Dataset Information

Performance of the GRACE 2.0 score in patients with type 1 and type 2 myocardial infarction.

ABSTRACT:

Aims

The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score was developed to evaluate risk in patients with myocardial infarction. However, its performance in type 2 myocardial infarction is uncertain.

Methods and results

In two cohorts of consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome from 10 hospitals in Scotland (n = 48 282) and a tertiary care hospital in Sweden (n = 22 589), we calculated the GRACE 2.0 score to estimate death at 1 year. Discrimination was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), and compared for those with an adjudicated diagnosis of type 1 and type 2 myocardial infarction using DeLong's test. Type 1 myocardial infarction was diagnosed in 4981 (10%) and 1080 (5%) patients in Scotland and Sweden, respectively. At 1 year, 720 (15%) and 112 (10%) patients died with an AUC for the GRACE 2.0 score of 0.83 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82-0.85] and 0.85 (95% CI 0.81-0.89). Type 2 myocardial infarction occurred in 1121 (2%) and 247 (1%) patients in Scotland and Sweden, respectively, with 258 (23%) and 57 (23%) deaths at 1 year. The AUC was 0.73 (95% CI 0.70-0.77) and 0.73 (95% CI 0.66-0.81) in type 2 myocardial infarction, which was lower than for type 1 myocardial infarction in both cohorts (P < 0.001 and P = 0.008, respectively).

Conclusion

The GRACE 2.0 score provided good discrimination for all-cause death at 1 year in patients with type 1 myocardial infarction, and moderate discrimination for those with type 2 myocardial infarction.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01852123.

SUBMITTER: Hung J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8266602 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:BACKGROUND:Risk prediction after myocardial infarction is often complex in older patients. The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) model includes clinical parameters and age, but not frailty. We hypothesised that frailty would enhance the prognostic properties of GRACE. METHODS:We performed a prospective observational cohort study in two independent cardiology units: the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, UK (primary cohort) and the South Yorkshire Cardiothoracic Centre, Sheffield, UK (external validation). The study sample included 198 patients ?65?years old hospitalised with type 1 myocardial infarction (primary cohort) and 96 patients ?65?years old undergoing cardiac catheterisation for myocardial infarction (external validation). Frailty was assessed using the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS). The GRACE 2.0 estimated risk of 12-month mortality, Charlson comorbidity index and Karnofsky disability scale were also determined for each patient. RESULTS:Forty (20%) patients were frail (CFS ?5). These individuals had greater comorbidity, functional impairment and a higher risk of death at 12?months (49% vs. 9% in non-frail patients, p?<?0.001). The hazard of 12-month all-cause mortality nearly doubled per point increase in CFS after adjustment for age, sex and comorbidity (Hazard Ratio [HR] 1.90, 95% CI 1.47-2.44, p?<?0.001). The CFS had good discrimination for mortality by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis (Area Under the Curve [AUC] 0.81, 95% CI 0.72-0.89) and enhanced the GRACE estimate (AUC 0.86 vs. 0.80 without CFS, p?=?0.04). At existing GRACE thresholds, the CFS resulted in a Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI) of 0.44 (95% CI 0.28-0.60, p?<?0.001), largely through reductions in risk estimates amongst non-frail patients. Similar findings were observed in the external validation cohort (NRI 0.46, 95% CI 0.23-0.69, p?<?0.001). CONCLUSIONS:The GRACE score overestimated mortality risk after myocardial infarction in these cohorts of older patients. The CFS is a simple guided frailty tool that may enhance prediction in this setting. These findings merit evaluation in larger cohorts of unselected patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION:Clinicaltrials.gov; NCT02302014 (November 26th 2014, retrospectively registered).

Project description:Background: The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score (GRS) is an established powerful model in predicting prognosis of patients with acute coronary syndrome. However, it does not contain pathophysiological biomarkers. Myeloperoxidase (MPO) and trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) are novel biomarkers of different pathophysiological processes of acute myocardial infarction, and each of them predicts risk of adverse clinical outcomes. We aimed to investigate whether the addition of MPO and TMAO could improve a GRS-based prediction model in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Methods: A prospective cohort of 444 consecutive patients with STEMI who underwent primary percutaneous coronary intervention were enrolled in this study. Plasma levels of MPO and TMAO were measured using samples collected before the interventional procedure. GRS at admission was calculated. Death and nonfatal myocardial infarction were recorded as major adverse cardiac events (MACEs). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis with Cox proportional-hazards regression was used to identify predictive values of MPO and TMAO. Area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC) and net reclassification improvement (NRI) were calculated to evaluate the increment of predictive value for the combination of MPO and TMAO with GRS in predicting adverse clinical outcomes. Results: During 6 months follow-up, 27 patients suffered MACEs. Both MPO (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.55, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.11-5.87; p < 0.05) and TMAO (HR: 4.50, 95% CI: 1.78-11.40, p < 0.01) predicted MACEs at 6 months. The AUC for MPO, TMAO, GRS, and their combination in predicting risk of MACEs at 6 months is 0.642, 0.692, 0.736, and 0.760, respectively. The addition of MPO and TMAO significantly improved the net reclassification of GRS for predicting MACEs at 6 months (NRI: 0.42, p = 0.032). Conclusion: Plasma MPO and TMAO each predict near-term risk of adverse outcomes in patients with STEMI. Furthermore, the combination of MPO and TMAO with GRS enables more accurate prediction of cardiovascular events compared with GRS alone.

Project description:Background It remains unclear whether the novel biomarker cysteine-rich angiogenic inducer 61 (CCN1) adds incremental prognostic value to the GRACE 2.0 (Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events) risk score and biomarkers high-sensitivity Troponin T, hsCRP (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein), and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) in patients with acute coronary syndromes. Methods and Results Patients referred for coronary angiography with a primary diagnosis of acute coronary syndromes were enrolled in the Special Program University Medicine - Acute Coronary Syndromes and Inflammation cohort. The primary/secondary end points were 30-day/1-year all-cause mortality and the composite of all-cause mortality or myocardial infarction as used in the GRACE risk score. Associations between biomarkers and outcome were assessed using log-transformed biomarker values and the GRACE risk score (versions 1.0 and 2.0). The incremental value of CCN1 beyond a reference model was assessed using Harrell's C-statistics calculated from a Cox proportional-hazard model. The P value of the C-statistics was derived from a likelihood ratio test. Among 2168 patients recruited, 1732 could be analyzed. CCN1 was the strongest single predictor of all-cause mortality at 30 days (hazard ratio [HR], 1.77 [1.31, 2.40]) and 1 year (HR, 1.81 [1.47, 2.22]). Adding CCN1 alone to the GRACE 2.0 risk score improved C-statistics for prognostic accuracy of all-cause mortality at 30 days (0.87-0.88) and 1 year (0.81-0.82) and when combined with high-sensitivity Troponin T, hsCRP, NT-proBNP for 30 days (0.87-0.91), and for 1-year follow-up (0.81-0.84). CCN1 also increased the prognostic value for the composite of all-cause mortality or myocardial infarction. Conclusions CCN1 predicts adverse outcomes in patients with acute coronary syndromes adding incremental information to the GRACE risk score, suggesting distinct underlying molecular mechanisms. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01000701.