A sub-national real-time epidemiological and vaccination database for the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Berry I
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8282612 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic is impacting human activities, and in turn energy use and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Here we present daily estimates of country-level CO2 emissions for different sectors based on near-real-time activity data. The key result is an abrupt 8.8% decrease in global CO2 emissions (-1551 Mt CO2) in the first half of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019. The magnitude of this decrease is larger than during previous economic downturns or World War II. The timing of emissions decreases corresponds to lockdown measures in each country. By July 1st, the pandemic's effects on global emissions diminished as lockdown restrictions relaxed and some economic activities restarted, especially in China and several European countries, but substantial differences persist between countries, with continuing emission declines in the U.S. where coronavirus cases are still increasing substantially.
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Project description:Mobility restrictions have been identified as key non-pharmaceutical interventions to limit the spread of the SARS-COV-2 epidemics. However, these interventions present significant drawbacks to the social fabric and negative outcomes for the real economy. In this paper we propose a real-time monitoring framework for tracking the economic consequences of various forms of mobility reductions involving European countries. We adopt a granular representation of mobility patterns during both the first and second waves of SARS-COV-2 in Italy, Germany, France and Spain to provide an analytical characterization of the rate of losses of industrial production by means of a nowcasting methodology. Our approach exploits the information encoded in massive datasets of human mobility provided by Facebook and Google, which are published at higher frequencies than the target economic variables, in order to obtain an early estimate before the official data becomes available. Our results show, in first place, the ability of mobility-related policies to induce a contraction of mobility patterns across jurisdictions. Besides this contraction, we observe a substitution effect which increases mobility within jurisdictions. Secondly, we show how industrial production strictly follows the dynamics of population commuting patterns and of human mobility trends, which thus provide information on the day-by-day variations in countries' economic activities. Our work, besides shedding light on how policy interventions targeted to induce a mobility contraction impact the real economy, constitutes a practical toolbox for helping governments to design appropriate and balanced policy actions aimed at containing the SARS-COV-2 spread, while mitigating the detrimental effect on the economy. Our study reveals how complex mobility patterns can have unequal consequences to economic losses across countries and call for a more tailored implementation of restrictions to balance the containment of contagion with the need to sustain economic activities.
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Project description:ObjectiveA national lockdown was implemented in Israel to slow the viral spread of COVID-19. We assessed the real-time effects of the lockdown on disease expression and lifestyle modifications in pediatric patients with chronic respiratory disorders.MethodsAn anonymous electronic questionnaire was distributed during lockdown (March-May 2020) to caregivers of patients with chronic respiratory disorders. The primary outcome was change in disease expression and the secondary outcomes were changes in lifestyle and caregivers' emotional status.ResultsThe clinical status of one-third of the 445 participating patients (age 0-18 years) reportedly improved, including decreased respiratory symptoms (n = 133, 33%), exacerbation frequency (n = 147, 35%), and use of reliever medications (n = 101, 27.4%). The condition of ~10% of the patients worsened. Clinical improvement was noted mostly in young patients <5 years (p = .001), asthmatic patients (p = .033), and patients with multiple underlying respiratory disorders (p = .015). Patients whose condition significantly worsened were more likely to be >5 years (p < .001), had increased screen time, decreased physical activity, and shorter sleep duration compared to their younger counterparts (p = .008, <.001, and .001, respectively). Caregivers' reports (n = 236 [58%]) of their own anxiety levels and perceptions of the patients' elevated health risk were increased, regardless of the children's actual clinical status.ConclusionCOVID-19 lockdown was associated with clinical improvement/stability for most of the surveyed children; however, their caregivers' anxiety level was heightened. An increased sedentary lifestyle was reported mostly in older children.
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Project description:ObjectiveThe objective of this research was to evaluate the impact of federal, public health and social support programs on national suicide rates in Canada.DesignCross-sectional study.SettingCanadian National Database (i.e., Statistics Canada) and Statista.ParticipantsPopulation-level data, and economic and consumer market data.Main outcome measuresSuicide mortality data, population data and unemployment data were obtained from available statistical databases (e.g. Statistics Canada). We quantified suicide rate by dividing the total number of suicide deaths by the national population expressed as a rate per 100,000 population.ResultsOverall suicide mortality rate decreased in Canada from 10.82 deaths per 100,000 in the March 2019 - February 2020 period to 7.34 per 100,000 (i.e. absolute difference of 1300 deaths) in the March 2020 - February 2021 period. The overall Canadian unemployment rate changed from an average monthly rate of 5.7% in 2019 to 9.5% in 2020.ConclusionOur results indicate that for the first post-pandemic interval evaluated (i.e., March 2020 - February 2021), suicide rates in Canada decreased against a background of extraordinary public health measures intended to mitigate community spread of COVID-19. An externality of public health measures was a significant rise in national unemployment rates in population measures of distress. Our results suggest that government interventions that broadly aim to reduce measures of insecurity (i.e., economic, housing, health), and timely psychiatric services, should be prioritised as part of a national suicide reduction strategy, not only during but after termination of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Project description:IntroductionFetal alcohol spectrum disorder (FASD) is one of the most common neurodevelopmental disorders in North America. It is a complex disability, associated with challenges in cognitive, behavioural and socialemotional functioning, as well as an increased risk of physical and mental health comorbidities, and difficulties in daily living across the lifespan. Previous attempts to characterise the profile of this population have been hampered by differences in data collected across studies, regional discrepancies in terminology and definitions, and a lack of tools to integrate comprehensive datasets.Methods and analysisThe goals of this study are to use the Canadian National FASD Database, a national repository of FASD assessment-related information, to better understand the functional profile, comorbidities, intervention needs and difficulties in daily living experienced by individuals assessed for FASD across the lifespan. We will also examine what factors may be the most sensitive predictors of receiving an FASD diagnosis. Data will be analysed from over 3500 records collected between 2010 and 2021 (ongoing) from 26 FASD diagnostic clinics in seven provinces and territories. Data collection is ongoing, and analysis will be performed on a biannual basis to continue to hone our understanding of the profiles, needs and outcomes of individuals assessed for FASD in Canada. This research is critical for refining FASD assessment and diagnostic practice, enabling accurate and early identification of individuals with FASD, and connecting individuals with FASD and their families to comprehensive and effective services and resources to support healthy developmental trajectories.Ethics and disseminationEthics approval for the National FASD Database Project was obtained from the Ottawa Health Science Network Research Ethics Board. As new knowledge is gained from this project, findings will be disseminated through publications, presentations and feedback to participating clinics, with the ultimate goal of informing FASD research, practice and policy.
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Project description:In this study we present the first comprehensive analysis of the spatio-temporal differences in excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy. We used a population-based design on all-cause mortality data, for the 7,904 Italian municipalities. We estimated sex-specific weekly mortality rates for each municipality, based on the first four months of 2016-2019, while adjusting for age, localised temporal trends and the effect of temperature. Then, we predicted all-cause weekly deaths and mortality rates at municipality level for the same period in 2020, based on the modelled spatio-temporal trends. Lombardia showed higher mortality rates than expected from the end of February, with 23,946 (23,013 to 24,786) total excess deaths. North-West and North-East regions showed one week lag, with higher mortality from the beginning of March and 6,942 (6,142 to 7,667) and 8,033 (7,061 to 9,044) total excess deaths respectively. We observed marked geographical differences also at municipality level. For males, the city of Bergamo (Lombardia) showed the largest percent excess, 88.9% (81.9% to 95.2%), at the peak of the pandemic. An excess of 84.2% (73.8% to 93.4%) was also estimated at the same time for males in the city of Pesaro (Central Italy), in stark contrast with the rest of the region, which does not show evidence of excess deaths. We provided a fully probabilistic analysis of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic at sub-national level, suggesting a differential direct and indirect effect in space and time. Our model can be used to help policy-makers target measures locally to contain the burden on the health-care system as well as reducing social and economic consequences. Additionally, this framework can be used for real-time mortality surveillance, continuous monitoring of local temporal trends and to flag where and when mortality rates deviate from the expected range, which might suggest a second wave of the pandemic.
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Project description:BackgroundThere have been concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may lead to an increase in suicide. The coronial system in England is not suitable for timely monitoring of suicide because of the delay of several months before inquests are held.MethodsWe used data from established systems of "real time surveillance" (RTS) of suspected suicides, in areas covering a total population of around 13 million, to test the hypothesis that the suicide rate rose after the first national lockdown began in England.FindingsThe number of suicides in April-October 2020, after the first lockdown began, was 121•3 per month, compared to 125•7 per month in January-March 2020 (-4%; 95% CI-19% to 13%, p = 0•59). Incidence rate ratios did not show a significant rise in individual months after lockdown began and were not raised during the 2-month lockdown period April-May 2020 (IRR: 1•01 [0•81-1•25]) or the 5-month period after the easing of lockdown, June-October 2020 (0•94 [0•81-1•09]). Comparison of the suicide rates after lockdown began in 2020 for the same months in selected areas in 2019 showed no difference.InterpretationWe did not find a rise in suicide rates in England in the months after the first national lockdown began in 2020, despite evidence of greater distress. However, a number of caveats apply. These are early figures and may change. Any effect of the pandemic may vary by population group or geographical area. The use of RTS in this way is new and further development is needed before it can provide full national data.FundingThis study was funded by the Healthcare Quality Improvement Partnership (HQIP).The HQIP is led by a consortium of the Academy of Medical Royal Colleges, the Royal College of Nursing, and National Voices. Its aim is to promote quality improvement in patient outcomes, and in particular, to increase the impact that clinical audit, outcome review programs and registries have on healthcare quality in England and Wales. HQIP holds the contract to commission, manage, and develop the National Clinical Audit and Patient Outcomes Program (NCAPOP), comprising around 40 projects covering care provided to people with a wide range of medical, surgical and mental health conditions. The program is funded by NHS England, the Welsh Government and, with some individual projects, other devolved administrations, and crown dependencies.
| S-EPMC8454726 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesPatients who arrive at the emergency department (ED) with COVID-19, who test negative at the first real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), represent a clinical challenge. This study aimed to evaluate if the clinical manifestation at presentation, the laboratory and imaging results, and the prognosis of COVID-19 differ in patients who tested negative at the first RT-PCR compared with those who tested positive and also to evaluate if comorbid conditions patient-related or the period of arrival are associated with negative testing.Study designWe retrospectively collected clinical data of patients who accessed the ED from March 1 to May 15, 2020.MethodsWe compared clinical variables, comorbid conditions, and clinical outcomes in the two groups by univariate analysis and logistic regression.ResultsPatients who tested negative at the first RT-PCR showed a higher prevalence of cardiopathy, immunosuppression, and diabetes, as well as a higher leukocyte and lower lymphocyte counts compared with patients who tested positive. A bilateral interstitial syndrome and a typical pattern at computed tomography scan were prevalent in the test-negative group. Test-negative patients were more likely to be admitted to the hospital but less likely to need admission in a high level of care ward. The false-negative rate increased from March to May.ConclusionFalse-negative RT-PCR COVID-19 patients present a similar spectrum of symptoms compared with positive cohort, but more comorbidities. Imaging helps to identify them. True positives had a higher risk of serious complications.
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Project description:The coronavirus pandemic has rapidly evolved into an unprecedented crisis. The susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model and its variants have been used for modeling the pandemic. However, time-independent parameters in the classical models may not capture the dynamic transmission and removal processes, governed by virus containment strategies taken at various phases of the epidemic. Moreover, few models account for possible inaccuracies of the reported cases. We propose a Poisson model with time-dependent transmission and removal rates to account for possible random errors in reporting and estimate a time-dependent disease reproduction number, which may reflect the effectiveness of virus control strategies. We apply our method to study the pandemic in several severely impacted countries, and analyze and forecast the evolving spread of the coronavirus. We have developed an interactive web application to facilitate readers' use of our method.
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