Dataset Information

Using electronic health records to develop and validate a machine-learning tool to predict type 2 diabetes outcomes: a study protocol.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a major cause of blindness, kidney failure, myocardial infarction, stroke and lower limb amputation. We are still unable, however, to accurately predict or identify which patients are at a higher risk of deterioration. Most risk stratification tools do not account for novel factors such as sociodemographic determinants, self-management ability or access to healthcare. Additionally, most tools are based in clinical trials, with limited external generalisability.

Objective

The aim of this work is to design and validate a machine learning-based tool to identify patients with T2DM at high risk of clinical deterioration, based on a comprehensive set of patient-level characteristics retrieved from a population health linked dataset.

Sample and design

Retrospective cohort study of patients with diagnosis of T2DM on 1 January 2015, with a 5-year follow-up. Anonymised electronic healthcare records from the Whole System Integrated Care (WSIC) database will be used.

Preliminary outcomes

Outcome variables of clinical deterioration will include retinopathy, chronic renal disease, myocardial infarction, stroke, peripheral arterial disease or death. Predictor variables will include sociodemographic and geographic data, patients' ability to self-manage disease, clinical and metabolic parameters and healthcare service usage. Prognostic models will be defined using multidependence Bayesian networks. The derivation cohort, comprising 80% of the patients, will be used to define the prognostic models. Model parameters will be internally validated by comparing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the derivation cohort with those calculated from a leave-one-out and a 10 times twofold cross-validation.

Ethics and dissemination

The study has received approvals from the Information Governance Committee at the WSIC. Results will be made available to people with T2DM, their caregivers, the funders, diabetes care societies and other researchers.

SUBMITTER: Neves AL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8327849 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:Diabetes is a metabolic disorder that affects more than 420 million of people worldwide, and it is caused by the presence of a high level of sugar in blood for a long period. Diabetes can have serious long-term health consequences, such as cardiovascular diseases, strokes, chronic kidney diseases, foot ulcers, retinopathy, and others. Even if common, this disease is uneasy to spot, because it often comes with no symptoms. Especially for diabetes type 2, that happens mainly in the adults, knowing how long the diabetes has been present for a patient can have a strong impact on the treatment they can receive. This information, although pivotal, might be absent: for some patients, in fact, the year when they received the diabetes diagnosis might be well-known, but the year of the disease unset might be unknown. In this context, machine learning applied to electronic health records can be an effective tool to predict the past duration of diabetes for a patient. In this study, we applied a regression analysis based on several computational intelligence methods to a dataset of electronic health records of 73 patients with diabetes type 1 with 20 variables and another dataset of records of 400 patients of diabetes type 2 with 49 variables. Among the algorithms applied, Random Forests was able to outperform the other ones and to efficiently predict diabetes duration for both the cohorts, with the regression performances measured through the coefficient of determination R2. Afterwards, we applied the same method for feature ranking, and we detected the most relevant factors of the clinical records correlated with past diabetes duration: age, insulin intake, and body-mass index. Our study discoveries can have profound impact on clinical practice: when the information about the duration of diabetes of patient is missing, medical doctors can use our tool and focus on age, insulin intake, and body-mass index to infer this important aspect. Regarding limitations, unfortunately we were unable to find additional dataset of EHRs of patients with diabetes having the same variables of the two analyzed here, so we could not verify our findings on a validation cohort.

Project description:ObjectiveTo discover diverse genotype-phenotype associations affiliated with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) via genome-wide association study (GWAS) and phenome-wide association study (PheWAS), more cases (T2DM subjects) and controls (subjects without T2DM) are required to be identified (e.g., via Electronic Health Records (EHR)). However, existing expert based identification algorithms often suffer in a low recall rate and could miss a large number of valuable samples under conservative filtering standards. The goal of this work is to develop a semi-automated framework based on machine learning as a pilot study to liberalize filtering criteria to improve recall rate with a keeping of low false positive rate.Materials and methodsWe propose a data informed framework for identifying subjects with and without T2DM from EHR via feature engineering and machine learning. We evaluate and contrast the identification performance of widely-used machine learning models within our framework, including k-Nearest-Neighbors, Naïve Bayes, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine and Logistic Regression. Our framework was conducted on 300 patient samples (161 cases, 60 controls and 79 unconfirmed subjects), randomly selected from 23,281 diabetes related cohort retrieved from a regional distributed EHR repository ranging from 2012 to 2014.ResultsWe apply top-performing machine learning algorithms on the engineered features. We benchmark and contrast the accuracy, precision, AUC, sensitivity and specificity of classification models against the state-of-the-art expert algorithm for identification of T2DM subjects. Our results indicate that the framework achieved high identification performances (∼0.98 in average AUC), which are much higher than the state-of-the-art algorithm (0.71 in AUC).DiscussionExpert algorithm-based identification of T2DM subjects from EHR is often hampered by the high missing rates due to their conservative selection criteria. Our framework leverages machine learning and feature engineering to loosen such selection criteria to achieve a high identification rate of cases and controls.ConclusionsOur proposed framework demonstrates a more accurate and efficient approach for identifying subjects with and without T2DM from EHR.

Project description:IntroductionPredictive models have been used to aid early diagnosis of PCOS, though existing models are based on small sample sizes and limited to fertility clinic populations. We built a predictive model using machine learning algorithms based on an outpatient population at risk for PCOS to predict risk and facilitate earlier diagnosis, particularly among those who meet diagnostic criteria but have not received a diagnosis.MethodsThis is a retrospective cohort study from a SafetyNet hospital's electronic health records (EHR) from 2003-2016. The study population included 30,601 women aged 18-45 years without concurrent endocrinopathy who had any visit to Boston Medical Center for primary care, obstetrics and gynecology, endocrinology, family medicine, or general internal medicine. Four prediction outcomes were assessed for PCOS. The first outcome was PCOS ICD-9 diagnosis with additional model outcomes of algorithm-defined PCOS. The latter was based on Rotterdam criteria and merging laboratory values, radiographic imaging, and ICD data from the EHR to define irregular menstruation, hyperandrogenism, and polycystic ovarian morphology on ultrasound.ResultsWe developed predictive models using four machine learning methods: logistic regression, supported vector machine, gradient boosted trees, and random forests. Hormone values (follicle-stimulating hormone, luteinizing hormone, estradiol, and sex hormone binding globulin) were combined to create a multilayer perceptron score using a neural network classifier. Prediction of PCOS prior to clinical diagnosis in an out-of-sample test set of patients achieved an average AUC of 85%, 81%, 80%, and 82%, respectively in Models I, II, III and IV. Significant positive predictors of PCOS diagnosis across models included hormone levels and obesity; negative predictors included gravidity and positive bHCG.ConclusionMachine learning algorithms were used to predict PCOS based on a large at-risk population. This approach may guide early detection of PCOS within EHR-interfaced populations to facilitate counseling and interventions that may reduce long-term health consequences. Our model illustrates the potential benefits of an artificial intelligence-enabled provider assistance tool that can be integrated into the EHR to reduce delays in diagnosis. However, model validation in other hospital-based populations is necessary.