Spatiotemporal analysis of COVID-19 outbreaks in Wuhan, China.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Liu W
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8249501 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundBoth coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) are caused by coronaviruses and have infected people in China and worldwide. We aimed to investigate whether COVID-19 and SARS exhibited similar spatial and temporal features at provincial level in mainland China.MethodsThe number of people infected by COVID-19 and SARS were extracted from daily briefings on newly confirmed cases during the epidemics, as of Mar. 4, 2020 and Aug. 3, 2003, respectively. We depicted spatiotemporal patterns of the COVID-19 and SARS epidemics using spatial statistics such as Moran's I and the local indicators of spatial association (LISA).ResultsCompared to SARS, COVID-19 had a higher overall incidence. We identified 3 clusters (predominantly located in south-central China; the highest RR = 135.08, 95% CI: 128.36-142.08) for COVID-19 and 4 clusters (mainly in Northern China; the highest RR = 423.51, 95% CI: 240.96-722.32) for SARS. Fewer secondary clusters were identified after the "Wuhan lockdown". The LISA cluster map detected a significantly high-low (Hubei) and low-high spatial clustering (Anhui, Hunan, and Jiangxi, in Central China) for COVID-19. Two significant high-high (Beijing and Tianjin) and low-high (Hebei) clusters were detected for SARS.ConclusionsCOVID-19 and SARS outbreaks exhibited distinct spatiotemporal clustering patterns at the provincial levels in mainland China, which may be attributable to changes in social and demographic factors, local government containment strategies or differences in transmission mechanisms.
| S-EPMC7598229 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), infected over 3300 healthcare workers in early 2020 in China. Little information is known about nosocomial infections of healthcare workers in the initial period. We analysed data from healthcare workers with nosocomial infections in Wuhan Union Hospital (Wuhan, China) and their family members. We collected and analysed data on exposure history, illness timelines and epidemiological characteristics from 25 healthcare workers with laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and two healthcare workers in whom COVID-19 was highly suspected, as well as 10 of their family members with COVID-19, between 5 January and 12 February 2020. The demographics and clinical features of the 35 laboratory-confirmed cases were investigated and viral RNA of 12 cases was sequenced and analysed. Nine clusters were found among the patients. All patients showed mild to moderate clinical manifestation and recovered without deterioration. The mean period of incubation was 4.5 days, the mean±sd clinical onset serial interval (COSI) was 5.2±3.2 days, and the median virus shedding time was 18.5 days. Complete genomic sequences of 12 different coronavirus strains demonstrated that the viral structure, with small irrelevant mutations, was stable in the transmission chains and showed remarkable traits of infectious traceability. SARS-CoV-2 can be rapidly transmitted from person to person, regardless of whether they have symptoms, in both hospital settings and social activities, based on the short period of incubation and COSI. The public health service should take practical measures to curb the spread, including isolation of cases, tracing close contacts, and containment of severe epidemic areas. Besides this, healthcare workers should be alert during the epidemic and self-quarantine if self-suspected of infection.
| S-EPMC7236818 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Early detection is critical in limiting the spread of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19). Although previous data revealed characteristics of GI symptoms in COVID-19, for patients with only GI symptoms onset, their diagnostic process and potential transmission risk are still unclear. METHODS:We retrospectively reviewed 205 COVID-19 cases from January 16 to March 30, 2020, in Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University. All patients were confirmed by virus nuclei acid tests. The clinical features and laboratory and chest tomographic (CT) data were recorded and analyzed. RESULTS:A total of 171 patients with classic symptoms (group A) and 34 patients with only GI symptoms (group B) were included. In patients with classical COVID-19 symptoms, GI symptoms occurred more frequently in severe cases compared to non-severe cases (20/43 vs. 91/128, respectively, p?<?0.05). In group B, 91.2% (31/34) patients were non-severe, while 73.5% (25/34) patients had obvious infiltrates in their first CT scans. Compared to group A, group B patients had a prolonged time to clinic services (5.0 days vs. 2.6 days, p?<?0.01) and a longer time to a positive viral swab normalized to the time of admission (6.9 days vs. 3.3 days, respectively, p?<?0.01). Two patients in group B had family clusters of SARS-CoV-2 infection. CONCLUSION:Patients with only GI symptoms of COVID-19 may take a longer time to present to healthcare services and receive a confirmed diagnosis. In areas where infection is rampant, physicians must remain vigilant of patients presenting with acute gastrointestinal symptoms and should do appropriate personal protective equipment.
| S-EPMC7658436 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is rapidly spreading and resulting in a significant loss of life around the world. However, specific information characterizing cardiovascular changes in COVID-19 is limited. Methods: In this single-centered, observational study, we enrolled 38 adult patients with COVID-19 from February 10 to March 13, 2020. Clinical records, laboratory findings, echocardiography, and electrocardiogram reports were collected and analyzed. Results: Of the 38 patients enrolled, the median age was 68 years [interquartile range (IQR), 55-74] with a slight female majority (21, 55.3%). Nineteen (50.0%) patients had hypertension. Seven (33.3%) had ST-T segment and T wave changes, and four (19%) had sinus tachycardia. Twenty (52.6%) had an increase in ascending aorta (AAO) diameter, 22 (57.9%) had an increase in left atrium (LA) size, and 28 (73.7%) presented with ventricular diastolic dysfunction. Correlation analysis showed that the AAO diameter was significantly associated with C-reactive protein (r = 0.4313) and creatine kinase-MB (r = 0.0414). LA enlargement was significantly associated with C-reactive protein (r = 0.4377), brain natriuretic peptide (r = 0.7612), creatine kinase-MB (r = 0.4940), and aspartate aminotransferase (r = 0.2947). Lymphocyte count was negatively associated with the AAO diameter (r = -0.5329) and LA enlargement (r = -0.3894). Conclusions: Hypertension was a common comorbidity among hospitalized patients with COVID-19, and cardiac injury was the most common complication. Changes in cardiac structure and function manifested mainly in the left heart and AAO in these patients. Abnormal AAO and LA size were found to be associated with severe inflammation and cardiac injury. Alternatively, ascending aortic dilation and LA enlargement might be present before infection but characterized the patient at risk for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection.
| S-EPMC7498715 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo design models of the spread of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan and the effect of Fangcang shelter hospitals (rapidly-built temporary hospitals) on the control of the epidemic.MethodsWe used data on daily reported confirmed cases of COVID-19, recovered cases and deaths from the official website of the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission to build compartmental models for three phases of the COVID-19 epidemic. We incorporated the hospital-bed capacity of both designated and Fangcang shelter hospitals. We used the models to assess the success of the strategy adopted in Wuhan to control the COVID-19 epidemic.FindingsBased on the 13 348 Fangcang shelter hospitals beds used in practice, our models show that if the Fangcang shelter hospitals had been opened on 6 February (a day after their actual opening), the total number of COVID-19 cases would have reached 7 413 798 (instead of 50 844) with 1 396 017 deaths (instead of 5003), and the epidemic would have lasted for 179 days (instead of 71).ConclusionWhile the designated hospitals saved lives of patients with severe COVID-19, it was the increased hospital-bed capacity of the large number of Fangcang shelter hospitals that helped slow and eventually stop the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan. Given the current global pandemic of COVID-19, our study suggests that increasing hospital-bed capacity, especially through temporary hospitals such as Fangcang shelter hospitals, to isolate groups of people with mild symptoms within an affected region could help curb and eventually stop COVID-19 outbreaks in communities where effective household isolation is not possible.
| S-EPMC7716094 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The discovery of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are causing public health emergencies. A handful pieces of literature have summarized its clinical and radiologic features, whereas therapies for COVID-19 are rather limited. To evaluate the efficacy of convalescent plasma therapy in COVID-19 patients, we did this timely descriptive study. Six laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients were enrolled and received the transfusion of ABO-compatible convalescent plasma. The efficacy of this intervention was determined by the alleviation of symptoms, changes in radiologic abnormalities and laboratory tests. No obvious adverse effect observed during the treatment. Transfusion of convalescent plasma led to a resolution of ground-glass opacities and consolidation in patients #1, #2, #3, #4, and #6. In patients #1 and #5 who presented with SARS-CoV-2 in throat swab, convalescent plasma therapy elicited an elimination of the virus. Serologic analysis indicated an immediate increase in anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody titers in patients #2 and #3, but not in patient #1. This study indicates that convalescent plasma therapy is effective and specific for COVID-19. This intervention has a special significance for eliminating SARS-CoV-2 and is believed to be a promising state-of-the-art therapy during COVID-19 pandemic crisis.
| S-EPMC7262027 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC7182016 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:A COVID-19 outbreak started in Wuhan, China, last December and now has become a global pandemic. The clinical information in caring of critically ill patients with COVID-19 needs to be shared timely, especially under the situations that there is still a largely ongoing spread of COVID-19 in many countries. METHODS:A multicenter prospective observational study investigated all the COVID-19 patients received in 19 ICUs of 16 hospitals in Wuhan, China, over 24?h between 8?AM February 2h and 8?AM February 27, 2020. The demographic information, clinical characteristics, vital signs, complications, laboratory values, and clinical managements of the patients were studied. RESULTS:A total of 226 patients were included. Their median (interquartile range, IQR) age was 64 (57-70) years, and 139 (61.5%) patients were male. The duration from the date of ICU admission to the study date was 11 (5-17) days, and the duration from onset of symptoms to the study date was 31 (24-36) days. Among all the patients, 155 (68.6%) had at least one coexisting disease, and their sequential organ failure assessment score was 4 (2-8). Organ function damages were found in most of the patients: ARDS in 161 (71.2%) patients, septic shock in 34 (15.0%) patients, acute kidney injury occurred in 57 (25.2%) patients, cardiac injury in 61 (27.0%) patients, and lymphocytopenia in 160 (70.8%) patients. Of all the studied patients, 85 (37.6%) received invasive mechanical ventilation, including 14 (6.2%) treated with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) at the same time, 20 (8.8%) received noninvasive mechanical ventilation, and 24 (10.6%) received continuous renal replacement therapy. By April 9, 2020, 87 (38.5%) patients were deceased and 15 (6.7%) were still in the hospital. CONCLUSIONS:Critically ill patients with COVID-19 are associated with a higher risk of severe complications and need to receive an intensive level of treatments. COVID-19 poses a great strain on critical care resources in hospitals. TRIAL REGISTRATION:Chinese Clinical Trial Registry, ChiCTR2000030164. Registered on February 24, 2020, http://www.chictr.org.cn/edit.aspx?pid=49983&htm=4.
| S-EPMC7223395 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Recent outbreaks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has led a global pandemic cross the world. Most countries took two main interventions: suppression like immediate lockdown cities at epicenter or mitigation that slows down but not stopping epidemic for reducing peak healthcare demand. Both strategies have their apparent merits and limitations; it becomes extremely hard to conduct one intervention as the most feasible way to all countries. Targeting at this problem, this paper conducted a feasibility study by defining a mathematical model named SEMCR, it extended traditional SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) model by adding two key features: a direct connection between Exposed and Recovered populations, and separating infections into mild and critical cases. It defined parameters to classify two stages of COVID-19 control: active contain by isolation of cases and contacts, passive contain by suppression or mitigation. The model was fitted and evaluated with public dataset containing daily number of confirmed active cases including Wuhan and London during January 2020 and March 2020. The simulated results showed that 1) Immediate suppression taken in Wuhan significantly reduced the total exposed and infectious populations, but it has to be consistently maintained at least 90 days (by the middle of April 2020). Without taking this intervention, we predict the number of infections would have been 73 folders higher by the middle of April 2020. Its success requires efficient government initiatives and effective collaborative governance for mobilizing of corporate resources to provide essential goods. This mode may be not suitable to other countries without efficient collaborative governance and sufficient health resources. 2) In London, it is possible to take a hybrid intervention of suppression and mitigation for every 2 or 3 weeks over a longer period to balance the total infections and economic loss. While the total infectious populations in this scenario would be possibly 2 times than the one taking suppression, economic loss and recovery of London would be less affected. 3) Both in Wuhan and London cases, one important issue of fitting practical data was that there were a portion (probably 62.9% in Wuhan) of self-recovered populations that were asymptomatic or mild symptomatic. This finding has been recently confirmed by other studies that the seroprevalence in Wuhan varied between 3.2% and 3.8% in different sub-regions. It highlights that the epidemic is far from coming to an end by means of herd immunity. Early release of intervention intensity potentially increased a risk of the second outbreak.
| S-EPMC7410247 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Since December 2019, an outbreak of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2) initially emerged in Wuhan, China, and has spread worldwide now. Clinical features of patients with COVID-19 have been described. However, risk factors leading to in-hospital deterioration and poor prognosis in COVID-19 patients with severe disease have not been well identified. METHODS:In this retrospective, single-center cohort study, 1190 adult inpatients (??18 years old) with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 and determined outcomes (discharged or died) were included from Wuhan Infectious Disease Hospital from December 29, 2019 to February 28, 2020. The final follow-up date was March 2, 2020. Clinical data including characteristics, laboratory and imaging information as well as treatments were extracted from electronic medical records and compared. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to explore the potential predictors associated with in-hospital deterioration and death. RESULTS:1190 patients with confirmed COVID-19 were included. Their median age was 57 years (interquartile range 47-67 years). Two hundred and sixty-one patients (22%) developed a severe illness after admission. Multivariable logistic regression demonstrated that higher SOFA score (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.22-1.43, per score increase, p?<?0.001 for deterioration and OR 1.30, 95% CI 1.11-1.53, per score increase, p?=?0.001 for death), lymphocytopenia (OR 1.81, 95% CI 1.13-2.89 p?=?0.013 for deterioration; OR 4.44, 95% CI 1.26-15.87, p?=?0.021 for death) on admission were independent risk factors for in-hospital deterioration from not severe to severe disease and for death in severe patients. On admission D-dimer greater than 1 ?g/L (OR 3.28, 95% CI 1.19-9.04, p?=?0.021), leukocytopenia (OR 5.10, 95% CI 1.25-20.78), thrombocytopenia (OR 8.37, 95% CI 2.04-34.44) and history of diabetes (OR 11.16, 95% CI 1.87-66.57, p?=?0.008) were also associated with higher risks of in-hospital death in severe COVID-19 patients. Shorter time interval from illness onset to non-invasive mechanical ventilation in the survivors with severe disease was observed compared with non-survivors (10.5 days, IQR 9.25-11.0 vs. 16.0 days, IQR 11.0-19.0 days, p?=?0.030). Treatment with glucocorticoids increased the risk of progression from not severe to severe disease (OR 3.79, 95% CI 2.39-6.01, p?<?0.001). Administration of antiviral drugs especially oseltamivir or ganciclovir is associated with a decreased risk of death in severe patients (OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.05-0.64, p?<?0.001). CONCLUSIONS:High SOFA score and lymphocytopenia on admission could predict that not severe patients would develop severe disease in-hospital. On admission elevated D-dimer, leukocytopenia, thrombocytopenia and diabetes were independent risk factors of in-hospital death in severe patients with COVID-19. Administration of oseltamivir or ganciclovir might be beneficial for reducing mortality in severe patients.
| S-EPMC7393341 | biostudies-literature