An Assessment of the Factors Influencing the Prediction Accuracy of Genomic Prediction Models Across Multiple Environments.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Widener S
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8343134 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Genomic selection has been proposed as the standard method to predict breeding values in animal and plant breeding. Although some crops have benefited from this methodology, studies in Coffea are still emerging. To date, there have been no studies describing how well genomic prediction models work across populations and environments for different complex traits in coffee. Considering that predictive models are based on biological and statistical assumptions, it is expected that their performance vary depending on how well these assumptions align with the true genetic architecture of the phenotype. To investigate this, we used data from two recurrent selection populations of Coffea canephora, evaluated in two locations, and single nucleotide polymorphisms identified by Genotyping-by-Sequencing. In particular, we evaluated the performance of 13 statistical approaches to predict three important traits in the coffee-production of coffee beans, leaf rust incidence and yield of green beans. Analyses were performed for predictions within-environment, across locations and across populations to assess the reliability of genomic selection. Overall, differences in the prediction accuracy of the competing models were small, although the Bayesian methods showed a modest improvement over other methods, at the cost of more computation time. As expected, predictive accuracy for within-environment analysis, on average, were higher than predictions across locations and across populations. Our results support the potential of genomic selection to reshape traditional plant breeding schemes. In practice, we expect to increase the genetic gain per unit of time by reducing the length cycle of recurrent selection in coffee.
| S-EPMC6460747 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Genomic selection (GS) has successfully been used in plant breeding to improve selection efficiency and reduce breeding time and cost. However, there has not been a study to evaluate GS prediction models that may be used for predicting cotton breeding lines across multiple environments. In this study, we evaluated the performance of Bayes Ridge Regression, BayesA, BayesB, BayesC and Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces regression models. We then extended the single-site GS model to accommodate genotype × environment interaction (G×E) in order to assess the merits of multi- over single-environment models in a practical breeding and selection context in cotton, a crop for which this has not previously been evaluated. Our study was based on a population of 215 upland cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) breeding lines which were evaluated for fiber length and strength at multiple locations in Australia and genotyped with 13,330 single nucleotide polymorphic (SNP) markers. BayesB, which assumes unique variance for each marker and a proportion of markers to have large effects, while most other markers have zero effect, was the preferred model. GS accuracy for fiber length based on a single-site model varied across sites, ranging from 0.27 to 0.77 (mean = 0.38), while that of fiber strength ranged from 0.19 to 0.58 (mean = 0.35) using randomly selected sub-populations as the training population. Prediction accuracies from the M×E model were higher than those for single-site and across-site models, with an average accuracy of 0.71 and 0.59 for fiber length and strength, respectively. The use of the M×E model could therefore identify which breeding lines have effects that are stable across environments and which ones are responsible for G×E and so reduce the amount of phenotypic screening required in cotton breeding programs to identify adaptable genotypes.
| S-EPMC5940163 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Genetic correlations between quantitative traits measured in many breeding programs are pervasive. These correlations indicate that measurements of one trait carry information on other traits. Current single-trait (univariate) genomic selection does not take advantage of this information. Multivariate genomic selection on multiple traits could accomplish this but has been little explored and tested in practical breeding programs. In this study, three multivariate linear models (i.e., GBLUP, BayesA, and BayesC?) were presented and compared to univariate models using simulated and real quantitative traits controlled by different genetic architectures. We also extended BayesA with fixed hyperparameters to a full hierarchical model that estimated hyperparameters and BayesC? to impute missing phenotypes. We found that optimal marker-effect variance priors depended on the genetic architecture of the trait so that estimating them was beneficial. We showed that the prediction accuracy for a low-heritability trait could be significantly increased by multivariate genomic selection when a correlated high-heritability trait was available. Further, multiple-trait genomic selection had higher prediction accuracy than single-trait genomic selection when phenotypes are not available on all individuals and traits. Additional factors affecting the performance of multiple-trait genomic selection were explored.
| S-EPMC3512156 | biostudies-literature
Project description:A three-dimensional model of the leucine zipper GCN4 built from its amino acid sequence had been reported previously by us. When the two alternative x-ray structures of the GCN4 dimer became available, the root mean square (r.m.s.) shifts between our model and the structures were determined as approximately 2.7 A on all atoms. These values are similar to the r.m.s. shift of 2.8 A between the two GCN4 structures in the different crystal forms (C2 and P2(1)2(1)2(1)). CONGEN conformational searches were run to better understand the conditions that may determine the preference of different conformers in different environments and to test the sensitivity of our current modeling techniques. With a judicious choice of CONGEN search parameters, the backbone r.m.s. deviation improved to 0.8 A and 2.5 A on all atoms. The side-chain conformations of Val and Leu at the helical interface were well reproduced (1.2 A r.m.s.), and the large side-chain misplacements occurred with only a small number of charged amino acids and a tyrosine. Inclusion of the crystal environment (C2 symmetry), as a passive background, into the side-chain conformational search further improved the accuracy of the model to an r.m.s. deviation of 2.1 A. Conformational searches carried out in the two different crystal environments and employing the AMBER protein/DNA forcefield, as implemented in CONGEN, gave the r.m.s. values of 2.2 A (for the C2 symmetry) and 2.5 A (for the P2(1)2(1)2(1) symmetry). In the C2 symmetry crystal, as much as 40% of the surface of each dimer was involved in crystal contacts with other dimers, and the charged residues on the surface often interacted with immobilized water molecules. Thus, occasional large r.m.s. deviations between the model and the x-ray side chains were due to specific conditions that did not occur in solution.
| S-EPMC1225039 | biostudies-other
Project description:Genomic selection has become a reality in plant breeding programs with the reduction in genotyping costs. Especially in maize breeding programs, it emerges as a promising tool for predicting hybrid performance. The dynamics of a commercial breeding program involve the evaluation of several traits simultaneously in a large set of target environments. Therefore, multi-trait multi-environment (MTME) genomic prediction models can leverage these datasets by exploring the correlation between traits and Genotype-by-Environment (G×E) interaction. Herein, we assess predictive abilities of univariate and multivariate genomic prediction models in a maize breeding program. To this end, we used data from 415 maize hybrids evaluated in 4 years of second season field trials for the traits grain yield, number of ears, and grain moisture. Genotypes of these hybrids were inferred in silico based on their parental inbred lines using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) markers obtained via genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS). Because genotypic information was available for only 257 hybrids, we used the genomic and pedigree relationship matrices to obtain the H matrix for all 415 hybrids. Our results demonstrated that in the single-environment context the use of multi-trait models was always superior in comparison to their univariate counterparts. Besides that, although MTME models were not particularly successful in predicting hybrid performance in untested years, they improved the ability to predict the performance of hybrids that had not been evaluated in any environment. However, the computational requirements of this kind of model could represent a limitation to its practical implementation and further investigation is necessary.
| S-EPMC7413256 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Genomic selection (GS) can accelerate variety improvement when training set (TS) size and its relationship with the breeding set (BS) are optimized for prediction accuracies (PAs) of genomic prediction (GP) models. Sixteen GP algorithms were run on phenotypic best linear unbiased predictors (BLUPs) and estimators (BLUEs) of resistance to both fall armyworm (FAW) and maize weevil (MW) in a tropical maize panel. For MW resistance, 37% of the panel was the TS, and the BS was the remainder, whilst for FAW, random-based training sets (RBTS) and pedigree-based training sets (PBTSs) were designed. PAs achieved with BLUPs varied from 0.66 to 0.82 for MW-resistance traits, and for FAW resistance, 0.694 to 0.714 for RBTS of 37%, and 0.843 to 0.844 for RBTS of 85%, and these were at least two-fold those from BLUEs. For PBTS, FAW resistance PAs were generally higher than those for RBTS, except for one dataset. GP models generally showed similar PAs across individual traits whilst the TS designation was determinant, since a positive correlation (R = 0.92***) between TS size and PAs was observed for RBTS, and for the PBTS, it was negative (R = 0.44**). This study pioneered the use of GS for maize resistance to insect pests in sub-Saharan Africa.
| S-EPMC7823878 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveThe purpose of this study is to investigate the independent influencing factors of the transition from normal population to prediabetes, and from prediabetes to diabetes, and to further construct clinical prediction models to provide a basis for the prevention and management of prediabetes and diabetes.Materials and methodsThe data for this study were based on clinical information of participants from the Health Management Center of Peking University Shenzhen Hospital. Participants were classified into normal group, prediabetes group, and diabetes group according to their functional status of glucose metabolism. Spearman's correlation coefficients were calculated for the variables, and a matrix diagram was plotted. Further, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were conducted to explore the independent influencing factors. The independent influencing factors were used as predictors to construct the full-variable prediction model (Full.model) and simplified prediction model (Simplified.model).ResultsThis study included a total of 5310 subjects and 22 variables, among which there were 1593(30%) in the normal group, 3150(59.3%) in the prediabetes group, and 567(10.7%) in the diabetes group. The results of the multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that there were significant differences in 9 variables between the normal group and the prediabetes group, including age(Age), body mass index(BMI), systolic blood pressure(SBP), urinary glucose(U.GLU), urinary protein(PRO), total protein(TP), globulin(GLB), alanine aminotransferase(ALT), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol(HDL-C). There were significant differences in 7 variables between the prediabetes group and the diabetes group, including Age, BMI, SBP, U.GLU, PRO, triglycerides(TG), and HDL.C. The Full.model and Simplified.model constructed based on the above influencing factors had moderate discriminative power in both the training set and the test set.ConclusionAge, BMI, SBP, U.GLU, PRO, TP, and ALT are independent risk factors, while GLB and HDL.C are independent protective factors for the development of prediabetes in the normal population. Age, BMI, SBP, U.GLU, PRO, and TG are independent risk factors, while HDL.C is an independent protective factor for the progression from prediabetes to diabetes. The Full.model and Simplified.model developed based on these influencing factors have moderate discriminative power.
| S-EPMC10640999 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Key messageThe accuracy of genomic prediction of phenotypes can be increased by including the top-ranked pairwise SNP interactions into the prediction model. We compared the predictive ability of various prediction models for a maize dataset derived from 910 doubled haploid lines from two European landraces (Kemater Landmais Gelb and Petkuser Ferdinand Rot), which were tested at six locations in Germany and Spain. The compared models were Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (GBLUP) as an additive model, Epistatic Random Regression BLUP (ERRBLUP) accounting for all pairwise SNP interactions, and selective Epistatic Random Regression BLUP (sERRBLUP) accounting for a selected subset of pairwise SNP interactions. These models have been compared in both univariate and bivariate statistical settings for predictions within and across environments. Our results indicate that modeling all pairwise SNP interactions into the univariate/bivariate model (ERRBLUP) is not superior in predictive ability to the respective additive model (GBLUP). However, incorporating only a selected subset of interactions with the highest effect variances in univariate/bivariate sERRBLUP can increase predictive ability significantly compared to the univariate/bivariate GBLUP. Overall, bivariate models consistently outperform univariate models in predictive ability. Across all studied traits, locations and landraces, the increase in prediction accuracy from univariate GBLUP to univariate sERRBLUP ranged from 5.9 to 112.4 percent, with an average increase of 47 percent. For bivariate models, the change ranged from -0.3 to + 27.9 percent comparing the bivariate sERRBLUP to the bivariate GBLUP, with an average increase of 11 percent. This considerable increase in predictive ability achieved by sERRBLUP may be of interest for "sparse testing" approaches in which only a subset of the lines/hybrids of interest is observed at each location.
| S-EPMC8354961 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundA multi-population genomic prediction (GP) model in which important pre-selected single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are differentially weighted (MPMG) has been shown to result in better prediction accuracy than a multi-population, single genomic relationship matrix ([Formula: see text]) GP model (MPSG) in which all SNPs are weighted equally. Our objective was to underpin theoretically the advantages and limits of the MPMG model over the MPSG model, by deriving and validating a deterministic prediction equation for its accuracy.MethodsUsing selection index theory, we derived an equation to predict the accuracy of estimated total genomic values of selection candidates from population [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]), when individuals from two populations, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], are combined in the training population and two [Formula: see text], made respectively from pre-selected and remaining SNPs, are fitted simultaneously in MPMG. We used simulations to validate the prediction equation in scenarios that differed in the level of genetic correlation between populations, heritability, and proportion of genetic variance explained by the pre-selected SNPs. Empirical accuracy of the MPMG model in each scenario was calculated and compared to the predicted accuracy from the equation.ResultsIn general, the derived prediction equation resulted in accurate predictions of [Formula: see text] for the scenarios evaluated. Using the prediction equation, we showed that an important advantage of the MPMG model over the MPSG model is its ability to benefit from the small number of independent chromosome segments ([Formula: see text]) due to the pre-selected SNPs, both within and across populations, whereas for the MPSG model, there is only a single value for [Formula: see text], calculated based on all SNPs, which is very large. However, this advantage is dependent on the pre-selected SNPs that explain some proportion of the total genetic variance for the trait.ConclusionsWe developed an equation that gives insight into why, and under which conditions the MPMG outperforms the MPSG model for GP. The equation can be used as a deterministic tool to assess the potential benefit of combining information from different populations, e.g., different breeds or lines for GP in livestock or plants, or different groups of people based on their ethnic background for prediction of disease risk scores.
| S-EPMC7189707 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Feed represents the major cost of chicken production. Selection for improving feed utilization is a feasible way to reduce feed cost and greenhouse gas emissions. The objectives of this study were to investigate the efficiency of genomic prediction for feed conversion ratio (FCR), residual feed intake (RFI), average daily gain (ADG) and average daily feed intake (ADFI) and to assess the impact of selection for feed efficiency traits FCR and RFI on eviscerating percentage (EP), breast muscle percentage (BMP) and leg muscle percentage (LMP) in meat-type chickens. Genomic prediction was assessed using a 4-fold cross-validation for two validation scenarios. The first scenario was a random family sampling validation (CVF), and the second scenario was a random individual sampling validation (CVR). Variance components were estimated based on the genomic relationship built with single nucleotide polymorphism markers. Genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV) were predicted using a genomic best linear unbiased prediction model. The accuracies of GEBV were evaluated in two ways: the correlation between GEBV and corrected phenotypic value divided by the square root of heritability, i.e., the correlation-based accuracy, and model-based theoretical accuracy. Breeding values were also predicted using a conventional pedigree-based best linear unbiased prediction model in order to compare accuracies of genomic and conventional predictions. The heritability estimates of FCR and RFI were 0.29 and 0.50, respectively. The heritability estimates of ADG, ADFI, EP, BMP and LMP ranged from 0.34 to 0.53. In the CVF scenario, the correlation-based accuracy and the theoretical accuracy of genomic prediction for FCR were slightly higher than those for RFI. The correlation-based accuracies for FCR, RFI, ADG and ADFI were 0.360, 0.284, 0.574 and 0.520, respectively, and the model-based theoretical accuracies were 0.420, 0.414, 0.401 and 0.382, respectively. In the CVR scenario, the correlation-based accuracy and the theoretical accuracy of genomic prediction for FCR was lower than RFI, which was different from the CVF scenario. The correlation-based accuracies for FCR, RFI, ADG and ADFI were 0.449, 0.593, 0.581 and 0.627, respectively, and the model-based theoretical accuracies were 0.577, 0.629, 0.631 and 0.638, respectively. The accuracies of genomic predictions were 0.371 and 0.322 higher than the conventional pedigree-based predictions for the CVF and CVR scenarios, respectively. The genetic correlations of FCR with EP, BMP and LMP were -0.427, -0.156 and -0.338, respectively. The correlations between RFI and the three carcass traits were -0.320, -0.404 and -0.353, respectively. These results indicate that RFI and FCR have a moderate accuracy of genomic prediction. Improving RFI and FCR could be favourable for EP, BMP and LMP. Compared with FCR, which can be improved by selection for ADG in typical meat-type chicken breeding programs, selection for RFI could lead to extra improvement in feed efficiency.
| S-EPMC5344482 | biostudies-literature