Redistributive effects of fiscal policies in Mexico: Corrections for top income measurement problems.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Hlasny V
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8362083 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Which are the effects of pandemics on the returns to factors of production? Are these effects persistent over time? These questions have received renewed interest after the out-burst of deaths caused by Covid-19. The Spanish Flu is the closest pandemic to Covid-19. In this paper, we analyze the impact of the Spanish Flu on the returns to labor and capital in Spain. Spain is an ideal country to perform this exercise. First, the "excess death rate" was one of the largest in Western Europe and it varied substantially across regions. Second, Spain was transitioning towards industrialization, with regions in different stages of development. Third, Spain was developed enough to have reliable data. We identify the effect of the Spanish Flu by exploiting within-country variation in "excess death rate". Our main result is that the effect of the Spanish Flu on daily real wages was large, negative, and broadly short-lived. The effects are heterogeneous across occupations and regions. The negative effects are exacerbated in (i) occupations producing non-essential goods like shoemakers and (ii) more urbanized provinces. Quantitatively, relative to pre-1918, the decline for the average region ranges from null to around 30 percent. In addition, we fail to find significant negative effects of the flu on returns to capital. Whereas the results for dividends are imprecisely estimated (we cannot reject a null effect), the effect on real estate prices (houses and land), driven by the post-1918 recovery, is positive. Experts on inequality have argued that pandemics have equalizing effects especially in a Malthusian setting, due to real wage increases. Our findings suggest that, at least, for a developing economy like Spain in the early 20th century, this result does not apply. Indeed, we document that the flu pandemic was conducive to a (short-run) reduction in real wages. In addition, we interpret our heterogeneous results as suggestive evidence that pandemics represent a demand shock.
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Project description:Excise duties on roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco, which are generally based on RYO cigarettes containing 1 g of tobacco, are lower than duties on factory-made (FM) cigarettes. This provides a price incentive for smokers to switch to RYO, the use of which is increasing across Europe. To effectively approximate duties on the two types of products, accurate data on the weight of RYO cigarettes are required. We provide updated information on RYO use and RYO cigarette weight across Europe. From a representative face-to-face survey conducted in 2010 in 18 European countries (Albania, Austria, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, England, Finland, France, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain and Sweden), we considered data from 5158 current smokers aged 15 years or above, with available information on daily consumption of FM and RYO cigarettes separately. In Europe, 10.4% of current smokers (12.9% of men and 7.5% of women) were 'predominant' RYO users (i.e. >50% of cigarettes smoked). This proportion was highest in England (27.3%), France (16.5%) and Finland (13.6%). The median weight of one RYO cigarette is 0.75 g (based on 192 smokers consuming exclusively RYO cigarettes). The proportion of RYO smokers is substantial in several European countries. Our finding on the weight of RYO cigarettes is consistent with the scientific literature and industry documents showing that the weight of RYO cigarettes is substantially lower than that of FM ones. Basing excise duties on RYO on an average cigarette weight of 0.75 g rather than 1 g would help increase the excise levels to those on FM cigarettes.
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Project description:We propose a general analytical framework to model the redistributive features of alternative pension systems when individuals face ex ante differences in mortality. Differences in life expectancy between high and low socioeconomic groups are often large and have widened recently in many countries. Such longevity gaps affect the actuarial fairness and progressivity of public pension systems. However, behavioral responses to longevity and policy complicate analysis of possible reforms. Here we consider how various pension systems would perform in an OLG setting with heterogeneous longevity and ability. We evaluate redistributive effects of three Notional Defined Contribution plans and three Defined Benefit plans, calibrated on the US case. Compared to a benchmark non-redistributive plan that accounts for differences in mortality, US Social Security reduces regressivity from longevity differences, but would require group-specific life tables to achieve progressivity. Moreover, without separate life tables, despite apparent accounting gains, lower income groups would suffer welfare losses and higher income groups would enjoy welfare gains through indirect effects of pension systems on labor supply.
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Project description:The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has brought the global economy to a crisis: how to choose the optimal policy tools to cope with the external impacts has attracted worldwide attention. The research evaluates the effects of China's fiscal and monetary policies in promoting economic recovery by establishing a CGE model. Five representative countermeasures such as exempting value-added tax (VAT) and cutting loan rates are studied. The results indicate that: from the aspect of fiscal policies, increasing investment shows a better effect in boosting economy compared with exempting VAT and increasing medical care expenditures; however, the policy also causes price inflation (+0.45%) and crowding-out of enterprise investment (-0.03%). From the aspect of monetary policies, providing targeted loans to enterprises has a better boosting effect on economy compared with cutting loan rates. In the choice between fiscal or monetary policies, fiscal policies exert better effects (household income, +0.95%) when taking the improvement of residents' welfare as the objective. If taking promoting recovery of enterprises and boosting the economy as objectives, monetary policies are found to be better (GDP, +1.99%). Therefore, fiscal and monetary policies should be guided by different objectives and allowed to work in a synergistic manner.
| S-EPMC9650139 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThis paper contributes to the evidence-base on prices and alcohol use by presenting meta-analytic summaries of price and income elasticities for alcohol beverages. The analysis improves on previous meta-analyses by correcting for outliers and publication bias.MethodsAdjusting for outliers is important to avoid assigning too much weight to studies with very small standard errors or large effect sizes. Trimmed samples are used for this purpose. Correcting for publication bias is important to avoid giving too much weight to studies that reflect selection by investigators or others involved with publication processes. Cumulative meta-analysis is proposed as a method to avoid or reduce publication bias, resulting in more robust estimates. The literature search obtained 182 primary studies for aggregate alcohol consumption, which exceeds the database used in previous reviews and meta-analyses.ResultsFor individual beverages, corrected price elasticities are smaller (less elastic) by 28-29 percent compared with consensus averages frequently used for alcohol beverages. The average price and income elasticities are: beer, -0.30 and 0.50; wine, -0.45 and 1.00; and spirits, -0.55 and 1.00. For total alcohol, the price elasticity is -0.50 and the income elasticity is 0.60.ConclusionsThese new results imply that attempts to reduce alcohol consumption through price or tax increases will be less effective or more costly than previously claimed.
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Project description:ContextPoor diet has been implicated in a range of noncommunicable diseases. Fiscal and pricing policies (FPs) may offer a means by which consumption of food and non-alcoholic beverages with links to such diseases can be influenced to improve public health.ObjectiveTo examine the acceptability of FPs to reduce diet-related noncommunicable disease, based on systematic review evidence.Data sourcesMEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychInfo, SCI, SSCI, Web of Science, Scopus, EconLit, the Cochrane Library, Epistemonikos, and the Campbell Collaboration Library were searched for relevant studies published between January 1, 1990 and June 2021.Data extractionThe studies included systematic reviews of diet-related FPs and: used real-world evidence; examined real or perceived barriers/facilitators; targeted the price of food or non-alcoholic beverages; and applied to entire populations within a jurisdiction. A total of 9996 unique relevant records were identified, which were augmented by a search of bibliographies and recommendations from an external expert advisory panel. Following screening, 4 systematic reviews remained.Data analysisQuality appraisal was conducted using the AMSTAR 2 tool. A narrative synthesis was undertaken, with outcomes grouped according to the WHO-INTEGRATE criteria. The findings indicated a paucity of high-quality systematic review evidence and limited public support for the use of FPs to change dietary habits. This lack of support was related to a number of factors that included: their perceived potential to be regressive; a lack of transparency, ie, there was mistrust around the use of revenues raised; a paucity of evidence around health benefits; the deliberate choice of rates that were lower than those considered necessary to affect diet; and concerns about the potential of such FPs to harm economic outcomes such as employment.ConclusionThe findings underscore the need for high-quality systematic review evidence on this topic, and the importance of responding to public concerns and putting in place mechanisms to address these when implementing FPs. This study was funded by Safefood [02A-2020].Systematic review registrationPROSPERO registration no. CRD42021274454.
| S-EPMC10494142 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSocio-economic inequalities are associated with unequal exposure to social, economic and environmental risk factors, which in turn contribute to health inequalities. Understanding the impact of specific public health policy interventions will help to establish causality in terms of the effects on health inequalities.MethodsSystematic review methodology was used to identify systematic reviews from high-income countries that describe the health equity effects of upstream public health interventions. Twenty databases were searched from their start date until May 2017. The quality of the included articles was determined using the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews tool (AMSTAR).ResultsTwenty-nine systematic reviews were identified reporting 150 unique relevant primary studies. The reviews summarised evidence of all types of primary and secondary prevention policies (fiscal, regulation, education, preventative treatment and screening) across seven public health domains (tobacco, alcohol, food and nutrition, reproductive health services, the control of infectious diseases, the environment and workplace regulations). There were no systematic reviews of interventions targeting mental health. Results were mixed across the public health domains; some policy interventions were shown to reduce health inequalities (e.g. food subsidy programmes, immunisations), others have no effect and some interventions appear to increase inequalities (e.g. 20 mph and low emission zones). The quality of the included reviews (and their primary studies) were generally poor and clear gaps in the evidence base have been highlighted.ConclusionsThe review does tentatively suggest interventions that policy makers might use to reduce health inequalities, although whether the programmes are transferable between high-income countries remains unclear.Trial registrationPROSPERO registration number: CRD42016025283.
| S-EPMC6044092 | biostudies-literature