Uncovering the effects of heterogeneity and parameter sensitivity on within-host dynamics of disease: malaria as a case study.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT: Background
The fidelity and reliability of disease model predictions depend on accurate and precise descriptions of processes and determination of parameters. Various models exist to describe within-host dynamics during malaria infection but there is a shortage of clinical data that can be used to quantitatively validate them and establish confidence in their predictions. In addition, model parameters often contain a degree of uncertainty and show variations between individuals, potentially undermining the reliability of model predictions. In this study models were reproduced and analysed by means of robustness, uncertainty, local sensitivity and local sensitivity robustness analysis to establish confidence in their predictions.Results
Components of the immune system are responsible for the most uncertainty in model outputs, while disease associated variables showed the greatest sensitivity for these components. All models showed a comparable degree of robustness but displayed different ranges in their predictions. In these different ranges, sensitivities were well-preserved in three of the four models.Conclusion
Analyses of the effects of parameter variations in models can provide a comparative tool for the evaluation of model predictions. In addition, it can assist in uncovering model weak points and, in the case of disease models, be used to identify possible points for therapeutic intervention.
SUBMITTER: Horn S
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8305899 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:Immune clearance and resource limitation (via red blood cell depletion) shape the peaks and troughs of malaria parasitemia, which in turn affect disease severity and transmission. Quantitatively partitioning the relative roles of these effects through time is challenging. Using data from rodent malaria, we estimated the effective propagation number, which reflects the relative importance of contrasting within-host control mechanisms through time and is sensitive to the inoculating parasite dose. Our analysis showed that the capacity of innate responses to restrict initial parasite growth saturates with parasite dose and that experimentally enhanced innate immunity can affect parasite density indirectly via resource depletion. Such a statistical approach offers a tool to improve targeting of drugs or vaccines for human therapy by revealing the dynamics and interactions of within-host regulatory mechanisms.
| S-EPMC3891600 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSympatric speciation-the divergence of populations into new species in absence of geographic barriers to hybridization-is the most debated mode of diversification of life forms. Parasitic organisms are prominent models for sympatric speciation, because they may colonise new hosts within the same geographic area and diverge through host specialization. However, it has been argued that this mode of parasite divergence is not strict sympatric speciation, because host shifts likely cause the sudden effective isolation of parasites, particularly if these are transmitted by vectors and therefore cannot select their hosts. Strict sympatric speciation would involve parasite lineages diverging within a single host species, without any population subdivision.Methodology/principal findingsHere we report a case of extraordinary divergence of sympatric, ecologically distinct, and reproductively isolated malaria parasites within a single avian host species, which apparently occurred without historical or extant subdivision of parasite or host populations.Conclusions/significanceThis discovery of within-host speciation changes our current view on the diversification potential of malaria parasites, because neither geographic isolation of host populations nor colonization of new host species are any longer necessary conditions to the formation of new parasite species.
| S-EPMC1794596 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Achieving a theoretical foundation for malaria elimination will require a detailed understanding of the quantitative relationships between patient treatment-seeking behavior, treatment coverage, and the effects of curative therapies that also block Plasmodium parasite transmission to mosquito vectors. Here, we report a mechanistic, within-host mathematical model that uses pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacodynamic (PD) data to simulate the effects of artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) on Plasmodium falciparum transmission. To contextualize this model, we created a set of global maps of the fold reductions that would be necessary to reduce the malaria R C (i.e. its basic reproductive number under control) to below 1 and thus interrupt transmission. This modeling was applied to low-transmission settings, defined as having a R 0<10 based on 2010 data. Our modeling predicts that treating 93-98% of symptomatic infections with an ACT within five days of fever onset would interrupt malaria transmission for ∼91% of the at-risk population of Southeast Asia and ∼74% of the global at-risk population, and lead these populations towards malaria elimination. This level of treatment coverage corresponds to an estimated 81-85% of all infected individuals in these settings. At this coverage level with ACTs, the addition of the gametocytocidal agent primaquine affords no major gains in transmission reduction. Indeed, we estimate that it would require switching ∼180 people from ACTs to ACTs plus primaquine to achieve the same transmission reduction as switching a single individual from untreated to treated with ACTs. Our model thus predicts that the addition of gametocytocidal drugs to treatment regimens provides very small population-wide benefits and that the focus of control efforts in Southeast Asia should be on increasing prompt ACT coverage. Prospects for elimination in much of Sub-Saharan Africa appear far less favorable currently, due to high rates of infection and less frequent and less rapid treatment.
| S-EPMC3900379 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The pre-clinical development of antiviral agents involves experimental trials in animals and ferrets as an animal model for the study of SARS-CoV-2. Here, we used mathematical models and experimental data to characterize the within-host infection dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in ferrets. We also performed a global sensitivity analysis of model parameters impacting the characteristics of the viral infection. We provide estimates of the viral dynamic parameters in ferrets, such as the infection rate, the virus production rate, the infectious virus proportion, the infected cell death rate, the virus clearance rate, as well as other related characteristics, including the basic reproduction number, pre-peak infectious viral growth rate, post-peak infectious viral decay rate, pre-peak infectious viral doubling time, post-peak infectious virus half-life, and the target cell loss in the respiratory tract. These parameters and indices are not significantly different between animals infected with viral strains isolated from the environment and isolated from human hosts, indicating a potential for transmission from fomites. While the infection period in ferrets is relatively short, the similarity observed between our results and previous results in humans supports that ferrets can be an appropriate animal model for SARS-CoV-2 dynamics-related studies, and our estimates provide helpful information for such studies.
| S-EPMC8402735 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Within-host SARS-CoV-2 modelling studies have been published throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. These studies contain highly variable numbers of individuals and capture varying timescales of pathogen dynamics; some studies capture the time of disease onset, the peak viral load and subsequent heterogeneity in clearance dynamics across individuals, while others capture late-time post-peak dynamics. In this study, we curate multiple previously published SARS-CoV-2 viral load data sets, fit these data with a consistent modelling approach, and estimate the variability of in-host parameters including the basic reproduction number, R0, as well as the best-fit eclipse phase profile. We find that fitted dynamics can be highly variable across data sets, and highly variable within data sets, particularly when key components of the dynamic trajectories (e.g. peak viral load) are not represented in the data. Further, we investigated the role of the eclipse phase time distribution in fitting SARS-CoV-2 viral load data. By varying the shape parameter of an Erlang distribution, we demonstrate that models with either no eclipse phase, or with an exponentially-distributed eclipse phase, offer significantly worse fits to these data, whereas models with less dispersion around the mean eclipse time (shape parameter two or more) offered the best fits to the available data across all data sets used in this work. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics".
| S-EPMC9990894 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Plasmodium infections trigger complex immune reactions from their hosts against several life stages of the parasite, including gametocytes. These immune responses are highly variable, depending on age, genetics, and exposure history of the host as well as species and strain of parasite. Although the effects of host antibodies that act against gamete stages in the mosquito (due to uptake in the blood meal) are well documented, the effects of host immunity upon within-host gametocytes are not as well understood. This report consists of a theoretical population biology-based analysis to determine constraints that host immunity impose upon gametocyte population growth. The details of the mathematical models used for the analysis were guided by published reports of clinical and animal studies, incorporated plausible modalities of immune reactions to parasites, and were tailored to the life cycl es of the two most widespread human malaria pathogens, Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax.For the same ability to bind and clear a target, the model simulations suggest that an antibody attacking immature gametocytes would tend to lower the overall density of transmissible mature gametocytes more than an antibody attacking the mature forms directly. Transmission of P. falciparum would be especially vulnerable to complete blocking by antibodies to its immature forms since its gametocytes take much longer to reach maturity than those of P. vivax. On the other hand, antibodies attacking the mature gametocytes directly would reduce the time the mature forms can linger in the host. Simulation results also suggest that varying the standard deviation in the time necessary for individual asexual parasites to develop and produce schizonts can affect the efficiency of production of transmissible gametocytes.If mature gametocyte density determines the probability of transmission, both Plasmodium species, but especially P. falciparum, could bolster this probability through evasion or suppression of host immune responses against the immature gametocytes. However, if the long term lingering of mature gametocytes at low density in the host is also important to ensure transmission, then evasion or suppression of antibodies against the mature stages would bolster probability of transmission as well.
| S-EPMC3691866 | biostudies-other
Project description:Malaria is a fatal human parasitic disease transmitted by a mosquito vector. Although the evolution of within-host malaria virulence has been the focus of many theoretical and empirical studies, the vector's contribution to this process is not well understood. Here, we explore how within-vector resource exploitation would impact the evolution of within-host Plasmodium virulence. By combining within-vector dynamics and malaria epidemiology, we develop a mathematical model, which predicts that non-competitive parasitic resource exploitation within-vector restricts within-host parasite virulence. To validate our model, we experimentally manipulate mosquito lipid trafficking and gauge within-vector parasite development and within-host infectivity and virulence. We find that mosquito-derived lipids determine within-host parasite virulence by shaping development (quantity) and metabolic activity (quality) of transmissible sporozoites. Our findings uncover the potential impact of within-vector environment and vector control strategies on the evolution of malaria virulence.
| S-EPMC6110728 | biostudies-literature
Project description:UnlabelledMicrobial population polymorphisms are commonly observed in natural environments, including long-term infected hosts. However, the underlying processes promoting and stabilizing diversity are difficult to unravel and are not well understood. Here, we use chronic infection of cystic fibrosis airways by the opportunistic pathogen Pseudomonas aeruginosa as a system for investigating bacterial diversification processes during the course of infection. We analyze clonal bacterial isolates sampled during a 32-year period and map temporal and spatial variations in population diversity to different infection sites within the infected host. We show that the ancestral infecting strain diverged into distinct sublineages, each with their own functional and genomic signatures and rates of adaptation, immediately after initial colonization. The sublineages coexisted in the host for decades, suggesting rapid evolution of stable population polymorphisms. Critically, the observed generation and maintenance of population diversity was the result of partitioning of the sublineages into physically separated niches in the CF airway. The results reveal a complex within-host population structure not previously realized and provide evidence that the heterogeneity of the highly structured and complex host environment promotes the evolution and long-term stability of pathogen population diversity during infection.ImportanceWithin-host pathogen evolution and diversification during the course of chronic infections is of importance in relation to therapeutic intervention strategies, yet our understanding of these processes is limited. Here, we investigate intraclonal population diversity in P. aeruginosa during chronic airway infections in cystic fibrosis patients. We show the evolution of a diverse population structure immediately after initial colonization, with divergence into multiple distinct sublineages that coexisted for decades and occupied distinct niches. Our results suggest that the spatial heterogeneity in CF airways plays a major role in relation to the generation and maintenance of population diversity and emphasize that a single isolate in sputum may not represent the entire pathogen population in the infected individual. A more complete understanding of the evolution of distinct clonal variants and their distribution in different niches could have positive implications for efficient therapy.
| S-EPMC4172072 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWhole genome re-sequencing provides powerful data for population genomic studies, allowing robust inferences of population structure, gene flow and evolutionary history. For the major malaria vector in Africa, Anopheles gambiae, other genetic aspects such as selection and adaptation are also important. In the present study, we explore population genetic variation from genome-wide sequencing of 765 An. gambiae and An. coluzzii specimens collected from across Africa. We used t-SNE, a recently popularized dimensionality reduction method, to create a 2D-map of An. gambiae and An. coluzzii genes that reflect their population structure similarities.ResultsThe map allows intuitive navigation among genes distributed throughout the so-called "mainland" and numerous surrounding "island-like" gene clusters. These gene clusters of various sizes correspond predominantly to low recombination genomic regions such as inversions and centromeres, and also to recent selective sweeps. Because this mosquito species complex has been studied extensively, we were able to support our interpretations with previously published findings. Several novel observations and hypotheses are also made, including selective sweeps and a multi-locus selection event in Guinea-Bissau, a known intense hybridization zone between An. gambiae and An. coluzzii.ConclusionsOur results present a rich dataset that could be utilized in functional investigations aiming to shed light onto An. gambiae s.l genome evolution and eventual speciation. In addition, the methodology presented here can be used to further characterize other species not so well studied as An. gambiae, shortening the time required to progress from field sampling to the identification of genes and genomic regions under unique evolutionary processes.
| S-EPMC8185951 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In the malaria parasite P. falciparum, drug resistance generally evolves first in low-transmission settings, such as Southeast Asia and South America. Resistance takes noticeably longer to appear in the high-transmission settings of sub-Saharan Africa, although it may spread rapidly thereafter. Here, we test the hypothesis that competitive suppression of drug-resistant parasites by drug-sensitive parasites may inhibit evolution of resistance in high-transmission settings, where mixed-strain infections are common. We employ a cross-scale model, which simulates within-host (infection) dynamics and between-host (transmission) dynamics of sensitive and resistant parasites for a population of humans and mosquitoes. Using this model, we examine the effects of transmission intensity, selection pressure, fitness costs of resistance, and cross-reactivity between strains on the establishment and spread of resistant parasites. We find that resistant parasites, introduced into the population at a low frequency, are more likely to go extinct in high-transmission settings, where drug-sensitive competitors and high levels of acquired immunity reduce the absolute fitness of the resistant parasites. Under strong selection from antimalarial drug use, however, resistance spreads faster in high-transmission settings than low-transmission ones. These contrasting results highlight the distinction between establishment and spread of resistance and suggest that the former but not the latter may be inhibited in high-transmission settings. Our results suggest that within-host competition is a key factor shaping the evolution of drug resistance in P. falciparum.
| S-EPMC6103507 | biostudies-literature