An approach to rapidly assess sepsis through multi-biomarker host response using machine learning algorithm.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Sardesai AU
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8377018 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Sepsis is a major cause of mortality among hospitalized patients worldwide. Shorter time to administration of broad-spectrum antibiotics is associated with improved outcomes, but early recognition of sepsis remains a major challenge. In a two-center cohort study with prospective sample collection from 1400 adult patients in emergency departments suspected of sepsis, we sought to determine the diagnostic and prognostic capabilities of a machine-learning algorithm based on clinical data and a set of uncommonly measured biomarkers. Specifically, we demonstrate that a machine-learning model developed using this dataset outputs a score with not only diagnostic capability but also prognostic power with respect to hospital length of stay (LOS), 30-day mortality, and 3-day inpatient re-admission both in our entire testing cohort and various subpopulations. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) for diagnosis of sepsis was 0.83. Predicted risk scores for patients with septic shock were higher compared with patients with sepsis but without shock (p < 0.0001). Scores for patients with infection and organ dysfunction were higher compared with those without either condition (p < 0.0001). Stratification based on predicted scores of the patients into low, medium, and high-risk groups showed significant differences in LOS (p < 0.0001), 30-day mortality (p < 0.0001), and 30-day inpatient readmission (p < 0.0001). In conclusion, a machine-learning algorithm based on electronic medical record (EMR) data and three nonroutinely measured biomarkers demonstrated good diagnostic and prognostic capability at the time of initial blood culture.
| S-EPMC8301583 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Sepsis is an organ failure disease caused by an infection resulting in extremely high mortality. Machine learning algorithms XGBoost and LightGBM are applied to construct two processing methods: mean processing method and feature generation method, aiming to predict early sepsis 6 hours in advance. The feature generation methods are constructed by combining different features, including statistical strength features, window features, and medical features. Miceforest multiple interpolation method is applied to tackle large missing data problems. Results show that the feature generation method outperforms the mean processing method. XGBoost and LightGBM algorithms are both excellent in prediction performance (AUC: 0.910∼0.979), among which LightGBM boasts a faster running speed and is stronger in generalization ability especially on multidimensional data, with AUC reaching 0.979 in the feature generation method. PTT, WBC, and platelets are the key risk factors to predict early sepsis.
| S-EPMC8526252 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDespite decades of research, sepsis remains a leading cause of mortality and morbidity in intensive care units worldwide. The key to effective management and patient outcome is early detection, for which no prospectively validated machine learning prediction algorithm is currently available for clinical use in Europe.ObjectiveWe aimed to develop a high-performance machine learning sepsis prediction algorithm based on routinely collected intensive care unit data, designed to be implemented in European intensive care units.MethodsThe machine learning algorithm was developed using convolutional neural networks, based on Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lab for Computational Physiology MIMIC-III clinical data from intensive care unit patients aged 18 years or older. The model uses 20 variables to produce hourly predictions of onset of sepsis, defined by international Sepsis-3 criteria. Predictive performance was externally validated using hold-out test data.ResultsThe algorithm-NAVOY Sepsis-uses 4 hours of input and can identify patients with high risk of developing sepsis, with high performance (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve 0.90; area under the precision-recall curve 0.62) for predictions up to 3 hours before sepsis onset.ConclusionsThe prediction performance of NAVOY Sepsis was superior to that of existing sepsis early warning scoring systems and comparable with those of other prediction algorithms designed to predict sepsis onset. The algorithm has excellent predictive properties and uses variables that are routinely collected in intensive care units.
| S-EPMC8517825 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Many physics problems involve integration in multi-dimensional space whose analytic solution is not available. The integrals can be evaluated using numerical integration methods, but it requires a large computational cost in some cases, so an efficient algorithm plays an important role in solving the physics problems. We propose a novel numerical multi-dimensional integration algorithm using machine learning (ML). After training a ML regression model to mimic a target integrand, the regression model is used to evaluate an approximation of the integral. Then, the difference between the approximation and the true answer is calculated to correct the bias in the approximation of the integral induced by ML prediction errors. Because of the bias correction, the final estimate of the integral is unbiased and has a statistically correct error estimation. Three ML models of multi-layer perceptron, gradient boosting decision tree, and Gaussian process regression algorithms are investigated. The performance of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated on six different families of integrands that typically appear in physics problems at various dimensions and integrand difficulties. The results show that, for the same total number of integrand evaluations, the new algorithm provides integral estimates with more than an order of magnitude smaller uncertainties than those of the VEGAS algorithm in most of the test cases.
| S-EPMC8460840 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background Since the beginning of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the development of predictive models has sparked relevant interest due to the initial lack of knowledge about diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis. The present study aimed at developing a model, through a machine learning approach, to predict intensive care unit (ICU) mortality in COVID-19 patients based on predefined clinical parameters. Results Observational multicenter cohort study. All COVID-19 adult patients admitted to 25 ICUs belonging to the VENETO ICU network (February 28th 2020-april 4th 2021) were enrolled. Patients admitted to the ICUs before 4th March 2021 were used for model training (“training set”), while patients admitted after the 5th of March 2021 were used for external validation (“test set 1”). A further group of patients (“test set 2”), admitted to the ICU of IRCCS Ca’ Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico of Milan, was used for external validation. A SuperLearner machine learning algorithm was applied for model development, and both internal and external validation was performed. Clinical variables available for the model were (i) age, gender, sequential organ failure assessment score, Charlson Comorbidity Index score (not adjusted for age), Palliative Performance Score; (ii) need of invasive mechanical ventilation, non-invasive mechanical ventilation, O2 therapy, vasoactive agents, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, continuous venous-venous hemofiltration, tracheostomy, re-intubation, prone position during ICU stay; and (iii) re-admission in ICU. One thousand two hundred ninety-three (80%) patients were included in the “training set”, while 124 (8%) and 199 (12%) patients were included in the “test set 1” and “test set 2,” respectively. Three different predictive models were developed. Each model included different sets of clinical variables. The three models showed similar predictive performances, with a training balanced accuracy that ranged between 0.72 and 0.90, while the cross-validation performance ranged from 0.75 to 0.85. Age was the leading predictor for all the considered models. Conclusions Our study provides a useful and reliable tool, through a machine learning approach, for predicting ICU mortality in COVID-19 patients. In all the estimated models, age was the variable showing the most important impact on mortality. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s44158-021-00002-x.
| S-EPMC8413709 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Accurate stratification of sepsis can effectively guide the triage of patient care and shared decision making in the emergency department (ED). However, previous research on sepsis identification models focused mainly on ICU patients, and discrepancies in model performance between the development and external validation datasets are rarely evaluated. The aim of our study was to develop and externally validate a machine learning model to stratify sepsis patients in the ED. We retrospectively collected clinical data from two geographically separate institutes that provided a different level of care at different time periods. The Sepsis-3 criteria were used as the reference standard in both datasets for identifying true sepsis cases. An eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm was developed to stratify sepsis patients and the performance of the model was compared with traditional clinical sepsis tools; quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) and Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS). There were 8296 patients (1752 (21%) being septic) in the development and 1744 patients (506 (29%) being septic) in the external validation datasets. The mortality of septic patients in the development and validation datasets was 13.5% and 17%, respectively. In the internal validation, XGBoost achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.86, exceeding SIRS (0.68) and qSOFA (0.56). The performance of XGBoost deteriorated in the external validation (the AUROC of XGBoost, SIRS and qSOFA was 0.75, 0.57 and 0.66, respectively). Heterogeneity in patient characteristics, such as sepsis prevalence, severity, age, comorbidity and infection focus, could reduce model performance. Our model showed good discriminative capabilities for the identification of sepsis patients and outperformed the existing sepsis identification tools. Implementation of the ML model in the ED can facilitate timely sepsis identification and treatment. However, dataset discrepancies should be carefully evaluated before implementing the ML approach in clinical practice. This finding reinforces the necessity for future studies to perform external validation to ensure the generalisability of any developed ML approaches.
| S-EPMC8623760 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a neurocognitive dysfunction based on metabolic disorders caused by severe liver disease, which has a high one-year mortality. Mild hepatic encephalopathy (MHE) has a high risk of converting to overt HE, and thus the accurate identification of MHE from cirrhosis with no HE (noHE) is of great significance in reducing mortality. Previously, most studies focused on studying abnormality in the static brain networks of MHE to find biomarkers. In this study, we aimed to use multi-layer modular algorithm to study abnormality in dynamic graph properties of brain network in MHE patients and construct a machine learning model to identify individual MHE from noHE. Here, a time length of 500-second resting-state functional MRI data were collected from 41 healthy subjects, 32 noHE patients and 30 MHE patients. Multi-layer modular algorithm was performed on dynamic brain functional connectivity graph. The connection-stability score was used to characterize the loyalty in each brain network module. Nodal flexibility, cohesion and disjointness were calculated to describe how the node changes the network affiliation across time. Results show that significant differences between MHE and noHE were found merely in nodal disjointness in higher cognitive network modules (ventral attention, fronto-parietal, default mode networks) and these abnormalities were associated with the decline in patients' attention and visual memory function evaluated by Digit Symbol Test. Finally, feature extraction from node disjointness with the support vector machine classifier showed an accuracy of 88.71% in discrimination of MHE from noHE, which was verified by different window sizes, modular partition parameters and machine learning parameters. All these results show that abnormal nodal disjointness in higher cognitive networks during brain network evolution can be seemed as a biomarker for identification of MHE, which help us understand the disease mechanism of MHE at a fine scale.
| S-EPMC7829502 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Tumor markers are used to screen tens of millions of individuals worldwide at annual health check-ups, especially in East Asia. Machine learning (ML)-based algorithms that improve the diagnostic accuracy and clinical utility of these tests can have substantial impact leading to the early diagnosis of cancer. ML-based algorithms, including a cancer screening algorithm and a secondary organ of origin algorithm, were developed and validated using a large real world dataset (RWD) from asymptomatic individuals undergoing routine cancer screening at a Taiwanese medical center between May 2001 and April 2015. External validation was performed using data from the same period from a separate medical center. The data set included tumor marker values, age, and gender from 27,938 individuals, including 342 subsequently confirmed cancer cases. Separate gender-specific cancer screening algorithms were developed. For men, a logistic regression-based algorithm outperformed single-marker and other ML-based algorithms, with a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.7654 in internal and 0.8736 in external cross validation. For women, a random forest-based algorithm attained a mean AUROC of 0.6665 in internal and 0.6938 in external cross validation. The median time to cancer diagnosis (TTD) in men was 451.5, 204.5, and 28 days for the mild, moderate, and high-risk groups, respectively; for women, the median TTD was 229, 132, and 125 days for the mild, moderate, and high-risk groups. A second algorithm was developed to predict the most likely affected organ systems for at-risk individuals. The algorithm yielded 0.8120 sensitivity and 0.6490 specificity for men, and 0.8170 sensitivity and 0.6750 specificity for women. ML-derived algorithms, trained and validated by using a RWD, can significantly improve tumor marker-based screening for multiple types of early stage cancers, suggest the tissue of origin, and provide guidance for patient follow-up.
| S-EPMC7352838 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Allergic and irritant contact dermatitis induces different immunological cascades, involving a plethora of immune cells as well as keratinocytes. 96 patients were investigated using mRNA microarray experiments, of which 88 passed our QC criteria. Patients were topically exposed to allergens (nickel (Ni), epoxy resin (EP) and methylchloroisothiazolinone (CM)), irritants (sodium lauryl sulfate (SL) and nonanoic acid (NO)) for 48 hours or were left untreated.
2020-09-01 | E-MTAB-9501 | biostudies-arrayexpress
Project description:Background: Sepsis-induced coagulopathy (SIC) denotes an increased mortality rate and poorer prognosis in septic patients. Objectives: Our study aimed to develop and validate machine-learning models to dynamically predict the risk of SIC in critically ill patients with sepsis. Methods: Machine-learning models were developed and validated based on two public databases named Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV and the eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD). Dynamic prediction of SIC involved an evaluation of the risk of SIC each day after the diagnosis of sepsis using 15 predictive models. The best model was selected based on its accuracy and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), followed by fine-grained hyperparameter adjustment using the Bayesian Optimization Algorithm. A compact model was developed, based on 15 features selected according to their importance and clinical availability. These two models were compared with Logistic Regression and SIC scores in terms of SIC prediction. Results: Of 11,362 patients in MIMIC-IV included in the final cohort, a total of 6,744 (59%) patients developed SIC during sepsis. The model named Categorical Boosting (CatBoost) had the greatest AUC in our study (0.869; 95% CI: 0.850-0.886). Coagulation profile and renal function indicators were the most important features for predicting SIC. A compact model was developed with an AUC of 0.854 (95% CI: 0.832-0.872), while the AUCs of Logistic Regression and SIC scores were 0.746 (95% CI: 0.735-0.755) and 0.709 (95% CI: 0.687-0.733), respectively. A cohort of 35,252 septic patients in eICU-CRD was analyzed. The AUCs of the full and the compact models in the external validation were 0.842 (95% CI: 0.837-0.846) and 0.803 (95% CI: 0.798-0.809), respectively, which were still larger than those of Logistic Regression (0.660; 95% CI: 0.653-0.667) and SIC scores (0.752; 95% CI: 0.747-0.757). Prediction results were illustrated by SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values, which made our models clinically interpretable. Conclusions: We developed two models which were able to dynamically predict the risk of SIC in septic patients better than conventional Logistic Regression and SIC scores.
| S-EPMC7859637 | biostudies-literature