surveillance in non-infected patients during the lockdown period, and (4) organizing the activities during the reopening phases.
| S-EPMC7278243 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The recent restrictions on mobility and economic activities imposed by governments due to the COVID-19 pandemic have significantly affected waste production and recycling patterns in cities worldwide. This effect differed both between cities and within cities as the measures of confinement adopted by governments had diverse impacts in different areas of cities, depending on their characteristics (e.g., touristic, or residential). In the present work, mixed waste collection areas were created, based on waste collection points, that define spatial units in which contextual data such as tourism and residential characteristics were aggregated. The difference in mixed waste collected compared with previous years was analyzed along with the impacts on recycling due to the modification in operations regarding waste collection during the lockdown. The results showed that despite the suspension of the door-to-door recycling system during the lockdown, this did not translate into an increase in the production of mixed waste, and the recycling levels of previous years have not been reached after the lockdown, indicating a possible change in recycling habits in Lisbon. The touristic and non-residential mixed waste circuits presented significantly reduced mixed waste production compared to the non-pandemic context. Also, tourist, mobility, and economic activity were measured to understand which factors contributed to waste production changes during the COVID-19 pandemic. While little evidence of a relationship with these exogenous variables was found at the citywide level, evidence was found at the waste collection circuit level.
| S-EPMC8648666 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Social distancing through the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted sexuality and relationships, which may also change risk perceptions beyond traditional definitions (e.g. sexually transmitted infections). This study examines risk perceptions related to sexuality during the pandemic. We present qualitative analyses of a survey of adults in the United States (N = 333) to identify impacts of COVID-19 on individuals' risk perceptions. Risky sexual behavior definitions included: (1) COVID-19-related, (2) STI/pregnancy, (3) relationship-related, (4) physical boundaries, (5) drug or alcohol, and (6) multiple risks. Conventional public health messaging may need to incorporate changing risk definitions to address sexual health during the pandemic.
| S-EPMC8685755 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic warranted a myriad of government-ordered business closures across the USA in efforts to mitigate the spread of the virus. This study aims to discover the implications of government-enforced health policies of reopening public businesses amidst the pandemic and its effect on county-level infection rates.MethodsEighty-three US counties (n = 83) that reported at least 20 000 cases as of 4 November 2020 were selected for this study. The dates when businesses (restaurants, bars, retail, gyms, salons/barbers and public schools) partially and fully reopened, as well as infection rates on the 1st and 14th days following each businesses' reopening, were recorded. Regression analysis was conducted to deduce potential associations between the 14-day change in infection rate and mask usage frequency, median household income, population density and social distancing.ResultsOn average, infection rates rose significantly as businesses reopened. The average 14-day change in infection rate was higher for fully reopened businesses (infection rate = +0.100) compared to partially reopened businesses (infection rate = +0.0454). The P-value of the two distributions was 0.001692, indicating statistical significance (P < 0.01).ConclusionThis research provides insight into the transmission of COVID-19 and promotes evidence-driven policymaking for disease prevention and community health.
| S-EPMC8499779 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Study objectivesCOVID-19 lockdowns drastically affected sleep, physical activity, and wellbeing. We studied how these behaviors evolved during reopening the possible contributions of continued working from home and smartphone usage.MethodsParticipants (N = 198) were studied through the lockdown and subsequent reopening period, using a wearable sleep/activity tracker, smartphone-delivered ecological momentary assessment (EMA), and passive smartphone usage tracking. Work/study location was obtained through daily EMA ascertainment.ResultsUpon reopening, earlier, shorter sleep and increased physical activity were observed, alongside increased self-rated stress and poorer evening mood ratings. These reopening changes were affected by post-lockdown work arrangements and patterns of smartphone usage. Individuals who returned to work or school in-person tended toward larger shifts to earlier sleep and wake timings. Returning to in-person work/school also correlated with more physical activity. Contrary to expectation, there was no decrease in objectively measured smartphone usage after reopening. A cluster analysis showed that persons with relatively heavier smartphone use prior to bedtime had later sleep timings and lower physical activity.ConclusionsThese observations indicate that the reopening after lockdown was accompanied by earlier sleep timing, increased physical activity, and altered mental wellbeing. Moreover, these changes were affected by work/study arrangements and smartphone usage patterns.
| S-EPMC8549292 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWe present a novel approach for exiting coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdowns using a 'risk scorecard' to prioritize activities to resume whilst allowing safe reopening.MethodsWe modelled cases generated in the community/week, incorporating parameters for social distancing, contact tracing and imported cases. We set thresholds for cases and analysed the effect of varying parameters. An online tool to facilitate country-specific use including the modification of parameters (https://sshsphdemos.shinyapps.io/covid_riskbudget/) enables visualization of effects of parameter changes and trade-offs. Local outbreak investigation data from Singapore illustrate this.ResultsSetting a threshold of 0.9 mean number of secondary cases arising from a case to keep R < 1, we showed that opening all activities excluding high-risk ones (e.g. nightclubs) allows cases to remain within threshold; while opening high-risk activities would exceed the threshold and result in escalating cases. An 80% reduction in imported cases per week (141 to 29) reduced steady-state cases by 30% (295 to 205). One-off surges in cases (due to superspreading) had no effect on the steady state if the R remains <1. Increasing the effectiveness of contact tracing (probability of a community case being isolated when infectious) by 33% (0.6 to 0.8) reduced cases by 22% (295 to 231). Cases grew exponentially if the product of the mean number of secondary cases arising from a case and (1-probability of case being isolated) was >1.ConclusionsCountries can utilize a 'risk scorecard' to balance relaxations for travel and domestic activity depending on factors that reduce disease impact, including hospital/ICU capacity, contact tracing, quarantine and vaccination. The tool enabled visualization of the combinations of imported cases and activity levels on the case numbers and the trade-offs required. For vaccination, a reduction factor should be applied both for likelihood of an infected case being present and a close contact getting infected.
| S-EPMC8420627 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeThe COVID-19 pandemic and the implemented lockdown strongly impact on everyone's daily life. Stressful situations are known to alter eating habits and increase the risk for obesity. In our study, we aimed to investigate the effect of the lockdown measures on nutrition behavior among young adults.MethodsIn this cross-sectional study, we enrolled 1964 voluntary participants from Bavarian universities. All participants were asked to complete an online questionnaire, semi-quantitatively evaluating the amount and type of food before and during pandemic lockdown. Study subjects were inquired to give information about acquisition and food procurement. The primary outcome was the change in food amount, secondary outcomes included alterations of food composition and procurement.ResultsOur study cohort (mean age 23.3 ± 4.0 years, 28.5% male) had a mean body mass index of 22.1 ± 4.5 kg/m2. The overall food amount increased in 31.2% of participants (n = 610) during lockdown and decreased in 16.8% (n = 328). A multinominal regression model revealed that an increased food intake was less likely in male participants (OR, 0.7 [CI 0.6-0.9]) and more likely with increasing BMI (OR, 1.4 [CI 1.3-2.0]), increased sports activity (OR, 1.3 [CI 1.2-1.8]), augmented mental stress (OR 1.4 [1.1-1.7]), and an alteration of alcohol consumption (reduced alcohol amount, OR, 1.4 [CI 1.1-1.7], increased alcohol, OR, 1.9 [CI 1.4-2.5]). Increase in food intake was mainly triggered by consumption of bread (increased in 46.8%, n = 284) and confectionary (increased in 64.4%, n = 389).ConclusionThe COVID-19 pandemic lockdown significantly affected eating habits in young adults. Further investigation to evaluate long-term effects on weight change and comorbidities are warranted.
| S-EPMC7705857 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and aimsThe COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in associated lockdown restrictions for individuals across England, including the postponement of all recreational sporting provisions. The beneficial effects of regular physical activity are well established yet to the authors' knowledge, no research addresses the cancellation of all recreational provisions. Using quantitative and qualitative methods, this study assessed the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on recreational sports players, what alternative exercise methods have been sought and how players feel about returning to their sport.MethodAn online survey was distributed across England for six-weeks commencing in May 2020. A questionnaire explored differences in the impact of COVID-19 restrictions between sex, winter/summer/year-round sports, team/individual sports, age, and resilience groups. The use of alternative exercise methods, coping strategies and feelings about returning to sport were also investigated. Responses were gathered from 2023 adults whose recreational sport had been cancelled by COVID-19. All completed questionnaires (n = 1213) were taken for analysis (mean age = 49.41 years, SD = 17.165, 55.2% female).ResultsQuantitative findings showed the negative impact of COVID-19 restrictions was greater for females, those involved in winter and team sports, those aged 18-39 and low-resilient copers (p < .05). No significant differences were found between individuals that had had COVID-19 or were considered vulnerable by government guidelines. Acceptance was the most common coping strategy. The average number of days per week that participants exercised significantly increased during lockdown, with significant increases also seen in the use of online workouts, fitness apps and home-gym exercise. Qualitative findings suggested that participants are looking forward to the social and physical benefits of recreational activity restarting yet are concerned about the logistics of returning under social distancing restrictions. Other worries included loss of fitness, spreading (younger age groups) and catching (older age groups) COVID-19 and being in a crowd.ConclusionsResults highlight what is currently accessible to home-based exercisers and inform the reintroduction of recreational sports clubs. As COVID-19 restrictions look to persist, club representatives should provide accessible home-exercise options and be cautious of participant concerns when considering the return of recreational sport.
| S-EPMC8422081 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionThe COVID-19 pandemic caused major changes in the lifestyle and in the access to health services worldwide. Progressive multiple sclerosis (pMS) patients are a vulnerable population at high risk of disability worsening.Objective and methodsThe objective of this study was to assess the health outcomes of COVID-19 lockdown in a cohort of 225 pMS patients.ResultsWorsening of neurological disability (19.7%) and fatigue (32.4%), depression (30.4%), and weight increase (28.3%) were observed in pMS patients during lockdown, along with discontinuation of regular physical exercise (47.1%) and of physical therapy (59.3%).ConclusionThese results highlight the adverse impact, on pMS patients, of the public health measures implemented for the containment of the pandemic.
| S-EPMC8786196 | biostudies-literature