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Added value of cardiovascular calcifications for prediction of recurrent cardiovascular events and cardiovascular interventions in patients with established cardiovascular disease.

ABSTRACT: The purpose is to investigate the added prognostic value of coronary artery calcium (CAC), thoracic aortic calcium (TAC), and heart valve calcium scores for prediction of a combined endpoint of recurrent major cardiovascular events and cardiovascular interventions (MACE +) in patients with established cardiovascular disease (CVD). In total, 567 patients with established CVD enrolled in a substudy of the UCC-SMART cohort, entailing cardiovascular CT imaging and calcium scoring, were studied. Five Cox proportional hazards models for prediction of 4-year risk of MACE + were developed; traditional CVD risk predictors only (model I), with addition of CAC (model II), TAC (model III), heart valve calcium (model IV), and all calcium scores (model V). Bootstrapping was performed to account for optimism. During a median follow-up of 3.43 years (IQR 2.28-4.74) 77 events occurred (MACE+). Calibration of predicted versus observed 4-year risk for model I without calcium scores was good, and the c-statistic was 0.65 (95%CI 0.59-0.72). Calibration for models II-V was similar to model I, and c-statistics were 0.67, 0.65, 0.65, and 0.68 for model II, III, IV, and V, respectively. NRIs showed improvement in risk classification by model II (NRI 15.24% (95%CI 0.59-29.39)) and model V (NRI 20.00% (95%CI 5.59-34.92)), but no improvement for models III and IV. In patients with established CVD, addition of the CAC score improved performance of a risk prediction model with classical risk factors for the prediction of the combined endpoint MACE+ . Addition of the TAC or heart valve score did not improve risk predictions.

SUBMITTER: van 't Klooster CC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8255266 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:AimsThe 10-year risk of recurrent atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events in patients with established ASCVD can be estimated with the Secondary Manifestations of ARTerial disease (SMART) risk score, and may help refine clinical management. To broaden generalizability across regions, we updated the existing tool (SMART2 risk score) and recalibrated it with regional incidence rates and assessed its performance in external populations.Methods and resultsIndividuals with coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral artery disease, or abdominal aortic aneurysms were included from the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-SMART cohort [n = 8355; 1706 ASCVD events during a median follow-up of 8.2 years (interquartile range 4.2-12.5)] to derive a 10-year risk prediction model for recurrent ASCVD events (non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, or cardiovascular mortality) using a Fine and Gray competing risk-adjusted model. The model was recalibrated to four regions across Europe, and to Asia (excluding Japan), Japan, Australia, North America, and Latin America using contemporary cohort data from each target region. External validation used data from seven cohorts [Clinical Practice Research Datalink, SWEDEHEART, the international REduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) Registry, Estonian Biobank, Spanish Biomarkers in Acute Coronary Syndrome and Biomarkers in Acute Myocardial Infarction (BACS/BAMI), the Norwegian COgnitive Impairment After STroke, and Bialystok PLUS/Polaspire] and included 369 044 individuals with established ASCVD of whom 62 807 experienced an ASCVD event. C-statistics ranged from 0.605 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.547-0.664] in BACS/BAMI to 0.772 (95% CI 0.659-0.886) in REACH Europe high-risk region. The clinical utility of the model was demonstrated across a range of clinically relevant treatment thresholds for intensified treatment options.ConclusionThe SMART2 risk score provides an updated, validated tool for the prediction of recurrent ASCVD events in patients with established ASCVD across European and non-European populations. The use of this tool could allow for a more personalized approach to secondary prevention based upon quantitative rather than qualitative estimates of residual risk.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Cardiovascular disease such as coronary artery disease, stroke and congestive heart failure, is a leading cause of death worldwide. A postulated risk factor is elevated circulating total homocysteine (tHcy) levels which is influenced mainly by blood levels of cyanocobalamin (vitamin B12), folic acid (vitamin B9) and pyridoxine (vitamin B6). There is uncertainty regarding the strength of association between tHcy and the risk of cardiovascular disease. OBJECTIVES:To assess the clinical effectiveness of homocysteine-lowering interventions (HLI) in people with or without pre-existing cardiovascular disease. SEARCH STRATEGY:We searched The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) on The Cochrane Library (issue 3 2008), MEDLINE (1950 to August 2008), EMBASE (1988 to August 2008), and LILACS (1982 to September 2, 2008). We also searched in Allied and Complementary Medicine (AMED; 1985 to August 2008), ISI Web of Science (1993 to August 2008), and the Cochrane Stroke Group Specialised Register (April 2007). We hand searched pertinent journals and the reference lists of included papers. We also contacted researchers in the field. There was no language restriction in the search. SELECTION CRITERIA:We included randomised clinical trials (RCTs) assessing the effects of HLI for preventing cardiovascular events with a follow-up period of 1 year or longer. We considered myocardial infarction and stroke as the primary outcomes. We excluded studies in patients with end-stage renal disease. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS:We independently performed study selection, risk of bias assessment and data extraction. We estimated relative risks (RR) for dichotomous outcomes. We measured statistical heterogeneity using I(2). We used a random-effects model to synthesise the findings. MAIN RESULTS:We included eight RCTs involving 24,210 participants with a low risk of bias in general terms. HLI did not reduce the risk of non-fatal or fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, or death by any cause (pooled RR 1.03, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.13, I(2) = 0%; pooled RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.73 to 1.08, I(2) = 15%); and pooled RR 1.00 (95% CI 0.92 to 1.09, I(2): 0%), respectively. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS:Results from available published trials suggest that there is no evidence to support the use of HLI to prevent cardiovascular events.

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Added value of cardiovascular calcifications for prediction of recurrent cardiovascular events and cardiovascular interventions in patients with established cardiovascular disease.

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