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Individualized Prognostic Prediction of the Long-Term Functional Trajectory in Pediatric Acquired Brain Injury.

ABSTRACT: In pediatric acquired brain injury, heterogeneity of functional response to specific rehabilitation treatments is a key confound to medical decisions and outcome prediction. We aimed to identify patient subgroups sharing comparable trajectories, and to implement a method for the early prediction of the long-term recovery course from clinical condition at first discharge. 600 consecutive patients with acquired brain injury (7.4 years ± 5.2; 367 males; median GCS = 6) entered a standardized rehabilitation program. Functional Independent Measure scores were measured yearly, until year 7. We classified the functional trajectories in clusters, through a latent class model. We performed single-subject prediction of trajectory membership in cases unseen during model fitting. Four trajectory types were identified (post.prob. > 0.95): high-start fast (N = 92), low-start fast (N = 168), slow (N = 130) and non-responders (N = 210). Fast responders were older (chigh = 1.8; clow = 1.1) than non-responders and suffered shorter coma (chigh = -14.7; clow = -4.3). High-start fast-responders had shorter length of stay (c = -1.6), and slow responders had lower incidence of epilepsy (c = -1.4), than non-responders (p < 0.001). Single-subject trajectory could be predicted with high accuracy at first discharge (accuracy = 0.80). In conclusion, we stratified patients based on the evolution of their response to a specific treatment program. Data at first discharge predicted the response over 7 years. This method enables early detection of the slow responders, who show poor post-acute functional gains, but achieve recovery comparable to fast responders by year 7. Further external validation in other rehabilitation programs is warranted.

SUBMITTER: Molteni E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8305391 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:For patients surviving serious traumatic brain injury (TBI), families and other stakeholders often desire information on long-term functional prognosis, but accurate and easy-to-use clinical tools are lacking. We aimed to build utilitarian decision trees from commonly collected clinical variables to predict Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) functional levels at 1, 2, and 5 years after moderate-to-severe closed TBI. Flexible classification tree statistical modeling was used on prospectively collected data from the TBI-Model Systems (TBIMS) inception cohort study. Enrollments occurred at 17 designated, or previously designated, TBIMS inpatient rehabilitation facilities. Analysis included all participants with nonpenetrating TBI injured between January 1997 and January 2017. Sample sizes were 10,125 (year-1), 8,821 (year-2), and 6,165 (year-5) after cross-sectional exclusions (death, vegetative state, insufficient post-injury time, and unavailable outcome). In our final models, post-traumatic amnesia (PTA) duration consistently dominated branching hierarchy and was the lone injury characteristic significantly contributing to GOS predictability. Lower-order variables that added predictability were age, pre-morbid education, productivity, and occupational category. Generally, patient outcomes improved with shorter PTA, younger age, greater pre-morbid productivity, and higher pre-morbid vocational or educational achievement. Across all prognostic groups, the best and worst good recovery rates were 65.7% and 10.9%, respectively, and the best and worst severe disability rates were 3.9% and 64.1%. Predictability in test data sets ranged from C-statistic of 0.691 (year-1; confidence interval [CI], 0.675, 0.711) to 0.731 (year-2; CI, 0.724, 0.738). In conclusion, we developed a clinically useful tool to provide prognostic information on long-term functional outcomes for adult survivors of moderate and severe closed TBI. Predictive accuracy for GOS level was demonstrated in an independent test sample. Length of PTA, a clinical marker of injury severity, was by far the most critical outcome determinant.

Project description:BackgroundIndividuals with traumatic brain injury (TBI) have extended inpatient hospital stays that include prolonged mechanical ventilation, increasing risk for infections, including pneumonia. Studies show the negative short-term effects of hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP) on hospital-based outcomes; however, little is known of its long-term effects.MethodsA prospective cohort study was conducted. National Trauma Databank and Traumatic Brain Injury Model Systems were merged to derive a cohort of 3,717 adults with moderate-to-severe TBI. Exposure data were gathered from the National Trauma Databank, and outcomes were gathered from the Traumatic Brain Injury Model Systems. The primary outcome was the Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOS-E), which was collected at 1, 2, and 5 years postinjury. The GOS-E was categorized as favorable (>5) or unfavorable (≤5) outcomes. A generalized estimating equation model was fitted estimating the effects of HAP on GOS-E over the first 5 years post-TBI, adjusting for age, race, ventilation status, brain injury severity, injury severity score, thoracic Abbreviated Injury Scale score of 3 or greater, mechanism of injury, intraventricular hemorrhage, and subarachnoid hemorrhage.ResultsIndividuals with HAP had a 34% (odds ratio, 1.34; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-1.56) increased odds for unfavorable GOS-E over the first 5 years post-TBI compared with individuals without HAP, after adjustment for covariates. There was a significant interaction between HAP and follow-up, such that the effect of HAP on GOS-E declined over time. Sensitivity analyses that weighted for nonresponse bias and adjusted for differences across trauma facilities did not appreciably change the results. Individuals with HAP spent 10.1 days longer in acute care and 4.8 days longer in inpatient rehabilitation and had less efficient functional improvement during inpatient rehabilitation.ConclusionIndividuals with HAP during acute hospitalization have worse long-term prognosis and greater hospital resource utilization. Preventing HAP may be cost-effective and improve long-term recovery for individuals with TBI. Future studies should compare the effectiveness of different prophylaxis methods to prevent HAP.Level of evidenceProspective cohort study, level III.

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Individualized Prognostic Prediction of the Long-Term Functional Trajectory in Pediatric Acquired Brain Injury.

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