Derivation and validation of a two-variable index to predict 30-day outcomes following heart failure hospitalization.
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ABSTRACT: Background
The LACE index-length of stay (L), acuity (A), Charlson co-morbidities (C), and emergent visits (E)-predicts 30-day outcomes following heart failure (HF) hospitalization but is complex to score. A simpler LE index (length of stay and emergent visits) could offer a practical advantage in point-of-care risk prediction.Methods and results
This was a sub-study of the patient-centred care transitions in HF (PACT-HF) multicentre trial. The derivation cohort comprised patients hospitalized for HF, enrolled in the trial, and followed prospectively. External validation was performed retrospectively in a cohort of patients hospitalized for HF. We used log-binomial regression models with LACE or LE as the predictor and either 30-day composite all-cause readmission or death or 30-day all-cause readmission as the outcomes, adjusting only for post-discharge services. There were 1985 patients (mean [SD] age 78.1 [12.1] years) in the derivation cohort and 378 (mean [SD] age 73.1 [13.2] years) in the validation cohort. Increments in the LACE and LE indices were associated with 17% (RR 1.17; 95% CI 1.12, 1.21; C-statistic 0.64) and 21% (RR 1.21; 95% CI 1.15, 1.26; C-statistic 0.63) increases, respectively, in 30-day composite all-cause readmission or death; and 16% (RR 1.16; 95% CI 1.11, 1.20; C-statistic 0.64) and 18% (RR 1.18; 95% CI 1.13, 1.24; C-statistic 0.62) increases, respectively, in 30-day all-cause readmission. The LE index provided better risk discrimination for the 30-day outcomes than did the LACE index in the external validation cohort.Conclusions
The LE index predicts 30-day outcomes following HF hospitalization with similar or better performance than the more complex LACE index.
SUBMITTER: Averbuch T
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8318488 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:AimsThe LE index (Length of hospitalization plus number of Emergent visits ≤6 months) predicts 30 day all-cause readmission or death following hospitalization for heart failure (HF). We combined N-terminal pro-B type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels with the LE index to derive and validate the LENT index for risk prediction at the point of care on the day of hospital discharge.Methods and resultsIn this prospective cohort sub-study of the Patient-centred Care Transitions in HF clinical trial, we used log-binomial regression models with LE index and either admission or discharge NT-proBNP as the predictors and 30 day composite all-cause readmission or death as the primary outcome. No other variables were added to the model. We used regression coefficients to derive the LENT index and bootstrapping analysis for internal validation. There were 772 patients (mean [SD] age 77.0 [12.4] years, 49.9% female). Each increment in the LE index was associated with a 25% increased risk of the primary outcome (RR 1.25, 95% CI 1.16-1.35; C-statistic 0.63). Adjusted for the LE index, every 10-fold increase in admission and discharge NT-proBNP was associated with a 48% (RR 1.48; 95% CI 1.10, 1.99; C-statistic 0.64; net reclassification index [NRI] 0.19) and 56% (RR 1.56; 95% CI 1.08, 2.25; C-statistic 0.64; NRI 0.21) increased risk of the primary outcome, respectively. The predicted probability of the primary outcome increased to a similar extent with incremental LENT, regardless of whether admission or discharge NT-proBNP level was used.ConclusionsThe point-of-care LENT index predicts 30 day composite all-cause readmission or death among patients hospitalized with HF, with improved risk reclassification compared with the LE index. The performance of this simple, 3-variable index - without adjustment for comorbidities - is comparable to complex risk prediction models in HF.
| S-EPMC7835596 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Emergency department (ED) revisits and 30-day readmissions have been proposed as markers for quality of ED care for sickle cell disease (SCD).To create a scoring system that quantifies the risk of 30-day revisit after ED discharge for SCD vaso-occlusive painThis was a dual-center retrospective derivation and validation cohort study. The derivation was performed at an academic, tertiary care center and the validation at an urban community hospital. The primary outcome was revisit to the ED within 30 days after an ED discharge for SCD pain. Recursive partitioning was used to derive a scoring system to predict 30-day revisits.Of a total of 1456 ED visits for SCD pain, there were 680 ED discharges (admission rate of 53%) in 193 unique individuals included in the derivation cohort. There were 240 (35.3%) 30-day revisits. Of a total of 126 ED visits for SCD, there were 79 ED discharges in 41 unique individuals in the validation cohort. The final risk score included 4 variables: (1) age, (2) insurance status, (3) triage pain score, and (4) amount of opioids administered during the ED visit. Possible scores range from 0 to 6. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.746 (95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.78-derivation cohort) and 0.753 (95% confidence interval, 0.65-0.86-validation cohort). A cutoff of 4 or greater identified 60% of 30-day ED revisits in the derivation cohort and 80% of revisits in the validation cohort.A risk score can identify ED visits for SCD pain with high risk of 30-day revisit.
| S-EPMC4581958 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThirty-day readmission following heart failure hospitalization impacts hospital performance measures and reimbursement. We investigated readmission characteristics and the magnitude of 30-day hospital readmissions after hospital discharge for heart failure using the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases (SID).MethodsAdults aged ≥ 40 years hospitalized with a primary discharge diagnosis of heart failure from 2007-2011 were identified in the California, New York, and Florida SIDs. Characteristics of patients with and without 7-, 8 to 30-, and 30-day readmission, and primary readmission diagnoses and risk factors for readmission were examined.ResultsWe identified 547,068 patients with mean age 74.7 years; 50.7% were female, and 65.4% were White. Of 117,123 patients (21.4%) readmitted within 30 days (median 12 days), 69.7% had a non-heart failure primary readmission diagnosis. Patients with 30-day readmissions more frequently had a history of previous admission with heart failure as a secondary diagnosis, fluid and electrolyte disorders, and chronic deficiency anemia. There were no significant clinical differences at baseline between those patients whose first readmission was in the first 7 days after discharge vs in the next 23 days. The most common primary diagnoses for 30-day non-heart failure readmissions were other cardiovascular conditions (14.9%), pulmonary disease (8.5%), and infections (7.7%).ConclusionsIn this large all-payer cohort, ∼70% of 30-day readmissions were for non-heart failure causes, and the median time to readmission was 12 days. Future interventions to reduce readmissions should focus on common comorbid conditions that contribute to readmission burden.
| S-EPMC5482409 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundClostridioides difficile infection (CDI) is commonly associated with outcomes like recurrence and readmission. The effect of social determinants of health, such as 'neighborhood' socioeconomic disadvantage, on a CDI patient's health outcomes is unclear. Living in a disadvantaged neighborhood could interfere with a CDI patient's ability to follow post-discharge care recommendations and the success probability of these recommendations, thereby increasing risk of readmission. We hypothesized that neighborhood disadvantage was associated with 30-day readmission risk in Medicare patients with CDI.MethodsIn this retrospective cohort study, odds of 30-day readmission for CDI patients are evaluated controlling for patient sociodemographics, comorbidities, and hospital and stay-level variables. The cohort was created from a random 20% national sample of Medicare patients during the first 11 months of 2014.ResultsFrom the cohort of 19,490 patients (39% male; 80% white; 83% 65 years or older), 22% were readmitted within 30 days of an index stay. Unadjusted analyses showed that patients from the most disadvantaged neighborhoods were readmitted at a higher rate than those from less disadvantaged neighborhoods (26% vs. 21% rate: unadjusted OR = 1.32 [1.20, 1.45]). This relationship held in adjusted analyses, in which residence in the most disadvantaged neighborhoods was associated with 16% increased odds of readmission (adjusted OR = 1.16 [1.04, 1.28]).ConclusionsResidence in disadvantaged neighborhoods poses a significantly increased risk of readmission in CDI patients. Further research should focus on in-depth assessments of this population to better understand the mechanisms underlying these risks and if these findings apply to other infectious diseases.
| S-EPMC7565791 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEarly risk stratification for guiding treatment priority in the emergency department (ED) is becoming increasingly important. Existing prediction models typically use demographics, vital signs and laboratory parameters. Laboratory-based models require blood testing, which may cause substantial delay. However, these delays can be prevented by the use of point-of-care testing (POCT), where results are readily available. We aimed to externally validate a laboratory-based model for mortality and subsequently assessed whether a POCT model yields comparable performance.MethodsAll adult patients visiting the ED of a university hospital between January 1st, 2012 and December 31st, 2016 were retrospectively reviewed for inclusion. Primary outcome was defined as 30-day mortality after ED presentation. We externally validated one existing prediction model including age, glucose, urea, sodium, haemoglobin, platelet count and white blood cell count. We assessed the predictive performance by discrimination, expressed as Area under the Curve (AUC). We compared the existing model to an equivalent model using predictors that are available with POCT (i.e. glucose, urea, sodium and haemoglobin). Additionally, we internally validated these models with bootstrapping.ResultsWe included 34,437 patients of whom 1,942 (5.6%) died within 30 days. The AUC of the laboratory-based model was 0.794. We refitted this model to our ED population and found an AUC of 0.812, which decreased only slightly to 0.790 with only POCT parameters.ConclusionsOur POCT-model performs similar to existing laboratory-based models in identifying patients at high risk for mortality, with results available within minutes. Although the model needs further validation and evaluation, it shows the potential of POCT for early risk stratification in the ED.
| S-EPMC7514068 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Readmission within 30 days after hospitalization for heart failure (HF) is a major public health problem.To examine whether timing and type of post-discharge follow-up impacts risk of 30-day readmission in adults hospitalized for HF.Nested matched case-control study (January 1, 2006-June 30, 2013).A large, integrated health care delivery system in Northern California.Hospitalized adults with a primary diagnosis of HF discharged to home without hospice care.Outpatient visits and telephone calls with cardiology and general medicine providers in non-emergency department and non-urgent care settings were counted as follow-up care. Statistical adjustments were made for differences in patient sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, acute severity of illness, hospitalization characteristics, and post-discharge medication changes and laboratory testing.Among 11,985 eligible adults, early initial outpatient contact within 7 days after discharge was associated with lower odds of readmission [adjusted odds ratio (OR)=0.81; 95% CI, 0.70-0.94], whereas later outpatient contact between 8 and 30 days after hospital discharge was not significantly associated with readmission (adjusted OR=0.99; 95% CI, 0.82-1.19). Initial contact by telephone was associated with lower adjusted odds of 30-day readmission (adjusted OR=0.85; 95% CI, 0.69-1.06) but was not statistically significant.In adults discharged to home after hospitalization for HF, outpatient follow-up with a cardiology or general medicine provider within 7 days was associated with a lower chance of 30-day readmission.
| S-EPMC4800825 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceRates of 30-day readmissions following hospitalization for pneumonia are used to publicly report on hospital performance and to set financial penalties for the worst-performing hospitals. However, the rate of avoidable readmission following hospitalization for pneumonia is undefined.ObjectiveTo assess how often 30-day readmissions following hospitalization for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) are avoidable.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study analyzed the results of an independent review of readmissions following hospitalization for CAP within 30 days among patients discharged from 2 large hospitals in France in 2014. Structured clinical records including clinical information (ie, baseline characteristics, physical examination, laboratory findings, x-ray or computed tomography scan findings, discharge plan, and treatments) for both index and readmission stays were independently reviewed by 4 certified board physicians. All consecutive adult patients hospitalized in 2014 with a diagnosis of CAP in our 2 eligible hospitals were eligible. All analyses presented were performed in March 2021.Main outcomes and measuresAvoidable readmission within 30 days of discharge from index hospitalization. The likelihood that a readmission was avoidable was quantified using latent class analysis based on the independent reviews. A readmission was considered avoidable if Bayes posterior probability exceeded 50%.ResultsThe total analytical sample consisted of 1150 index hospital stays with a diagnosis of CAP, which included 651 (56.6%) male patients. The median (IQR) age for all patients was 77.8 (IQR, 62.7-86.4) years. Out of the 1150 index hospital stays, 98 patients (8.5%) died in hospital, and 108 (9.4%) unplanned readmissions were found. Overall, 15 readmissions had a posterior probability of avoidability exceeding 0.50 (13.9% of the 108 unplanned readmissions; 95% CI, 8.0%-21.9%). The median (IQR) delay between the hospital discharge index and readmission was considerably shorter when readmission was deemed avoidable (4 [6-21] days vs 12 [2-18] days; P = .02).Conclusions and relevanceOnly a small number of readmissions following hospitalization for CAP were deemed avoidable, comprising less than 10% of all readmissions. Shorter time interval between hospitalization discharge and readmission was associated with avoidability.
| S-EPMC8994128 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPatients with acute heart failure (HF) are at high risk of 30-day readmission. Little is known about the characteristics and associated factors of 30-day readmissions among patients with acute HF in China.MethodsWe enrolled consecutive patients hospitalized for acute HF and discharged from 52 hospitals in China from August 2016 to May 2018. We describe the rate of 30-day readmission, the time interval from discharge to readmission, and the causes of readmission. We also analyzed the factors associated with readmission risk by fitting multivariate Cox proportional hazards models.ResultsWe included 4875 patients with a median age of 67 years (interquartile range, 57-75), 3045 (62.5%) of whom were male. Within 30 days after discharge, 613 (12.6%) patients were readmitted for all causes, with a median from discharge to readmission of 12 (6-21) days. Most readmissions were attributed to cardiovascular causes (71.1%) and 60.0% to HF-related causes. Readmission occurred within 14 days of discharge in more than half of the patients (56.4%). Diabetes (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.25, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.06-1.50), anemia (HR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.03-1.53), high New York Heart Association classification (HR: 1.48, 95% CI: 1.08-2.01), elevated N-terminal pro-B type natriuretic peptide (HR: 1.67, 95% CI: 1.24-2.25), and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (HR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.01-1.58) were associated with increased risks of readmission. High systolic blood pressure (HR: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.38-0.81) and Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire-12 scores (HR: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.44-0.94) were associated with decreased risk of readmission.ConclusionsIn China, almost one in eight patients with acute HF were readmitted within 30 days after discharge, mainly due to cardiovascular reasons, and approximately three-fifths of the readmissions occurred in the first 14 days. Both clinical and patient-centered characteristics were associated with readmission.
| S-EPMC11366993 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and Objectives: The prevalence and incidence of heart failure (HF) have been increasing in recent years as the population ages. These patients show a distinct profile of comorbidity, which makes their care more complex. In recent years, the PROFUND index, a specific tool for estimating the mortality rate at one year in pluripathology patients, has been developed. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of the PROFUND index and of in-hospital and 30-day mortality after discharge of patients admitted for acute heart failure (AHF). Materials and Methods: A prospective multicenter longitudinal study was performed that included patients admitted with AHF and ≥2 comorbid conditions. Clinical, analytical, and prognostic variables were collected. The PROFUND index was collected in all patients and rates of in-hospital and 30-day mortality after discharge were analyzed. A bivariate analysis was performed with quantitative variables between patients who died and those who survived at the 30-day follow-up. A logistic regression analysis was performed with the variables that obtained statistical significance in the bivariate analysis between deceased and surviving subjects. Results: A total of 128 patients were included. Mean age was 80.5 +/- 9.98 years, and women represented 51.6%. The mean PROFUND index was 5.26 +/- 4.5. The mortality rate was 8.6% in-hospital and 20.3% at 30 days. Preserved left ventricular ejection fraction was found in 60.9%. In the sample studied, there were patients with a PROFUND score < 7 predominated (89 patients (70%) versus 39 patients (31%) with a PROFUND score ≥ 7). Thirteen patients (15%) with a PROFUND score < 7 died versus the 13 (33%) with a PROFUND score ≥ 7, p = 0.03. Twelve patients (15%) with a PROFUND score < 7 required readmission versus 12 patients (35%) with a PROFUND score ≥ 7, p = 0.02. The ROC curve of the PROFUND index for in-hospital mortality and 30-day follow-up in patients with AHF showed AUC 0.63, CI: 95% (0.508-0.764), p <0.033. Conclusions: The PROFUND index is a clinical tool that may be useful for predicting short-term mortality in elderly patients with AHF. Further studies with larger simple sizes are required to validate these results.
| S-EPMC8618627 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCoronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and surgical aortic valve replacement (AVR) are the 2 most common cardiac surgery procedures in North America. We derived and externally validated clinical models to estimate the likelihood of death within 30 days of CABG, AVR or combined CABG + AVR.MethodsWe obtained data from the CorHealth Ontario Cardiac Registry and several linked population health administrative databases from Ontario, Canada. We derived multiple logistic regression models from all adult patients who underwent CABG, AVR or combined CABG + AVR from April 2017 to March 2019, and validated them in 2 temporally distinct cohorts (April 2015 to March 2017 and April 2019 to March 2020).ResultsThe derivation cohorts included 13 435 patients who underwent CABG (30-d mortality 1.73%), 1970 patients who underwent AVR (30-d mortality 1.68%) and 1510 patients who underwent combined CABG + AVR (30-d mortality 3.05%). The final models for predicting 30-day mortality included 15 variables for patients undergoing CABG, 5 variables for patients undergoing AVR and 5 variables for patients undergoing combined CABG + AVR. Model discrimination was excellent for the CABG (c-statistic 0.888, optimism-corrected 0.866) AVR (c-statistic 0.850, optimism-corrected 0.762) and CABG + AVR (c-statistic 0.844, optimism-corrected 0.776) models, with similar results in the validation cohorts.InterpretationOur models, leveraging readily available, multidimensional data sources, computed accurate risk-adjusted 30-day mortality rates for CABG, AVR and combined CABG + AVR, with discrimination comparable to more complex American and European models. The ability to accurately predict perioperative mortality rates for these procedures will be valuable for quality improvement initiatives across institutions.
| S-EPMC8608458 | biostudies-literature